Isle of Wight Local Plan: Air Quality Impact Assessment Addendum 1: Updates based on changes in planned development ___________________________________________________ Report for Isle of Wight Council ED 15599104 | Issue Number 1 | Date 19/08/2021 Ricardo Energy & Environment Isle of Wight Local Plan: Air Quality Impact Assessment | i Customer: Contact: Isle of Wight Council Tom Buckland Ricardo Energy & Environment Gemini Building, Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR, United Kingdom e: [email protected] Confidentiality, copyright & reproduction: Ricardo-AEA Ltd is certificated to ISO9001 and This report is submitted by Ricardo Energy & ISO14001 Environment under contract to the Isle of Wight Council. Authors: It may not be used for any other purposes, Rohan Patel and Jessica Virdo reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to any organisation or person without the specific Approved By: permission in writing of the Commercial Manager, Tom Buckland Ricardo Energy & Environment. Date: 19 August 2021 Ricardo Energy & Environment reference: Ref: ED15599104- Issue Number 1 Cover photograph: Bembridge Down SSSI (Wikimedia Commons) Ricardo in Confidence Ref: Ricardo/ED15599104/Issue Number 1 Ricardo Energy & Environment Isle of Wight Local Plan: Air Quality Impact Assessment | ii Executive summary The Isle of Wight (IoW) is the largest island in England. It is located between approximately 1 mile and 5 miles off the south coast of the English mainland. The Isle of Wight is separated from the coast of Hampshire by the Solent. The population of the Isle of Wight is approximately 140,000. This report considers air quality impacts from increased vehicle emissions associated with proposed development on the Isle of Wight. It forms part of the evidence base supporting the revised Island Planning Strategy. Air quality impacts are a potential concern in relation to natural habitats. The Isle of Wight includes nationally and internationally designated habitat sites and species of international importance. Many roads on the Island pass through or nearby designated sites. These sites may be adversely affected by increases in air concentrations of pollutants, particularly oxides of nitrogen and ammonia, and the deposition of these pollutants within the habitats. This report contains the results of an assessment of air quality impacts of the updated Island Planning Strategy. This study provided an update to the model predicted air quality impacts at all locations within the island and extending into adjoining designated habitat sites, at a resolution of 3m x 3m. This method of spatially detailed compliance modelling was used to assess air quality impacts in terms of protected nature conservation sites. Changes in traffic flows within the study area were identified from data provided by IoW Council’s traffic consultant. This was further updated through the use of scaling factors for each of the traffic scenarios. In total, two traffic scenarios were updated: 2036 Baseline Scenario and 2036 Do Minimum (2036 DM) Scenario. The 2036 Baseline Scenario includes committed development allocations and transport interventions up to 2036 but does not include development associated with the revised Island Planning Strategy. The updated 2036 baseline Scenario includes the updated changes in emissions as a result of National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) fleet split changes. The 2036 DM Scenario includes the development and transport interventions included in the 2036 Baseline Scenario, as well as development associated with the revised Island Planning Strategy. The 2036 DM Scenario was updated with the revised development forecast changes, and the updated changes in emissions as a result of NAEI fleet split changes. General improvements in vehicle emissions are forecast to occur over the period up to 2036, resulting in ongoing improvements in air quality. Impacts at nature conservation sites Air quality impacts on designated sites were assessed on the basis of predicted annual average airborne concentrations of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), as well as annual deposition of nutrient nitrogen and acid. The screening assessment of impacts on designated sites was carried out in a stepwise process, designed to comply with Natural England’s emerging requirements1 and good practice for evaluation of the impacts of air pollution on nature conservation sites. The requirements from Natural England were developed primarily for the assessment of designated sites with European (or equivalent international) designation, namely Ramsar sites, Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and Special Protection Areas (SPAs). We have also included nationally designated Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs) that do not form components of European sites in this study. This assessment indicates that the risk of air quality impacts due to the Island Planning Strategy can be ruled out at a number of European sites: • Briddlesford Copses SAC 1 Natural England, “Natural England’s approach to advising competent authorities on the assessment of road traffic emissions under the Habitats Regulations (NEA001)”, 12 July 2018. Available from http://publications.naturalengland.org.uk/publication/4720542048845824, accessed 12/02/2019. Ricardo in Confidence Ref: Ricardo/ED15599104/Issue Number 1 Ricardo Energy & Environment Isle of Wight Local Plan: Air Quality Impact Assessment | iii • Isle of Wight Downs SAC • Solent & Dorset Coast (SPA) • Solent & Isle of Wight Lagoons SAC • Solent & Southampton Water Ramsar & SPA • Solent Maritime (SAC) • South Wight Maritime SAC The risk of air quality impacts can also be ruled out at all SSSIs on the island: • Arreton Down SSSI • Bembridge Down SSSI • Bonchurch Landslips SSSI • Bouldnor and Hamstead Cliffs SSSI • Brading Marshes to St. Helen's Ledges SSSI • Briddlesford Copses SSSI • Colwell Bay SSSI • Compton Chine to Steephill Cove SSSI • Compton Down SSSI • Freshwater Marshes SSSI • Headon Warren and West High Down SSSI • King's Quay Shore SSSI • Medina Estuary SSSI • Mottistone Down SSSI • Newtown Harbour SSSI • Thorness Bay SSSI • Ventnor Downs SSSI • Whitecliff Bay and Bembridge Ledges SSSI • Alverstone Marshes SSSI • America Wood SSSI • Bembridge School and Cliffs SSSI • Calbourne Down SSSI • Cranmore SSSI • Cridmore Bog SSSI • Eaglehead and Bloodstone Copses SSSI • Garston's Down SSSI • Greatwood and Cliff Copses SSSI • Lacey’s Farm Quarry SSSI • Lake Allotments SSSI • Locks Farm Meadow SSSI • Northpark Copse SSSI • Parkhurst Forest SSSI • Priory Woods SSSI • Prospect Quarry SSSI • Rew Down SSSI • Rowridge Valley SSSI • Ryde Sands and Wootton Creek SSSI • Shide Quarry SSSI Ricardo in Confidence Ref: Ricardo/ED15599104/Issue Number 1 Ricardo Energy & Environment Isle of Wight Local Plan: Air Quality Impact Assessment | iv • St Lawrence Bank SSSI • The Wilderness SSSI • Yar Estuary SSSI The Island Planning Strategy has the potential to result in air quality impacts for one of the ecological areas included in this study. For this ecological area, likely significant effects from air quality impacts cannot be ruled out based on the existing evidence base: • Briddlesford Copses SAC functionally linked land Functionally linked land associated with Briddlesford Copses SAC is the ecological area at which the updated air quality impacts from the Island Planning Strategy exceeded the screening thresholds. The HRA Stage 1 screening results indicate that likely significant effects from nitrogen deposition cannot be ruled out for the qualifying feature Bechstein’s bat (Myotis bechsteini) and its supporting broadleaved, mixed and yew woodland habitat. The areas predicted to exceed the screening thresholds correspond to: thin bands of mixed deciduous woodland on either side of Stroud Wood Road and extending up to 8 m into the functionally linked land, and a very thin band of mixed deciduous woodland north of Lushington Hill Road and extending up to 2 m across the southern boundary of the functionally linked land. This study concludes that further detailed transport modelling and air dispersion modelling is carried out. This should be accompanied by an ecological assessment of the exceedance areas to assess if they are used by the Bechstein`s bat. Ricardo in Confidence Ref: Ricardo/ED15599104/Issue Number 1 Ricardo Energy & Environment Isle of Wight Local Plan: Air Quality Impact Assessment | v Table of contents 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 7 2 Updates since previous report .................................................................................. 8 2.1 Change in development forecast....................................................................................... 8 2.2 Change in NAEI fleet projection ........................................................................................ 8 2.3 Further changes ................................................................................................................ 9 3 Method Statement .................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Study Overview ............................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Scaling factor methodology ............................................................................................. 11 3.3 Assessment of impacts on designated sites ................................................................... 19 4 Assessment