Great Founder Theory Samo Burja 2020 Manuscript www.SamoBurja.com/GFT © Samo Burja, 2020. All Rights Reserved. Great Founder Theory Samo Burja 2020 Manuscript Contents Preface ............................................................................................5 Introduction ....................................................................................8 On Building Theories of History ...................................................16 Social Technology .........................................................................21 How Social Engineering Drives Technology ..................................31 Honors Fuel Achievement .............................................................40 How Elon Musk is Making Engineers Cool Again .........................47 On the Loss and Preservation of Knowledge .................................50 Intellectual Dark Matter................................................................59 Live vs. Dead Players .....................................................................68 Borrowed vs. Owned Power ..........................................................72 The Succession Problem ................................................................77 How Roman Emperors Handled the Succession Problem ..............82 What Botswana Can Teach Us About Political Stability ................89 Functional Institutions Are the Exception .....................................97 How to Use Bureaucracies ...........................................................103 Competition for Power ...............................................................111 Empire Theory, Part I: Competitive Landscape ...........................118 Empire Theory, Part II: Power Dynamics ....................................126 Institutional Failure as Surprise ...................................................146 Why Civilizations Collapse .........................................................154 Reform is Driven by Rising Elites ................................................165 How Late Zhou China Reverse-Engineered a Civilization ...........174 4 Preface What drives social change throughout history and the present? What are the origins of institutional health or sclerosis? My answer is that a small number of functional institu- tions founded by exceptional individuals form the core of society. These institutions are imperfectly imitated by the rest of society, multiplying their effect. The original versions outperform their imitators, and they are responsible for the creation and renewal of soci- ety and all the good things that come with it—whether we think of technology, wealth, or the preservation of knowledge, ideas, and culture. Over time, functional institutions decay. As the landscape of founders and institutions changes, so does the landscape of society. This answer is the lens through which I analyze current and historical events, affairs, and figures. This intellectual project requires that we recast much of what we think we know about society and is therefore no small undertaking. This manuscript, titled Great Founder Theory, is an effort to consolidate and transmit the key analytical concepts we have developed so far. In it, we explain the models that are key to understanding how great founders shape society through the generations, covering such topics as strategy, power, knowledge, and social technology. The saying goes “all models are wrong, but some are useful.” When working on mod- els and theories to explain society, it is always important to continue updating them as time passes. Concepts are clarified. Errors are corrected. New examples of phenomena are discovered and, often, serve to make an abstract claim more legible to the reader. Some counter-arguments are rebutted and others are not—and they therefore ought to be either noted or integrated into the existing body of work. Sociology is not as exact as the physical sciences, but at its best, it follows the scientific method. 5 Before the Information Era, it may have been prohibitively costly to publish new ver- sions of one’s work on an ongoing basis. Today, thanks to the Internet, the marginal cost of updating one’s readers on one’s latest thoughts and research is comparatively zero, or at least close to it. In this spirit, I write regularly on both SamoBurja.com and for outlets such as Palladium Magazine, The National Interest, and Asia Times, on topics ranging from Botswana’s modern development to the intellectual debates of ancient China. This manuscript, which gives a broad overview of my approach to sociological analysis, is no less deserving of being kept up to date! The first version of this manuscript, published on SamoBurja.com in 2018, represented the culmination of nearly a decade of research into the institutional underpinnings of both our own society and of past societies around the world, which are now only accessi- ble to us through the records that they have left. After several additional years of research and theoretical work, this updated version is ready for public consumption. The new manuscript features numerous changes. Returning readers will now find key concepts significantly fleshed out. The introductory essay to the manuscript provides a new explanation of great founder theory as a whole. Building on feedback from several readers and friends, the essay Social Technology has been significantly reworked, pro- viding a clearer definition of social technology as a concept as well as adding numerous examples. The essay on the Loss and Preservation of Knowledge has also undergone ren- ovation, with new considerations on what makes a tradition of knowledge live. Contem- porary examples have been added to Live vs. Dead Players, in addition to a discussion on live players and traditions of knowledge. The Succession Problem has been expanded to emphasize the importance of succession for knowledge that cannot be liquidated. Functional Institutions Are the Exception now includes a critique of our ideology of market mechanisms. The essay on Competition for Power has grown to encompass a discussion on how and why power coordination occurs vis-à-vis competition. Honors Fuel Achievement has been reoriented towards a consideration of how to incentivize technological innovation. How Roman Emperors Handled the Succession Problem has been significantly enriched in order to provide a more detailed model of succession as it relates to institutional complexity, and formal versus informal power over time. Lastly, all essays throughout have received illustrative new historical examples. In addition to these core essays, I have also added five essays of mine that have previously appeared elsewhere, but which are best understood when placed within a great founder theory context. Four of these pieces were originally published in Palladium Magazine: first, “How Social Engineering Drives Technology,” which examines how social technol- 6 ogy, in the hands of live players, is upstream of all material technological progress; sec- ond, “What Botswana Can Teach Us About Political Stability,” which demonstrates an example of successful succession in our contemporary world; third, “Reform is Driven by Rising Elites,” which explains the mechanics of how institutional reform is actually advanced; fourth, “How Late Zhou China Reverse-Engineered a Civilization,” which provides a particular case of large-scale reform. Th e fi fth piece, originally published in Th e Sideview, is “Why Civilizations Collapse,” which draws on my entire body of theory to sketch out a macro view of civilizational fl ourishing and decline. Moreover, I have devoted a great deal of eff ort into synthesizing each core area with others: making sure the columns fi t together to support a unifi ed whole. Th e task of great founder theory is to show how a magnifi cently complex socio-historical structure can burst forth from a small, radical set of theoretical pillars. Th erefore, I hope the read- er will now be better able to follow me as I trace narrative threads from fundamental assumptions to illustrative particular cases, linking core theory to new observations on areas such as the nature of prestige and innovation, the infl uence of institutional decay on history, and more. Lastly, I have shown how this reinvigorated version of great found- er theory fi ts into our existing fi eld of social theory, both critiquing and building upon existing concepts such as creative destruction, market mechanisms, meritocracy, law, and more. Much work still remains to be done in our understanding of society—in fact, I would argue, the majority of such work has not been done. Th is manuscript is not a book—but a book is coming soon! Th e upcoming book will be a full treatment of the aforementioned topics, fl eshed out with historical examples and several new chapters on the topic of civilization as a whole, and written for a broader educated audience. In the meantime, I invite you to read and consider the more theo- retical treatment of these topics that I have published here. Preface 7 Introduction A theory of history Where are we, how did we get here, and where are we going? If we knew, could we change course? And what would it take to succeed? Many disciplines have sought to an- swer these proverbial big questions, with answers ranging from the philosophical to the biological and everything in between. But often overlooked is the value of history. The recorded history of human civilization over the last 10,000 years, with the stories and sagas of empires, religions, and