Development of Ontario ShakeMaps by SanLinn Isma'il Kaka A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Earth Sciences Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario, Canada December, 2005 © SanLinn I. Kaka, 2005 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 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Abstract A methodology to generate simple, reliable ShakeMaps showing earthquake ground shaking in Southern Ontario is developed using the near-real-time data from Ontario POLARIS (Portable Observatories for Lithospheric Analysis and Research Investigating Seismicity) stations. ShakeMaps have been implemented in California and the western United States (Wald et al, 1999b), but this is the first ShakeMap development in eastern North America. The eastern ground motion characteristics and sparse network pose new challenges for ShakeMap development in this region. The ground motion parameters selected to display in the near-real-time ShakeMaps include peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak velocity (PGV), Pseudo­ acceleration (PSA) amplitude at periods of 0.1s, 0.3s and 1.0s, and an instrumentally derived felt-intensity. The ground motion values are plotted on a map and contour lines are added to show areas of equally-strong shaking. In the ShakeMaps, PGA, PGV, and PSA values are assigned to map grid points by using a combination of the recorded ground motions and values estimated using the empirical relations developed in Chapter 6. Intensity values are estimated from the peak ground velocity using relations developed in Chapter 5, where the intensity is a qualitative measure of the strength of shaking and damage based on the Modified Mercalli scale. A grid of site amplification factors to account for the appropriate level of soil amplification is incorporated, by using interpolations of currently-available site conditions. The site classification is based primarily on the average shear-wave velocity of the top 30 meters (Vs ) wherever possible. Since shear-wave velocity measurements iii Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. are not available for most grid points, I assume Vs30 =500 m/s for sites with unknown properties. An important component of ShakeMap is its potential use as a rapid earthquake warning system. ShakeMap sends email notifications to subscribers immediately (within 3 minutes) following an earthquake, giving information on motions experienced at specific sites of interest, such as nuclear power plant sites. Near-real time ShakeMaps are automatically produced and posted within 7 minutes at (http://www.shakemap.carleton.cay This development is a significant step forward in the development of near-real-time seismic information relevant to post-earthquake rapid warning systems in Canada. iv Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Acknowledgments I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr. Gail Atkinson, for her guidance, support, and patience as well as for providing various opportunities. This work could not have accomplished without the collaborative efforts of David McCormack, John Adams, and Tim Cote of the Geological Survey of Canada and Bill Jack of Carleton University. I thank Siew Ling Soh, Jianling Hua, Sathyanarayanan Sivadas and Niruban Kandasamy for computer programming and Eleanor Sonley, Maurice Lamontagne, David Wald and James Hunter for their useful comments and suggestions. I thank Jim Lyons, Janet Drysdale, Nina Markova, Sylvia and Stephen Halchuk from the Geological Survey of Canada for providing me with data and Aaron Snider and Curtis Brett for their support in the field. I would also like to thank all members in the department of Earth Sciences particularly Eleanor Sonley, Sharon Carr, George Dix, Juan Carlos Afonso, Dariush Motazedian, John Blenkinsop, Giorgio Ranalli, and Chris Rogers for their support. My special thanks to my parents for their constant moral support, my wife for her tremendous patience and my children for their love. v Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Original Contribution This thesis contains only the results of the research conducted by the candidate under the supervision of his supervisor. The original contributions are summarized as follows: Acquiring all the necessary computer software programs needed for the thesis, installing and testing them. Incorporating region-specific features into the software such as origin point of the estimate grid, station parameters/locations/names, contour interval, topography and major city names. Computing science students assisted with programming for these tasks, under my direction. Retrieving data from various sources as follows. Instrumental data: • Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), Automatic Data Request Manager facility (www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/nwfa/autodrm). • Ground Motion Database complied by Atkinson and Mereu (1992) • Strong Motion records for the Saguenay earthquake of November 25, 1988 by Munro and Weichert (1989) (available at GSC, Open File 1996). • The U.S. Geological Survey’s Automatic Data Request Manager (http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/autodrm). MMI data: • Geological Survey of Canada, Observatory Crescent ([email protected]. gc.ca). • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States Department of Commerce (http ://www.noaa.gov/). vi Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. • Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) data of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes given by Hough et al. (2000). Developing a new relationship between Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) and peak ground motions (PGV and PSA (f)) by comparing instrumentally-recorded and inferred-historical PGV values to observed MMI for eighteen significant earthquakes from eastern North America (ENA). Developing empirical relations that describe ground-motion amplitudes from earthquakes of 2 < M < 6 at regional distances of 10-500 km in southeastern Canada and the northeastern United States, for ShakeMap applications. Developing an automated earthquake detection algorithm to continuously detect events and trigger ShakeMap in a sparse network. Modifying and implementing a version of the ground-motion centroid program developed by Kanamori (1993) to locate earthquakes and estimate magnitude in near- real-time. Defining a grid of site amplification correction factor by: • studying the surficial geologic maps of the region • calculating horizontal-to-vertical component ratios of recorded ground motions • compiling available shear-wave velocity and borehole information • carrying out shear-wave velocity survey at two POLARIS sites The material presented in Chapter 2 is compiled from various documentation, including a paper by Wald et al. (1999b) of the U.S. Geological Survey, and information vii Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. available at various ShakeMap web sites including the web site developed in this thesis and maintained by Carleton University http://www.shakemap.carleton.ca/about.html. The material presented in Chapter 3 is compiled mainly from the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), Ontario Geological Survey (OGS), the Ontario Ministry of Northern Development and Mines and other documentation. Appropriate