Small Unmanned Aerial System Adversary Capabilities BRADLEY WILSON, SHANE TIERNEY, BRENDAN TOLAND, RACHEL M. BURNS, COLBY PEYTON STEINER, CHRISTOPHER SCOTT ADAMS, MICHAEL NIXON, RAZA KHAN, MICHELLE D. ZIEGLER, JAN OSBURG, IKE CHANG HS AC HOMELAND SECURITY OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS CENTER An FFRDC operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHS Published in 2020 Preface This report describes current and projected performance capabilities and limitations of small unmanned aerial systems (sUASs), also known as drones. Specifically, it provides a component-level assessment of sUAS technologies. The analysis captured the potential capabilities and limitations of these platforms, with the results of the analysis intended to help the program office inform strategic policy and investment decisions to counter UAS threats to prevent strategic surprise. This document is intended to be updated at least annually by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate’s Program Executive Office for Unmanned Aerial Systems. This research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and conducted within the Acquisition and Development Program of the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) federally funded research and development center (FFRDC). About the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center The Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of Public Law 107-296, as codified at 6 U.S.C. § 185) authorizes the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, to establish one or more FFRDCs to pro- vide independent analysis of homeland security issues. The RAND Corporation oper- ates HSOAC as an FFRDC for DHS under contract HSHQDC-16-D-00007. The HSOAC FFRDC provides the government with independent and objective analyses and advice in core areas important to the department in support of policy development, decisionmaking, alternative approaches, and new ideas on issues of sig- nificance. The HSOAC FFRDC also works with and supports other federal, state, local, tribal, and public- and private-sector organizations that make up the homeland security enterprise. The HSOAC FFRDC’s research is undertaken by mutual consent with DHS and is organized as a set of discrete tasks. This report presents the results of research and analysis conducted under 70RSAT18FR0000037, Unmanned Aerial Systems Adversary Capabilities. iii iv Small Unmanned Aerial System Adversary Capabilities The results presented in this report do not necessarily reflect official DHS opin- ion or policy. For more information on HSOAC, see www.rand.org/hsoac. For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3023. Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures .................................................................................................vii Tables .................................................................................................. ix Summary .............................................................................................. xi Acknowledgments ................................................................................. xvii Abbreviations ........................................................................................ xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Background and Purpose ............................................................................. 1 Study Development .................................................................................... 2 Data-Gathering Methodology ........................................................................ 3 Scoping the sUAS Market ............................................................................. 3 Organization of This Report ........................................................................12 CHAPTER TWO Technology Capability Assessment ...............................................................13 Airframes ...............................................................................................13 Payloads and Sensors ..................................................................................18 Command, Control, and Communications ...................................................... 30 Propulsion System and Power Supply .............................................................. 42 Software Security .....................................................................................51 Summary of Findings from the Technology Capability Assessment ............................53 CHAPTER THREE Performance Analysis ...............................................................................55 Data Completeness....................................................................................55 Maximum Range and Endurance ...................................................................55 Payload Weight ....................................................................................... 60 Maximum Speed ......................................................................................61 Variation in Performance Metrics by Stated Intent ...............................................62 v vi Small Unmanned Aerial System Adversary Capabilities Summary of Findings from the Performance Analysis .......................................... 64 CHAPTER FOUR Novel and Likely Nefarious Tactical Use Cases ................................................67 Case Studies of Likely and High-Impact Scenarios ...............................................72 Modeling sUAS Attacks ............................................................................. 84 Summary of Findings from Nefarious Use Case Analysis ...................................... 86 CHAPTER FIVE sUAS Detectability ................................................................................. 87 Radar .................................................................................................. 88 EO/IR Sensors ........................................................................................ 98 ELINT Sensors ...................................................................................... 105 Acoustic Sensors ..................................................................................... 107 LIDAR Sensors ...................................................................................... 109 Summary of Findings from the Detectability Analysis ......................................... 110 CHAPTER SIX Conclusions ......................................................................................... 113 References ........................................................................................... 117 Figures 1.1. Frequency of sUAS Manufacturers in the Data Set .................................. 5 1.2. Drone II Company Rankings, Third Quarter 2016 .................................. 6 1.3. Weight of Various DJI Phantom Models, 2013–2018 ................................ 8 1.4. Maximum Flight Time of Various DJI Phantom Models, 2013–2018 ............ 9 1.5. Maximum Speed of Various DJI Phantom Models, 2013–2018 ...................10 1.6. Maximum Communication Distance of Various DJI Phantom Models, 2013–2018 ................................................................................10 1.7. Model Maximum Flight Times of Various DJI Industrial Models, 2013–2018 ................................................................................11 1.8. Maximum Payload Weight of Various DJI Industrial Models, 2013–2018 ......12 2.1. Airframe Design .........................................................................13 2.2. Rotorcraft Design ........................................................................14 2.3. Primary sUAS Airframe Material ......................................................16 2.4. Required GNSS Jam Power Versus Unobstructed Range and J/S ................ 22 2.5. Cell RF Jam Power Required .......................................................... 24 2.6. Walden Curve Showing a Tenfold Increase in A/D Speed Over Ten Years ......25 2.7. CPU and GPU Theoretical Peaks .....................................................29 2.8. Control and Telemetry Spectrum Use ............................................... 36 2.9. Control and Telemetry General Spectrum Use ......................................37 2.10. Endurance Estimation Algorithm Tested Against Reported DJI Phantom Specifications ............................................................................ 44 2.11. Range Estimation for DJI Phantom Series (Standard Only) ...................... 46 3.1. Missing Performance Metric Data in the Database ................................ 56 3.2. Missing Speed Metric Data in the Database ........................................ 56 3.3. Types of Platforms in the Database ....................................................57 3.4. Maximum Range of Listed Models, by Platform Type .............................57 3.5. Maximum Range of Listed Models for Platforms with Maximum Ranges Under 400 Miles, by Platform Type ...................................................58 3.6. Endurance of Listed Models, by Platform Type .....................................59 3.7. Endurance of Listed Models for Platforms with Endurance Under 24 Hours, by Platform Type ............................................................59