WFP Market Monitor - Sudan March 2021 Highlights - The national average retail price of sorghum was SDG98.21/kg, which is slight increase by 0.90% compared to the previous month. - The national average retail price of Wheat flour was SDG261.9/kg, which is an increase by 7.89% compared to the previous month. - The national average retail price of goat was SDG8,547/head, which is an increase by 13.05% compared to the previous month. - The national average retail price of groundnut was SDG8,361/sack, which is an increase by 16.80% compared to the previous month. - The national average cost of local food basket was SDG149.5, which is a decrease by 1.43% compared to the previous month. - Food Security Outlook Commodity Unit of Current Previous month 1 year before measurement SDG SDG % Change SDG % Change Sorghum KG 98.21 97.33 0.90% 34.95 181.00% Wheat flour KG 261.9 242.75 7.89% 73.8 254.88% Goat Head 8,547 7,561 13.05% 4,203 103.35% Groundnut Sack (45 KG) 8,361 7,159 16.80% 1,724 384.91% Local Food Basket Unit 149.5 151.67 -1.43% 52.94 182.4% In March, the average cost of local food basket is slightly decreased to 149.5 SDG. The exchange rate policy change is likely to have impact on the food prices which clearly captured in the local food basket cost that slightly decreased compared to the previous month, which will be monitored closely by WFP. The Sudanese currency since mid-February 2021 was traded around 378 to 381 SDG for 1 US$, on average., in both official and parallel markets. There was tremendous increase in the inflation rates during the previous months (304.33 percent in January 2021 and 330.78 percent in February 2021). There was an improvement in the casual labor wage-daily rate, which increased by 11.0 percent in March 2021 compared to previous month, that could improve the purchasing power of the population and mitigate the impact of high food prices. WFP Local Food Basket Cost (LFB) versus Inflation Rate 350 160 300 LFB cost Inflation rate 140 250 120 100 200 151.67 149.50 80 150 60 100 40 Inflation Rate Inflation 50 20 0 0 unit SDG/1cost: LFB Jan Jan Jan Oct Oct Feb Sep Feb Sep Feb July July Dec Dec Aug Aug Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar May May June June April April 2019 2020 2021 MARCH 2021 Sorghum Prices and Supplies in Al Gadarif Auction Market 7,326 8,000 7,225 7,007 6,894 7,200 6,813 5,939 5,939 5,897 5,722 6,400 5,445 5,600 4,800 4,433 3,757 3,625 4,000 3,134 2,675 3,200 2,399 2,129 SDG/Sack 1,674 1,674 1,656 1,640 1,600 1,556 1,527 2,400 1,500 1,366 1,364 1,153 1,600 887 800 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2021 In March 2021, the average price of sorghum in El-Gadarif market was SDG6,894/90Kg sack, which is a decrease by 5.9 percent compared to the previous month and 120 percent higher compared to the same month of the previous year (March 2020). The total supply of the new harvest of sorghum (November 2020 – March 2021) is around MT282,727 compared to MT177,374 for the same period of the previous season, which is an increase by 59.4 percent. Note: the average production of sorghum in EL-Gadarif state is estimated by about 22% of the total Sudan production based on the previous 5 years average (source: CFSAM 2019-2020). 120,000 110,000 100,000 83,334 90,000 82,455 79,488 77,703 80,000 66,788 70,000 66,358 60,118 60,000 MT 48,051 47,974 43,094 50,000 42,197 40,000 32,125 30,000 24,866 20,000 17,069 6,022 4,309 1,707 10,000 1,244 176 153 112 85 NA NA NA NA NA - JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2019 2020 2021 2 March 2021 Commodities Prices in WFP Areas Wheat Flour National In March 2021, the average retail price of Wheat Price - National Avrage wheat flour was 261.9 Sudanese pound per 300 Kg, which is an increase by 7.89 percent 270 compared to February 2021. This is mainly 240 due to the huge deterioration in the Sudanese 210 currency, during the January and early 180 150 February 2021, and liberalization of the SDG/Kg 120 exchange rate in mid february, as Sudan is 90 mainly depend on the importation of most of 60 its needs wheat (estimated at 70-80%). The 30 0 average retail price of wheat was 254.88 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec percent higher than the same period of the 2020 2021 previous year. By States Wheat Flour Prices 320 280 317 300 300 240 300 298 281 272 268 262 260 200 258 257 254 252 250 250 250 250 250 250 243 160 222 200 120 180 SDG/1 SDG/1 Kg 170 80 167 90 90 40 84 73 68 65 77 65 69 69 67 69 74 0 Blue Nile Central East Kassala North North Red Sea South South West West White National Darfur Darfur Darfur Kordofan Darfur Kordofan Darfur Kordofan Nile Average Mar-20 Feb-21 In March, the wheat flour retail prices showed an increase in 7 out of 12 states by 1.0 to 67 percent compared to the previous month. It remained unchanged in North Darfur and South Darfur and decreased in Central Darfur, Kassala and White Nile by 33, 10 and 1 percent, respectively. It was sharply increased in East Darfur (67.0 percent), Red Sea (47.0 percent), West Kordofan (33.0 percent), North Kordofan (23.0 percent), while it slightly increased in South Kordofan (9.0 percent), Blue Nile (7.0 percent) and West Darfur (1.0 percent). During March 2021, the prices of wheat flour is higher by 138 to 334 percent in all states compared to the March 2020. 3 March 2021 Sorghum National The average retail price of sorghum reached Sorghum Prices - National Average 98.21 Sudanese pound per Kg in March 2021, 110.0 which is an increase by 0.9 percent compared 100.0 to February 2021. 90.0 80.0 This slight increase is due to increase in the 70.0 supply of sorghum due to the onset of the new 60.0 production season and stablization in the 50.0 exchange rate. Sorghum prices are expected to SDG/KG 40.0 remained stable or slightly increase during the 30.0 20.0 coming few months. The average retail price of 10.0 sorghum is higher by 181 percent compared 0.0 March 2020, while it was 640 percent higher Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec than the average of the past five years of March. 5 Year Average (2016 - 2020) 2020 2021 By States Sorghum Prices, by State 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 136.7 129.2 90.0 129.2 120.8 80.0 113.2 110.8 106.3 98.8 98.8 98.2 97.3 103.3 70.0 101.3 100.0 100.0 91.7 91.7 60.0 91.7 84.2 83.5 83.3 82.5 78.0 50.0 76.9 68.3 SDG SDG / KG 40.0 66.2 30.0 40 40 39 38 20.0 37 35 35 35 32 32 32 32 10.0 29 0.0 Red Sea Kassala White North South North West South East Blue Nile West Central National Nile Kordofan Kordofan Darfur Darfur Darfur Darfur Kordofan Darfur Average March 2020 February 2020 March 2021 In March 2021, sorghum retail prices were slightly increased in 7 out of 12 states compared to the previous month. It was significantly increased in South Darfur (9.1 percent), West Kordofan (7.6 percent), East Darfur (6.9 percent) and White Nile (5.8 percent). It slightly increased in North Kordofan (2.1 percent), North Darfur (1.3 percent) and West Kordofan (1.0 percent), while it remained unchanged in Blue Nile. It significantly decreased in Central Darfur (14.0 percent) and West Darfur (12.4 percent), while it slightly decreased in Red Sea (4.4 percent) and Kassala (0.8 percent). The retail prices of sorghum increased by 113 to 332 percent in all states compared to the same period of the previous year (see the chart in Annex 1 on page 8). It has increased in all states by 445 to 1,052 percent compared to the average price for the past five years of March. 4 March 2021 Goat National The average retail price of goat was 8,574 Goat Prices - National Average Sudanese pound per head, which is an increase 9000 8500 of 13.05 percent over the previous month. The 8000 7500 high prices of goat is mainly attributed to the 7000 6500 high production cost and high demand of 6000 5500 livestock for export markets. The average retail 5000 4500 price of goat increased by 103.35 percent 4000 SDG/Head 3500 compared to the same month of the previous 3000 2500 year and it was higher by 403 percent compared 2000 1500 to the five years average of March.