SHAPING SUSTAINABLE VEHICLE FLEET CONVERSION POLICIES BASED ON LIFE CYCLE OPTIMIZATION AND RISK ANALYSIS by Hyung Chul Kim A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Natural Resources and Environment) in The University of Michigan 2003 Doctoral Committee: Associate Professor Gregory A. Keoleian, Co-Chair Professor Jonathan W. Bulkley, Co-Chair Professor James C. Bean Professor Marc H. Ross James H. Lindner, US EPA Hyung Chul Kim © 2003 All Rights Reserved for my parents ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I would like to offer my sincerest thanks to my University of Michigan committee members: to my co-chair, Professor Gregory Keoleian, for his encouragement and careful and wise guidance of my project; to my co-chair, Professor Jonathan Bulkley, for his kind advice and academic support; to Professor Marc Ross for always answering my inquiries so thoughtfully and promptly; and to Professor James Bean for his time and help in solving technical problems. In addition, Dr. Jim Lindner at the US Environmental Protection Agency provided me with invaluable information and direction. This research would have never been completed without support from outside the university. I am deeply grateful to Kevin Cullen, Terry Cullum, and Ronald Williams at General Motors for providing me with both technical and financial support in the early stages of this research. Special gratitude is also extended to John Walls at the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality for the essential data and kind answers to my questions. I thank Ruth Kraut for her advice throughout the writing process. Her help dramatically improved this dissertation. Many thanks are also due to Darby Grande for her suggestions and for other help during the modeling process. I have been helped and encouraged by many people at the Center for Sustainable Systems at the School of Natural Resources and Environment in one way or another. I would like to single out several people for special thanks: Martin Heller, Helaine Hunscher, and Marc Melaina. iii Finally, I thank all of my friends in Ann Arbor, who have been with me throughout this critical period in my life. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... viii LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xi LIST OF APPENDICES ............................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................1 1.1 High-Emitters.............................................................................3 1.2 Scrappage Program ....................................................................5 1.3 Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Programs ............................8 1.4 Problem Statements .................................................................12 1.5 Dissertation Outline .................................................................14 II. DYNAMIC LIFE CYCLE INVENTORY......................................................17 2.1 Vehicle LCA ............................................................................17 2.2 Dynamic LCI Conceptual Structure.........................................19 2.3 Dynamic LCI Modeling for a Generic Vehicle .......................22 2.3.1 Materials Production.................................................24 2.3.2 Manufacturing...........................................................25 2.3.3 Use ............................................................................26 2.3.4 Maintenance..............................................................28 2.3.5 End-of-Life ...............................................................29 2.4 Dynamic LCI Parameters for a Generic Vehicle .....................30 2.4.1 Recycled Content......................................................30 2.4.2 Materials Use ............................................................33 2.4.3 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) ................................34 2.4.4 Energy Intensity........................................................34 2.4.5 Fuel Economy ...........................................................45 2.4.6 Emission Factors.......................................................47 2.4.7 Component Reliability..............................................54 2.5 Results and Discussion ............................................................55 2.6 Conclusion ...............................................................................62 v III. OPTIMAL VEHICLE LIFE BASED ON LIFE CYCLE OPTIMIZATION MODEL..............................................................................63 3.1 Introduction..............................................................................63 3.2 Life Cycle Optimization (LCO) Model ...................................64 3.2.1 Dynamic Programming.............................................64 3.2.2 Model Construction ..................................................65 3.2.3 Model Application ....................................................69 3.3 Results and Discussion ............................................................70 3.3.1 Optimal Lifetimes for Mid-Sized Cars .....................70 3.3.2 Determinants of Optimal Lifetime............................73 3.3.3 Policy Implications ...................................................76 3.4 Conclusion ...............................................................................78 IV. OPTIMAL VEHICLE LIFE BASED ON FLEET OPTIMIZATION MODEL .............................................................................................................80 4.1 Introduction..............................................................................80 4.2 Fleet Characterization ..............................................................81 4.3 Sources of Emissions ...............................................................84 4.4 Fleet Optimization Modeling...................................................85 4.4.1 Baseline Fleet............................................................85 4.4.2 Fleet Optimization Scheme.......................................87 4.4.3 Mathematical Modeling............................................88 4.5 Results......................................................................................90 4.5.1 Ideal Fleet Conversion ..............................................91 4.5.2 Long-Term Fleet Conversion....................................92 4.5.3 Emission Reductions.................................................94 4.5.4 Multi-Objective Analysis..........................................94 4.5.5 Sensitivity of Results ................................................98 4.6 Discussion................................................................................99 4.6.1 Fleet Conversion Policy............................................99 4.6.2 Multi-Objective Analysis........................................101 4.7 Conclusion .............................................................................102 V. IMPROVING INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS USING RISK ANALYSIS OF EMISSION CONTROL SYSTEMS .........104 5.1 Introduction............................................................................104 5.2 Fault Tree Analysis of Emission Control Systems ................106 5.2.1 Emission Control Systems ......................................108 5.3 Analysis of IM147 Records ...................................................116 5.3.1 Overview of the Arizona IM147 Tests ...................116 5.3.2 Overview of I/M Repairs ........................................122 5.3.3 Repairs of CO High-Emitters..................................135 5.3.4 Repairs of NOx High-Emitters ...............................137 5.3.5 Repairs of HC/CO High-Emitters...........................140 5.3.6 Repairs of HC/CO/NOx High-Emitters..................144 5.3.7 I/M Analysis Based on Manufacturers ...................146 vi 5.4 Emission Reductions through I/M Program ..........................148 5.4.1 Cars Tested During both 2000 and 2002 I/M Cycles......................................................................149 5.4.2 All Cars Tested .......................................................151 5.5 High-Emitter Contributions to Fleet Emissions.....................155 5.6 I/M versus Scrappage Policy Examinations ..........................157 5.7 Scrappage Policies from a Life Cycle Perspective ................161 5.8 Conclusion .............................................................................169 VI. CONCLUSION ...............................................................................................172 6.1 Research Scope and Key Findings.........................................172 6.2 Policy Implications ................................................................175 6.3 Future Research .....................................................................177 APPENDICES................................................................................................................179 BIBLIOGRAPHY..........................................................................................................221