HENRY M. JACKSON SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY of WASHINGTON TASK FORCE The Donald C. Hellmann Task Force Program Preventing ISIL’S Rebirth Through a Greater Understanding of Radicalization: A Case Study of ISIL Foreign Fighters 2020 Preventing ISIL’s Rebirth Through A Greater Understanding of Radicalization: A Case Study of ISIL Foreign Fighters Evaluator Corinne Graff, Ph.D. Senior Advisor, Conflict Prevention and Fragility United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Faculty Advisor Denis Bašić, Ph.D. ~ Coordinator Orla Casey Editor Audrey Conrad Authors Orla Casey Audrey Conrad Devon Fleming Olympia Hunt Manisha Jha Fenyun Li Hannah Reilly Haley Rogers Aliye Volkan Jaya Wegner Our Task Force would like to express our gratitude towards Professor Denis Bašić, without whom this Task Force would not have been possible. Thank you for your guidance, expertise, and abundance of knowledge. We appreciate you always pushing us further towards a deeper understanding. TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………………….2 The Rise of ISIL and Foreign Fighters…………………………………………………………....3 Section I: Middle Eastern and North African ISIL Recruitment Saudi Arabia…………………………………………………………...………………………….7 Tunisia………………………………………………………………………………………...…13 Morocco………………………………………………………………………………………….15 Libya……………………………………………………………………………………………..17 Egypt……………………………………………………………………………………………..21 Jordan……………………………………………………………………………………………25 Lebanon………………………………………………………………………………………….30 Turkey……………………………………………………………………………………………34 Section II: South and Southeast Asian ISIL Recruitment Afghanistan and Pakistan………………………………………………………………………..39 The Maldives……………………….…………………………………………………………….45 Indonesia…………………………………………………………………………………………48 Section III: The Russian Federation, The Balkans, and Central Asian ISIL Recruitment The Russian Federation………………………………………………………………………….52 The Balkans……………………………………………………………………………………...58 Central Asian Republics…………………………………………………………………………63 Section IV: European ISIL Recruitment Scandinavia and the Netherlands………………………………………………………………..69 United Kingdom………………………………………………………………………………….78 Ireland……………………………………………………………………...…………………….82 France……………………………………………………………………………………...…….85 Belgium…………………………………………………………………………………………..90 Germany………………………………………………………………………………………….92 Austria………………………………………………………………………………………...….96 Section V: Americas and Oceania ISIL Recruitment United States, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada…………………………………………..100 Trinidad and Tobago………………………………………………………………………...…111 Section VI: Future of Terrorist Recruitment and ISIL Prisoner Repatriation Conclusion and Policy Recommendations……………………………………………….…….114 Appendix 1……………………………………………………………………………………...117 Bibliography…………………………………………………………………………………...118 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Terrorism kills on average 20,000 people every year. Although this is a small percentage of the world’s population, terrorism is a global security issue for every nation. Our report focuses on the rise, recruitment, and fall of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Declaring a Caliphate in 2014, ISIL was responsible for orchestrating attacks across the globe, and influencing hundreds of more lone wolf attacks. While ISIL is responsible for attacking other countries, the majority of deaths have been committed against fellow Muslims in the Levant. Even though the Islamic State has been defeated in the Levant, 41,490 foreign fighters are waiting to be repatriated to their original home country. Our report seeks to provide possible policy recommendations for dealing with imprisoned ISIL foreign fighters. They present a security threat to the US and the global community since recruits are being help in unsecure prisons in Syria and Iraq. For that reason, our policy recommendations are directed towards the United States government. To understand the causes of radicalization among international ISIL recruits, we looked at the conditions in the countries from which recruits came in the largest numbers, either in total or per capita of Sunni Muslims of fighting age 15-54 years old. Our findings demonstrate radicalization is not a monocausal process, but rather a myriad of factors contribute to radicalization. One major contributor to radicalization around the world is Wahhabism. Saudi Arabian funded cultural centers, schools, and mosques distribute radical Wahhabi materials and textbooks that encourage violence against other Islamic sects and non- Muslims. Working on curbing Saudi influence in other countries is key to stopping radicalization. Prisons contribute to a large percentage of radicalization around the world due to lack of funding, corruption, overcrowding, and arbitrary arrests of petty criminals. Our findings also show that economic factors contribute to terrorism. Lack of economic opportunities within one’s native country, high inequality, and high poverty rates increase likelihood of radicalization. We also found that lack of education factored into radicalization. Countries unable to provide education to high numbers of young people, face greater rates of radicalization as terrorist groups offer social provisions such as education. Socioeconomic factors such as isolation of minority groups plays into radicalization as well as integration of immigrant groups. Additionally, political instability allows for terrorism to thrive. Our policy recommendations aim to combat these contributing aspects in order to assist in preventing terrorism. 2 THE RISE OF ISIL AND FOREIGN FIGHTERS Orla Casey In March 2019, Syrian Democratic Forces in coalition with Iraqi, Syrian, and international forces defeated the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in the Battle of Baghuz.1 While ISIL has been defeated in the Levant, active affiliate branches in Libya, Yemen, the Philippines, and several other countries still pose security threats. Moreover, large swaths of soldiers are in jails awaiting trial, and thousands of women and children live in displaced person camps waiting to be repatriated. Although the fighting has ended, ISIL still poses a direct security problem for the global community, specifically the United States. Additionally, understanding the rise of ISIL, and radicalization of people around the world can better help prevent re-radicalization and future terrorist attacks. The rise of ISIL is based on three world events: Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, U.S. Invasion of Iraq, and the Syrian Civil War. On December 24, 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan marking the beginning of a nine- year civil war. The Soviets invaded to ensure that the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan stayed in power. However, instead of establishing a stable nation state, the invasion led to a destabilization of Afghanistan as rebel groups began to compete for power. Originally, the Soviet invasion was perceived by some Muslims around the world as a secular foreign power meddling in the politics of an Islamic nation. As a result, thousands of Muslims from around the world traveled to Afghanistan to fight for the Mujahideen. Comprised of primarily Sunni Muslims, the Mujahideen was funded primarily by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Pakistan, and through private donations.2 Extensive foreign funding enabled the Mujahideen to train thousands of jihadi fighters. Several of these prominent fighters included Osama bin-Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Mohammed Omar, and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Although the Mujahideen eventually defeated the Soviet forces, internal fragmentation among the organization left the country in an unstable position. Later, Osama bin-Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri founded al-Qaeda to continue jihad resistance against foreign influence.3 Mohammed Omar eventually took control of Afghanistan after founding the Taliban.4 On the other hand, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi returned to his home country Jordan but would later travel to Iraq to fight U.S. occupation.5 The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan marked the start of a global jihad where fighters from various countries traveled to other countries to resist foreign influence. 1 Rukmini Callimachi, “ISIS Caliphate Crumbles as Last Village in Syria Falls,” New York Times, March 23, 2019. 2 James Phillips, “The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan,” The Heritage Foundation, January 9, 1980. 3 Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank, “Revisiting the Early Al Qaeda: An Updated Account of its Formative Years,” Taylor and Francis Online, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, April 1, 2011. 4 Zachary Laub, The Taliban in Afghanistan, Council on Foreign Relations, July 04, 2014. 5 George Michael, “The Legend and Legacy of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi,” Taylor and Francis Online, Defense Studies Journal, September 12, 2007. 3 Operation Iraqi Freedom and the subsequent U.S. occupation of Iraq led to the formation of ISIL. In the early 2000s, the Bush Administration claimed Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction and posed a direct threat to the United States. The U.S. also attempted to justify the invasion of Iraq by arguing that the U.S. would liberate Iraqi citizens from a cruel dictator and form a stable democracy in Iraq. Not only were weapons of mass destruction never found, but the U.S. failed to form a stable democracy.6 From 2003 until 2011, the U.S. occupied Iraq and implemented a policy of de-Baathification. Prior to U.S. interference, Iraq lived in a one-party system in which the Ba’ath Party controlled politics. Under Ba’ath rule, Iraq nationalized major industries including their oil industry. One of the first steps of de-Baathification enabled American