The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 Report for the Coalfields Regeneration Trust March 2020 1 The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 Index/ 1: Introduction 1 2: Demographic Trends 6 3: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 9 4: Education, Skills and Training 15 5: Local Economy 19 6: Unemployment and Income 23 7: Health and Wellbeing 31 8. Summary of Findings 42 2 The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 1: Introduction This report provides an updated socio-economic and deprivation assessment for Scotland’s former coalmining communities. It is based on a review and analysis of open public data. Background Social Value Lab were commissioned by the Coalfields Regeneration Trust in Scotland to review available evidence and produce an assessment of: . Current socio-economic conditions in former coalmining communities . How conditions in the coalfield areas compare with the wider context . Geographical patterns and differences between the coalfields . Changes and trends over time . Current issues, challenges and any potential opportunities To do this we have undertaken the following tasks: 1. Review of literature and previous research 2. Matching the coalfields to new data geographies 3. Identification and analysis of data sources 4. Consulting stakeholders and incorporating revisions 5. Production of final written report and data tables The project has developed a current evidence base able to inform strategy development and support ongoing work in support of former coalmining communities. This report provides a more detailed picture of conditions and trends in the Scottish coalfield areas and updates a previous analysis by SVL from 2013. The Coalfields Regeneration Trust The Coalfields Regeneration Trust1 was established to support and improve quality of life for people living in former coalmining communities. Their mission is to create opportunities for social and economic growth, deliver a positive lasting impact and ensure former mining communities are not disadvantaged by their past legacy. In Scotland, the CRT is predominately funded by the Scottish Government, but the Trust accesses a range of funding sources in order to deliver targeted programmes that address challenges caused by the mines’ closure. 1 https://www.coalfields-regen.org.uk/ 1 The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 FIGURE 1.1 UK COALFIELD AREAS Source: Coalfields Regeneration Trust Context An initial review of previous research and relevant literature makes clear that Scotland’s former coalmining communities continue to face significant challenges long after the last coal mines closed down. At the same time there are key differences in profile, needs, trajectory and opportunities driven by economic change and geography. 2 The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 The previous analysis conducted by SVL was based primarily on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation from 2012. This found that: . The overall population was rising in the Scottish coalfield areas. Deprivation was still a major concern, with coalfields in a worse comparative position between 2006 and 2012. There was extensive and concentrated deprivation in Fife, with some coalfield areas among the most disadvantaged communities in Scotland. The picture for income, education and geographic access was getting worse, with unemployment rising in the period to 2012. The State of the UK Coalfields report produced by Sheffield Hallam University in 20192 found that: . British coalfields lag behind national averages and are particularly affected by economic weakness, socio-economic disadvantage and ill health. Jobs growth has been slow, with lower skilled sectors and lower pay dominating. Coalfields have an older population, with significant levels of either out-migration or out- commuting for work. Some smaller coalfield areas have ‘caught up’ with the national picture, for example in the English Midlands. Welfare reform was resulting in further income loss in former coalmining communities. Defining the coalfields A critical part of this work has been updating the way that the coalfields are defined and bringing this into line with current geographical frameworks. CRT’s intervention areas were originally defined using the geographies in place before 1999, with 89 electoral wards selected as priority areas. Electoral wards are now much larger (multi-member) areas, which are not fine-grained enough to match to the coalfield areas. In addition, most small area (below Local Authority) data is currently provided for the Data Zones and Intermediate Zones that have been in place since the 2011 Census. The previous SVL analysis was based on the Data Zones used for the 2001 Census, which had been mapped against the coalfield intervention areas by CRT staff and researchers at SHU3. We therefore went back to the original ward-level data and matched these visually to current Data Zones and Intermediate Zones using GIS mapping software. This has resulted in the selection of: 2 https://www4.shu.ac.uk/research/cresr/sites/shu.ac.uk/files/state-of-the-coalfields-2019.pdf 3 Christina Beatty at SHU provided their list of Scottish Data Zones and explained the approach taken to defining geographies by previous studies. 3 The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 . 610 Data Zones (or enumeration districts) with an average population of around 750 people . 124 intermediate zones (or statistical wards) with an average population of around 4,000 people The results of this selection process are mapped in Figure 1.2 below: FIGURE 1.2 COALFIELD INTERVENTION AREAS - 2011 DATAZONES Source: Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right (2019) 4 The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 Data sources We have identified all data that is available across the key themes of: . Population . Deprivation and disadvantage . Education, skills and training . Economy and business base . Unemployment and income . Health and wellbeing (including local environment and neighbourhood amenity) In order to be useful for this report, the information must be available: at small area level (below Local Authority) as coalfields do not correspond to council areas; provided for the whole of Scotland; and ideally for different time periods. The sources of information are referenced throughout, but the key ones are: . https://statistics.gov.scot/home . https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/SIMD . https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/ . https://scotland.shinyapps.io/ScotPHO_profiles_tool/ . https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/ All maps in this document contain Ordnance Survey and other public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.04. 4 © Crown Copyright and database right (2019) 5 The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 2: Demographic Trends This chapter looks at population trends for the coalfield areas. Population The following table shows how the population of coalfield areas has changed in recent years, broken down into three age ranges. Between 2001 and 2018 (the maximum time frame available for current Data Zones) the total population of coalfield areas had increased to nearly 468,000, an increase of 9% compared to 7% for Scotland. TABLE 2.1 POPULATION CHANGE Coalfields Scotland Indicator Population Population % Change % Change 2001 2018 Total population 429,339 467,873 +9% +7% Under 16s 87,534 87,857 0% -5% Working age (16-64) 275,154 293,698 +7% +6% Pensionable age (65 plus) 66,651 86,318 +30% +27% Source: National Records of Scotland5 The numbers of people aged 65 show the largest increase (30%) but perhaps the most significant difference relative to Scotland is the number of people aged 16 or under. The number of young people has remained relatively constant in the former coalmining communities, despite reducing by 5% across Scotland. Figure 2.1 shows that under 16s account for a larger share of the population in coalfield areas (19%) than they do for Scotland (17%). FIGURE 2.1 SHARE OF POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 2018 Scotland 17% 64% 19% Coalfields 19% 63% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Under 16s Working age (16-64) Pensionable age (65 plus) Source: National Records of Scotland6 5 https://statistics.gov.scot/resource?uri=http%3A%2F%2Fstatistics.gov.scot%2Fdata%2Fpopulation-estimates-current-geographic-boundaries 6 https://statistics.gov.scot/resource?uri=http%3A%2F%2Fstatistics.gov.scot%2Fdata%2Fpopulation-estimates-current-geographic-boundaries 6 The Scottish Coalfields in 2020 Housing Recent consultations highlighted a view that new housing developments in coalfield areas area are likely to have played a role in boosting their population. The table below presents information on the total numbers of dwellings and change between 2014 and 2017 showing that the dwelling stock has indeed increased in recent years. TABLE 2.2 NUMBER OF DWELLINGS Area Total Dwellings Total Dwellings % Change 2014 2017 Coalfields 212,860 218,345 +2.6% Scotland 2,546,383 2,603,174 +2.2% Source: National Records of Scotland7 Population Change Data on the components of population change is available at local authority level (so includes non-coalfield areas). The following table displays this information for the council areas with former coalmining communities. TABLE 2.3 POPULATION CHANGE 2017-2018 Council Area Natural change Net migration Other Population change Midlothian 181 1090 -21 1,250 East Lothian -201 1150 1 950 South Lanarkshire -466 1300 16 850 West Lothian 243 580 7 830 Fife -689 1240 -51 500 Stirling -131 510 -49 330 North Lanarkshire -363 550 33 220 Falkirk -201 430 -19 210 East Dunbartonshire -174 370 4 200 Clackmannanshire -45 -30 25 -50 East Ayrshire -327 230 -3 -100 South Ayrshire -626 500 -4 -130 Dumfries and Galloway -790 380 0 -410 Source: National Records of Scotland8 Recent years have seen most population growth in Midlothian, East Lothian, South Lanarkshire and West Lothian. Natural change (i.e. the difference between births and deaths) plays some part in this, though only West Lothian and Midlothian have more births than deaths between 2017 and 2018. The main driver of population change in these areas is migration, particularly for South Lanarkshire, Fife, East Lothian and Midlothian. Migration Migration data for the local authorities with former coalmining communities is broken down further below.