Southeast Florida’s Resilient Water Resources Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Other Impacts of Climate Change Miami Fort Lauderdale Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions at Florida Atlantic University 11/15/2009 Figure 1 – Schematic diagram of the hydrological cycle in Southeast Florida. Southeast Florida receives approximately 60 inches of year annually. Most of Southeast Florida sits on the Biscayne Aquifer, an open coastal aquifer of high porosity and transmissivity. (Graphic: USGS) Southeast Florida’s Resilient Water Resources Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Other Impacts of Climate Change Barry N. Heimlich, Lead Researcher Frederick Bloetscher, Ph.D., P.E. Daniel E. Meeroff, Ph.D., E.I. James Murley, Principal Investigator Case Study: Frederick Bloetscher, Ph.D., P.E. Daniel E. Meeroff, Ph.D., E.I. Barry N. Heimlich, M.S.E. A Research Project of: Florida Atlantic University Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions and Department of Civil Engineering, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering Sponsored by: National Commission on Energy Policy BIPARTISAN POLICY CENTER Table of Contents Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgment ......................................................................................................................................... vi About the Authors ...................................................................................................................................... vii 1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Unforeseen Near-term Consequences ......................................................................................... 2 1.2 Major Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Major Recommendations: ............................................................................................................ 3 2 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Project Goals ............................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 10 3 Southeast Florida’s Topography, Geology, Climate, and Hydrology .................................................. 12 3.1 Topography ................................................................................................................................. 12 3.2 Geology ....................................................................................................................................... 13 3.3 Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 15 3.4 Hydrology .................................................................................................................................... 18 4 Climate Change Impacts on Southeast Florida’s Water Resources .................................................... 24 4.1 Sea Level Rise .............................................................................................................................. 26 4.2 Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Southeast Florida’s Water Resources ........................................... 33 4.3 Rainfall Patterns .......................................................................................................................... 46 4.4 Hurricanes and Tropical Storms .................................................................................................. 47 4.5 Elevated Temperatures ............................................................................................................... 48 4.6 Climate Change Impacts in Combination .................................................................................... 49 5 Toolbox for Protecting Water Resources ............................................................................................ 53 5.1 Water Conservation .................................................................................................................... 53 5.2 Protection of Existing Water Sources ......................................................................................... 55 5.3 Development of Alternative Water Sources ............................................................................... 59 5.4 Wastewater Reclaim and Reuse ................................................................................................. 68 5.5 Regionalization of Alternative Water Supplies and Reclamation Projects ................................. 70 5.6 Wastewater Alternatives ............................................................................................................ 71 5.7 Recharging the Everglades .......................................................................................................... 74 5.8 Reengineering Canal Systems, Control Structures, and Pumping .............................................. 76 6 Case Study– Lessons Learned from a Model Municipal Water Utility ................................................ 77 7 Adaptive Management as Applied to Water Resource Resiliency...................................................... 80 8 Adaptive Planning Framework ............................................................................................................ 84 8.1 Issues to Consider ....................................................................................................................... 84 8.2 Major Questions ......................................................................................................................... 86 8.3 Major Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 86 9 Strategic Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 87 10 Policy Recommendations ................................................................................................................ 88 10.1 State and Local Government Policy Recommendations ............................................................. 88 10.2 Federal/Regional Government Policy Recommendations .......................................................... 89 11 Recommendations for Future Research ......................................................................................... 89 Appendix A - Case Study of a City Water Utility ......................................................................................... 91 Appendix B – Contributors and Reviewers ................................................................................................. 92 Appendix C – Method for Forecasting Sea Level Rise ................................................................................. 94 Appendix D – Estimated Capacity Loss of Coastal Structures ..................................................................... 97 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................................. 104 Related References ................................................................................................................................... 106 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. 109 List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ 109 Acknowledgment The authors wish to acknowledge its sponsors, the National Commission for Energy Policy, an initiative of the Bipartisan Policy Center, for funding this research project and to David Rosner and Sasha Mackler for their guidance and encouragement. The authors express their appreciation to Jim Murley, the project’s Principal Investigator and Director of the Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions at Florida Atlantic University, for his vision, insight and support. This research relied heavily upon input from 35 experts who generously donated their time and expertise in open consultations both in person and over the telephone. They are listed with their titles and affiliations in Appendix B. Those who participated in consultations in person and over the telephone include: John Abbott, P.G.; Bevin Beaudet, P.E.; Leonard Berry, Ph.D.; William Brant, P.E.; Randolph Brown, M.B.A.; Albert Carbon, P.E.; Lynette Cardoch, Ph.D.; Michael Davis, Ph.D.; Patrick Davis, P.E.; Shannon Estenoz; Susan Glickman; Rohit Goswami, Ph.D.; Howard Hanson, Ph.D.; Christian Langevin, Ph.D.; David Major, Ph.D.; Sean McCrackine; Donald McNeill, Ph.D., P.G.; Victoria Morrow, GISP; John Mulliken; Albert Perez, P.E.; Robert Renken; Winnie Said; Leo Schwartzberg, P.E., C.E.P.; Georgio Tachiev, Ph.D.; Lenny Vialpando, P.E.; Hal Wanless, Ph.D.; and Michael Zygnerski, Ph.D. The report was reviewed by: John Abbott, P.G.; George Cavros, Esq.; John Crouse, P.E.; Rohit Goswami, Ph.D.; Dan