ACTION Confidential COpy AUG 18 2014 Nate to the Deputy Secretary-General Protests in Pakistan tlt - (9l-4~~ 1. On 14 August, Pakistan's IndependenceDay, two opposition groups started ajoint march from Lahore to Islamabad in protest against the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz-Ied t rIo IL, Government of Pakistan. One group, forming the "Azadi (freedom/liberty) March", is led by , Mr. Imran Khan, whose.political party Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) won 34 seats in the National Assembly in the 2013 general elections and governs Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province. P'Tlhas accused Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party ofrigging last year's elections, in which PML-N won 189 seats in the National Assembly in the first democratic transition of power between two civilian governments in Pakistan's history. Khan is calling for Prime Minister Sharif to step down. 2. The second group is led by the moderate yet controversial cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri and his Pakistan Awami Tehrik Party (PAT), who claim that the Government is corrupt and calls for its resignation, Both PIJ and PAT suggest that an interim, technocrat government should be appointed before new elections take place. Ul-Qadri's supporters were involved in heavy clashes with the police in Lahore in recent days, leading to at least two deaths. TIle cleric was also behind a large sit-in rally'in Islamabad in January 2013, accusing the then­ government ofthe People's Party or Pakistan (PPP) ofcorruption. The government then eventually signed an agreement with ul-Qadri (the Islamabad Long March Declaration), which promised electoral reforms and·increased political transparency. Critics then claimed that the protests were organized by the military to delay elections and weaken the civilian government. 3. Prime Minister Sharif, in an effort to calm tensions, has pledged an independent and transparent probe into the opposition's allegations of electoral fraud. The Government has' reportedly now started to take steps to establish a judicial commission to investigatethe 2013 elections. While the Lahore High Court on 13 August issued an order prohibiting "unconstitutional" protests or sit-ins, Sharifhas since given his approval for the marches to proceed. Security in Islamabad has reportedly been heavily increased, with as many as 20,000 police and security forces being deployed, most of the roads leading in to the city blocked and mobile phone services disrupted. 4. The protest rally reached Islamabad late evening on 15 August. So far, the arrival of thousands of marchers, who have also poured in from other parts ofthe country, such as . Peshawar in the north.has not led to any violence in the capital, although clashes erupted earlier in the day in the city ofGujranwala, when supporters ofPML-N attacked Imran Khan's convoy. Shots were reportedly fired at Mr. Khan but no serious injuries were reported. 5. Given Pakistan's history ofrepeated military coups, including during Mr. Sharif's last stint in power, there is some COnCelTI that a lengthy stand-off or an eruption of violence in relation to the protest rallies could lead to military intervention. The allegedly deteriorating relations between the civilian government and the military over issues such as how to tackle the Taliban and the trial of General Musharraffurther fuel such speculations, and some claim that the military is quietly supporting PTI aridPAT. Because.of.concern over possible ~ '. .. ..... :"0" ~ \ ,' L.~, .; Jo ...(' '.J", ".' .'.- 2 retaliatory terrorist attacks in "response to the military operation in North Waziristan, the Government already on 25 July called in the army to protect Islamabad. The military has accordingly been in charge ofsecurity in the capital since 1 August. 6. However, there are few indications that the military establishment is eager to take direct power in Pakistan. Instead,"it is likely that this situation will strengthenthe capacity ofthe military to dictate the actions ofthe government. Rumours that Mr. Khan may be open to negotiating with the Government on a set ofdemands instead ofdemanding Sharifs resignation, and reports ofa possible deal between the PML-N and the PII brokered by the military, seem to support this theory. Nevertheless, the tensions are high and the potential of violence remains. 7. Mr. Imran Khan will reportedly address the crowds, estimated by PTI to reach 100,000, in the next hours. DPA will continue to follow and report on the situation over the next few days..