Carrying capacity methodology for tourism Targeted Analysis Case study annex Case study annex This targeted analysis activity is conducted within the framework of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The ESPON EGTC is the Single Beneficiary of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme. The Single Operation within the programme is implemented by the ESPON EGTC and co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund, the EU Member States and the Partner States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. This delivery does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the members of the ESPON 2020 Monitoring Committee. Authors Bernd Schuh, Martyna Derszniak-Noirjean, Roland Gaugitsch, ÖIR GmbH (Austria) Sabine Sedlacek, Christian Weismayer, Bozana Zekan, Ulrich Gunter, Daniel Dan, Lyndon Nixon Modul University Vienna GmbH (Austria) Tanja Mihalič, Kir Kuščer, University of Ljubljana, School of Economics and Business (Slovenia) Miša Novak, Miša Novak s.p. ALOHAS (Slovenia) Case study authors Bled: Miša Novak, Miša Novak s.p. ALOHAS (Slovenia) Brežice: Kir Kuščer, University of Ljubljana, School of Economics and Business (Slovenia) Divača: Tanja Mihalic, University of Ljubljana, School of Economics and Business (Slovenia) Gorizia – Nova Gorica: Bozana Zekan, Christian Weismayer, Modul University Vienna GmbH (Austria) Advisory Group ESPON EGTC: Sandra Di Biaggio (Senior Project Expert – Policy Analysis and Project Develop- ment), György Alföldy (Financial Expert) Information on ESPON and its projects can be found on www.espon.eu. The web site provides the possibility to download and examine the most recent documents produced by finalised and ongoing ESPON projects. This delivery exists only in an electronic version. © ESPON, 2020 Printing, reproduction or quotation is authorised provided the source is acknowledged and a copy is forwarded to the ESPON EGTC in Luxembourg. Contact: [email protected] Case study annex Carrying capacity methodology for tourism Version 11/11/2020 Disclaimer: This document is a final report. The information contained herein is subject to change and does not commit the ESPON EGTC and the countries participating in the ESPON 2020 Co- operation Programme. The final version of the report will be published as soon as approved. Table of contents I Case study Bled ................................................................................................................ 1 I.1 Step 1 ........................................................................................................................ 1 I.1.1 Overall context .............................................................................................. 1 I.1.2 Needs assessment ........................................................................................ 9 I.1.3 Policy and strategic orientation ................................................................... 12 I.1.4 Interviews .................................................................................................... 15 I.2 Step 2 ...................................................................................................................... 15 I.2.1 Development of a systemic picture ............................................................. 15 I.2.2 Identification of context indicators ............................................................... 17 I.2.3 Identification of tourism indicators and data ................................................ 18 I.2.4 Systemic Picture Workshop ........................................................................ 19 I.3 Step 3 ...................................................................................................................... 25 I.3.1 Data collection ............................................................................................. 25 I.3.2 Tourist flow estimation ................................................................................. 28 I.3.3 Tourist flow prediction ................................................................................. 32 I.4 Step 4 ...................................................................................................................... 34 I.4.1 Combining tourism and territorial context indicators into tourism impact (carrying capacity) ........................................................................... 34 I.4.2 Interpreting tourism impact with benchmarking........................................... 39 I.5 Step 5 ...................................................................................................................... 45 I.5.1 Carrying Capacity Workshop ....................................................................... 45 I.6 Outcomes of the Carrying Capacity Workshop ....................................................... 45 I.6.1 Formulation of policy recommendations ..................................................... 50 II Case study Brežice ......................................................................................................... 52 II.1 Step 1 ...................................................................................................................... 52 II.1.1 Overall context ............................................................................................ 52 II.1.2 Needs assessment ...................................................................................... 56 II.1.3 Policy and strategic orientation ................................................................... 58 II.1.4 Interviews .................................................................................................... 61 II.2 Step 2 ...................................................................................................................... 62 II.2.1 Development of a systemic picture ............................................................. 62 II.2.2 Identification of context indicators ............................................................... 63 II.2.3 Identification of tourism indicators and data ................................................ 64 II.2.4 Systemic Picture Workshop ........................................................................ 65 II.3 Step 3 ...................................................................................................................... 69 II.3.1 Data collection ............................................................................................. 69 II.3.2 Tourist flow estimation ................................................................................. 72 II.3.3 Tourist flow prediction ................................................................................. 76 II.4 Step 4 ...................................................................................................................... 78 II.4.1 Combining tourism and territorial context indicators into tourism impact .......................................................................................................... 78 II.4.2 Interpreting tourism impact with benchmarking........................................... 81 II.5 Step 5 ...................................................................................................................... 85 II.5.1 Carrying Capacity Workshop ....................................................................... 85 II.6 Outcomes of the Carrying Capacity Workshop ....................................................... 85 II.6.1 Formulation of policy recommendations ..................................................... 89 III Case study Divača .......................................................................................................... 91 III.1 Step 1 ...................................................................................................................... 91 III.1.1 Overall context ............................................................................................ 91 III.1.2 Needs assessment ...................................................................................... 95 III.1.3 Policy and strategic orientation ................................................................... 98 III.1.4 Interviews .................................................................................................. 102 ESPON | Carrying capacity methodology for tourism | Final Report/Case study annex I III.2 Step 2 .................................................................................................................... 102 III.2.1 Development of a systemic picture ........................................................... 102 III.2.2 Identification of context indicators ............................................................. 104 III.2.3 Identification of tourism indicators and data .............................................. 104 III.2.4 Systemic Picture Workshop ...................................................................... 105 III.3 Step 3 .................................................................................................................... 112 III.3.1 Data collection ........................................................................................... 112 III.3.2 Tourist flow estimation ............................................................................... 115 III.3.3 Tourist flow prediction ............................................................................... 120 III.4 Step 4 ...................................................................................................................