Missing and Killed Persons in the Autonomous Region of Krajina in 1992 Basic Demographic Characteristics, Timing and Location of Incidents Ewa Tabeau and Jakub Bijak January 10, 2002 Summary of Results This report presents statistical data and analysis concerning persons who were killed or reported missing in 1992 in the Autonomous Region of Krajina (ARK). The report was prepared by the demographic unit of the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) for the case of the Prosecutor of the Tribunal vs. Radoslav Br|anin and Momir Tali}, Case Number IT-99-36- PT. The authors utilised three sources for data on those missing or killed: The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) List of Missing Persons, the Exhumations Database, and Proof of Death Database. The latter two databases were compiled by the OTP for use in this case from documents concerning exhumations and Bosnian courts' Declarations of Death. The identities of all those listed in these documents were verified by comparing the names and data concerning the individual to the 1991 census conducted by the government of Yugoslavia. As a further check, the names of those listed as missing or dead were compared to the voter lists for the 1997 and 1998 elections in Bosnia, to ensure that no individual was incorrectly listed as missing or dead who had actually voted in either of these elections. The following are the principal findings from the analysis of the data: - The three sources together include 5,168 names. - The individuals listed in the databases were compared to the names and data for individuals in the 1991 census. If the individual was identified in the 1991 census, the name was then compared to voter lists compiled by the Organization of Security and Co- operation in Europe (OSCE), Regional Office for Bosnia and Herzegovina, for the 1997 and 1998 elections. Any name that also appeared on one of these voter lists was then removed, since in such a case the individual had possibly 1 survived the conflict. - This process reduced the original list of names to a total from the three lists of 3,833 individuals who had been identified in the 1991 census, had been on a list of those exhumed with indications he or she was killed in 1992, declared by a court to have died in 1992, or reported missing in 1992 and whose name did not appear on the 1997 or 1998 voter lists. - We then compared the names on the three lists and removed any duplicates, that is, any name that appeared in more than one of the three databases of those exhumed, reported missing or declared dead. After removing duplicates, the combined list contained 3,071 names. 1 Inconsistent evidence may also indicate registration fraud. -1- - This number of 3,071 names clearly understates the total number of persons who were killed in 1992 since undoubtedly some individuals who were killed were not reported missing by family members, no one obtained a Certificate of Death for them and their body has not been exhumed and identified. In order to provide some insight into the actual number of victims who were killed in the ARK during this time period, the authors utilised a recognised statistical tool for making such estimates (i.e. the capture-recapture method). The three databases have been used to produce a stochastic estimate of the total number of victims in ARK by using the capture-recapture method, which is further explained in the annex to this report. This method results in an estimate that some 6,018 persons were killed or went missing in the ARK in 1992. - Most victims identified in the merged Exhumations and Proof of Death databases were killed in the summer of 1992 (from the end of May through the end of August). Many were killed during several short time periods, those being: May 24 th - 27 th , May 30 th - June 3 rd , July 9 th - 10 th , July 20 th , and July 23 rd - 27 th . - Based on the exhumations and proof-of-death data, the vast majority (97 %) of killed in ARK in 1992 are Muslims. To verify this result, an analogous examination has been performed using the ICRC List of Missing Persons. - Most persons reported to the ICRC as missing disappeared in the municipalities of Prijedor (almost 57.2 % of those missing in the whole ARK), Kotor Varo{, Biha}, and Sanski Most. - Most persons went missing in ARK either in summer 1992 (in the period from end of May till end of August) or in the very beginning of November. In the summer period there are some evident peaks, most important being the periods May 24 th - 27 th , May 30 th - June 3 rd , June 11 th -14 th , June 20 th , June 25 th - 26 th , July 10 th , and July 20 th , 23 th , and 25 th . This pattern shows much coincidence with the timing of killings. - Based on the ICRC list, the clear majority (90.6 %) of persons missing in ARK in 1992 are Muslims. This outcome confirms the results obtained from the exhumations and proof-of-death data. The data obtained by the ICRC as an impartial authority provide a better estimate on the share of Muslim victims in ARK, the figure equalling about 91%. - The correlation coefficient between the number of missing and number of killed persons in the period April-December 1992 amounts to 0.76 (the maximum level is 1.00), and is statistically significant. This result confirms that the killings and disappearances of people in ARK show very similar time patterns. -2- 1. Introduction This report utilises three sources of information about missing and killed persons in the Autonomous Region of Krajina – ARK (hereafter the missing and killed persons are called “ARK victims”). The major source for missing persons from ARK is the ICRC List of Missing Persons. Two more sources have recently become available to us, the Exhumations Database and the Proof of Death Database, both established recently at the Office of the Prosecutor for the purpose of obtaining a better insight into the crimes committed in ARK (Sébire, 2001) 2. The three sources are briefly summarised below in Section 2. More information about the recent OTP sources can be obtained from the report by Sébire (2001). In Section 3, the numbers of victims found from each source are presented, the overlap between the sources is analysed and the three sources are used together to produce a stochastic estimate of the total number of victims in ARK. We also show basic demographic features of the ARK victims, such as their sex, age, and ethnicity. Section 4 of this report is devoted to the incidents that took place in ARK in 1992, in which the victims described in Section 3 lost their lives. Here we discuss the particular time periods in which people went missing or were killed and the location of the largest incidents. The statistical information used in both parts comes from the same three sources. In Section 3 this information is shown for individuals, in Section 4 for incidents in which these individuals died. 2 Nicolas Sébire, 2001, “Exhumations and Proof of Death, Autonomous Region of Krajina”. OTP Report. -3- 2. Information Sources 2.1. The ICRC List of Missing Persons Since 1991, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has collected data on persons reported as missing from the Former Yugoslavia, including ARK, in order “… to help families establish the fate of their relatives who remain missing.” 3 The organisation collected data primarily from close family members and occasionally accepted reports from more distant relatives and from friends and neighbours. They registered persons known to be dead but whose bodies have not been found. ICRC published a separate list of persons known to be dead (generally previously registered as missing) 4. ICRC published several versions (i.e. up-dates) of their list of missing persons from Bosnia and Herzegovina. In June 1998, they issued the latest 4 th version of the Book of the Missing (about 19,000 names), and in October 2000 an addendum to the 4 th edition with additional 1,000 names collected between June 1998 and October 2000. For the analyses presented in this report, the 4 th version of the Book of Missing, released in June 1998, was used. Till the year 2000, the ICRC has received requests to trace a total of 20,508 persons who disappeared in the conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina 5. Out of this total, some 1,949 persons were identified dead following exhumations, 860 missing persons were declared dead but their mortal remains were not recovered, and some 292 were found alive. The families of 17,407 missing persons have still received no confirmation of the fate of their relatives. It is generally assumed, however, that most (if not all) of those people are dead. The ICRC itself also expressed this opinion 6. 2.2. The Exhumations Database This database (hereafter EXH) has been established at OTP by Nicolas Sébire (2001) on the basis of the extensive documentation received by ICTY from the parties involved in the exhumations in ARK. The documentation was prepared during the exhumations by either the Bosnian authorities or the forensic team and archaeologists from the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. The essential part of the documentation is a general exhumation report drawn up by the examining judge. The report consists of a general description of the exhumation site, the exhumation itself, the number of bodies exhumed and, in most cases, provides a description of the forensic results of the autopsies.