CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 Updates from: CSIS.ORG, “Homeland Defense” Comments to: [email protected] DEFENDING AMERICA IRAQ AND OTHER THREATS TO THE US INVOLVING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy OCTOBER 17, 2001 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 10/17/01 Page ii Table of Contents Washington, DC 20006.........................................................................................................................................i POTENTIAL STATE ACTORS .......................................................................................................................................1 A Department of State Assessment of State Threats.............................................................................................2 A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from Foreign States ................................................................7 The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis ...........................................................................................................................................10 FOREIGN TERRORISTS AND EXTREMISTS .................................................................................................................14 Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action...............................................................................................15 Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists...............................................................................................17 threatened US interests. .....................................................................................................................................20 Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants ................................................................................................30 DOMESTIC TERRORISTS AND EXTREMISTS...............................................................................................................31 TYPES OF ATTACK: DETERMINING FUTURE METHODS OF ATTACK AND THE NEEDED RESPONSE................................................................................................................................................................36 ILLUSTRATIVE ATTACK SCENARIOS ........................................................................................................................38 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION..........................................................................................................................41 CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK..........................................................................................................45 The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons....................................................................................45 The Probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks.........................................................................47 Methods of Delivery ...........................................................................................................................................51 Detection and Interception.................................................................................................................................52 Acquiring Chemical Weapons............................................................................................................................53 The Impact of Technological Change ................................................................................................................56 The Aum Shinrikyo Case Study ..........................................................................................................................57 Political and Psychological Effects....................................................................................................................59 The Problem of Response...................................................................................................................................59 BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK.......................................................................................................74 Case Studies: Iraq and Russia ...........................................................................................................................81 State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date ..........................................................................84 The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident ........................................................................................................................87 Cases in the US ..................................................................................................................................................88 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 10/17/01 Page iii The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons.......................................................................88 Means of Delivery ..............................................................................................................................................96 Manufacturing Biological Weapons...................................................................................................................98 Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture..............................................................................102 The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture........................................105 New Types of Biological Weapons...................................................................................................................106 Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature.......................................................................106 Agricultural and Ecological Attacks................................................................................................................110 The Problem of Response.................................................................................................................................114 RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK ................................................................................................141 The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons .................................................................................142 The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons....................................................................143 NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK .........................................................................................................146 Lethality and Effectiveness...............................................................................................................................147 Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon .........................................................................................................................................................................150 The Problem of Delivery ..................................................................................................................................155 Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks......................................................................................156 THREAT ASSESSMENT AND PRIORITIZATION ..........................................................................................173 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 10/17/01 Page iv List of Charts, Tables, and Figures Table 3.1......................................................................................................................................................................13 Global Challenges: Who Has Weapons of Mass Destruction?....................................................................................13 Table 4.1......................................................................................................................................................................44 The Comparative Effects of Biological, Chemical, and Nuclear Weapons Delivered ................................................44 Against a Typical Urban Target ..................................................................................................................................44 Table 4.3......................................................................................................................................................................66 US Department of Defense Estimate of Potential National Threats Intentions Involving Chemical Weapons...........66 Table 4.4......................................................................................................................................................................69 Key Chemical Weapons –Part One .............................................................................................................................69 Table 4.4......................................................................................................................................................................70