Jyrki Luukkanen, Peter Kuria, Mira Käkönen, Kamilla Karhunmaa, Joni Karjalainen, Rasna Warah, Colman Msoka and Kaisa Toroskainen KENYA AND TANZANIA BEYOND 2015: Exploring Domestic Debates and Envisioning Development Futures FINLAND FUTURES RESEARCH CENTRE Report to the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland 1 This report has been carried out under the BEYOND 2015 project (Kenya and Tanzania Beyond 2015: Exploring domestic debates and envisioning development futures), a commissioned research funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. All views presented in the text are those by the Research Cen- tre and its team, and do not represent the views of the Ministry. Contributors to this report (in alphabetical order): Kamilla Karhunmaa Joni Karjalainen Peter Kuria Mira Käkönen Jyrki Luukkanen Lotta Maijala Colman Msoka Noora Stenholm Kaisa Toroskainen Rasna Warah Research Leader: Jyrki Luukkanen, D.Tech, Research Director, Adjunct Professor Finland Futures Research Centre (Tampere office) Turku School of Economics, University of Turku Yliopistonkatu 58 D, 33100 Tampere, Finland E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +358 50 337 0710 Copyright © 2014 Writers & Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku FINLAND FUTURES RESEARCH CENTRE Turku School of Economics FI-20014 University of Turku Turku: Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, FI-20500 Turku Helsinki: Korkeavuorenkatu 25 A 2, FI-00130 Helsinki Tampere: Yliopistonkatu 58 D, FI-33100 Tampere Tel. +358 2 333 9530 utu.fi/ffrc [email protected], [email protected] 2 CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................................................ 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................... 6 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 14 1.1. Background and motivation ....................................................................................................... 14 1.2. Objectives and scope ................................................................................................................ 15 1.3. Methods and materials .............................................................................................................. 16 1.4. Structure of the report ............................................................................................................... 19 2. THE INTERNATIONAL DEBATE ON MDGS, SDGS AND EMERGING TENSIONS ...................... 20 2.1. Negotiating and implementing the MDGs ................................................................................. 20 2.2. Post-2015 Processes: Sustainable Development Goals and Emerging Tensions ................... 24 2.3. African positioning and the emerging voices from within .......................................................... 26 2.4. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 28 3. MDG RELEVANCE AND POST-2015 DEBATES IN TANZANIA ..................................................... 29 3.1. Tanzanian development policies in the context of MDGs ......................................................... 29 3.2. MDG performance in Tanzania ................................................................................................. 35 3.3. Reflections on the MDG relevance in Tanzania ........................................................................ 38 3.4. Outcomes and concerns of post-2015 consultations in Tanzania ............................................ 39 3.5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 44 4. EXPERIENCES WITH MDGS AND DOMESTIC DEBATES AROUND POST-2015 IN KENYA ..... 45 4.1 MDGs in the context of Kenya’s national policies ..................................................................... 45 4.2 Influence and challenges of mainstreaming MDGs to national policies .................................... 50 4.3 MDG performance in Kenya ...................................................................................................... 53 4.4 Resourcing the MDGs in Kenya ................................................................................................ 58 4.5 Post-2015 consultations in Kenya ............................................................................................. 60 4.6 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 68 5. VIEWS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR RESOURCING POVERTY REDUCTION IN KENYA AND TANZANIA: ROLE OF DOMESTIC RESOURCE MOBILISATION AND ODA? ...................... 70 5.1. The context of post-2015 negotiations ...................................................................................... 70 5.2. Emerging African and East-African dynamics ........................................................................... 72 5.3. Kenya: Mega-infrastructure projects amidst high income inequality ......................................... 75 5.4. Tanzania: Challenges for the achievement of economic transformation .................................. 82 5.5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 88 3 6. SUSTAINABLE NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND ENERGY ISSUES IN THE POST- 2015 FRAMEWORK .......................................................................................................................... 90 6.1 Kenya and Tanzania: Emerging countries in a globally structured extractive industry ............. 91 6.2. Political, legal and social accountability towards citizens .......................................................... 98 6.3. Challenges of spill-over effects and employment .................................................................... 100 6.4 Natural gas, oil and coal against renewable energy ............................................................... 102 6.5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 105 7. CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................................................. 109 8. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................... 115 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 126 ANNEX 1: WORKSHOP INVITATION AND PROGRAM FOR KENYA AND TANZANIA ......................... 139 ANNEX 2: LISTS OF WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVIEWEES .......................................... 142 4 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACORD Agency for Cooperation and Research in Development AfDB African Development Bank AU African Union BRN Big Results Now (in Tanzania) CBDR Common but differentiated responsibilities CSD Commission on Sustainable Development CSR Corporate social responsibility EAC East African Community ECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative FYDP Five-Year Development Plan (in Tanzania) HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries HLPF High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development ICC International Criminal Court MDG Millennium Development Goals MDG+ Millennium Development Goals Plus MIC Middle income country MTPs 5-Year Medium-term Plans (in Kenya) NSGRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (known more commonly in Tanzania as Mkukuta) NEPAD New Economic Partnership for Africa’s Development ODA Official development assistance PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper SAP Structural Adjustment Programme SCP Sustainable consumption and production SDGs Sustainable Development Goals TDV 2025 Tanzania Development Vision 2025 UN CSD United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) UNGC United Nations Global Compact UN HLP United Nations High-level Panel On Post-2015 Development Agenda UNSG United Nations Secretary-General WSSD World Summit on Sustainable Development 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On the road towards the post-2015 development framework, the “Beyond 2015: Exploring Domestic De- bates and Envisioning Development Futures” report presents views from Kenya and Tanzania to comple- ment the post-2015 debate that thus far has taken place mostly at the international policy circles. The report is based on over fifty interviews in Kenya, Tanzania and Finland and ten workshops carried out in the first half of 2013. The research has been commissioned by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. All views presented in the text are those of the research team and do not represent the views of the Ministry. MDGs, SDGs and African post-2015 expectations The discussion around the post-2015 international development framework emerges from two tracks: the expiration of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which are a result of the UN Millennium Dec- laration in 2000; as well as the initiative of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with emphasis on a holistic approach to environment and development. In September 2013, the UN General Assembly decided to continue negotiations on a post-2015 development agenda through a ‘one-track’ approach,