Analysing agricultural landscape change in a marginal European landscape Birgit Reger Division of Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning Justus-Liebig-University Giessen - Division of Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning - Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resource Management Analysing agricultural landscape change in a marginal European landscape Dissertation submitted to the Faculty 09 Agricultural Sciences, Nutritional Sciences and Environmental Management Justus-Liebig-University Giessen for the degree of Doctor agriculturae (Dr. agr.) presented by Dipl.-Ing. Birgit Reger Giessen, May 2008 Dean: Prof. Dr. Roland Herrmann Accepted on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. Dr. Annette Otte, examiner AR Dr. Gabriel Schachtel, co-examiner Further members of the examination board: Prof. Dr. Ernst-August Nuppenau (chair) Prof. Dr. Hans-Georg Frede Prof. Dr. Tamas Harrach Date of defence: August 12, 2008 List of publications The thesis ‘Analysing agricultural landscape change in a marginal European landscape’ is based on the following three papers: 1. Reger, B., Otte, A., Waldhardt, R., 2007. Identifying patterns of land-cover change and their physical attributes in a marginal European landscape. Landscape and Urban Planning 81, 104-113. 2. Reger, B., Mattern, T., Otte, A., Waldhardt, R., in press. Assessing the spatial distribution of grassland age in a marginal European landscape. Journal of Environmental Management. 3. Reger, B., Sheridan, P., Simmering, D., Otte, A., Waldhardt, R., submitted. Potential effects of direct transfer payments on farmland habitat diversity in a marginal European landscape. Environmental Management. Author’s contribution: In paper 1, I performed the data preparation and had the main responsibility for data analysis and writing. The co-authors contributed to the planning of the study and gave valuable comments. In paper 2, I developed the approach, prepared and analysed the data, and was responsible for the writing. The first co-author performed the aerial photograph interpretation. The second and third co-authors provided helpful ideas and criticism. In paper 3, I had the main responsibility for data analysis and writing while the first co-author performed the land-use modelling. The other co-authors contributed constructive suggestions and helpful comments. Paper 1 and 2 were reprinted in this multiple-paper thesis with permission from Elsevier Ltd. ii CONTENTS Contents List of publications.....................................................................................................................ii Contents.....................................................................................................................................iii List of figures ............................................................................................................................ vi List of tables.............................................................................................................................vii 1. General introduction............................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Marginal agricultural landscapes .............................................................................. 1 1.1.2 Landscape change research ....................................................................................... 3 1.2 Objectives......................................................................................................................... 5 2. Study area ............................................................................................................................. 7 3. Materials and methods....................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Data sets and data pre-processing .................................................................................. 10 3.2 Cluster analysis .............................................................................................................. 12 3.3 GIS-based data analysis ................................................................................................. 13 3.4 Statistical data analysis................................................................................................... 15 4. Identifying patterns of land-cover change and their physical attributes in a marginal European landscape........................................................................................... 17 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 17 4.2 Study area....................................................................................................................... 20 4.3 Materials and methods ................................................................................................... 22 4.3.1 Historical land cover at the district scale ................................................................ 22 4.3.2 Current land cover................................................................................................... 22 4.3.3 Physical landscape data........................................................................................... 22 4.3.4 Data analysis ........................................................................................................... 24 4.4 Results ............................................................................................................................ 25 4.4.1 Types of land-cover patterns and dynamics (TLPDs)............................................. 25 4.4.2 Characterisation of TLPDs by physical landscape attributes.................................. 28 iii CONTENTS 4.5 Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 29 4.5.1 Types of land-cover patterns and dynamics............................................................ 29 4.5.2 Database and methodology ..................................................................................... 31 4.5.3 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 32 5. Assessing the spatial distribution of grassland age in a marginal European landscape ............................................................................................................................. 33 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 34 5.2 Materials and methods ................................................................................................... 35 5.2.1 Study area................................................................................................................ 35 5.2.2 Methodological approach........................................................................................ 37 5.3 Results ............................................................................................................................ 42 5.3.1 Age structure in TLPDs and physical attributes of the investigated patches.......... 42 5.3.2 Extrapolation of grassland age at the district scale ................................................. 44 5.3.3 Validation of extrapolation results .......................................................................... 45 5.4 Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 46 5.4.1 Methodological approach........................................................................................ 46 5.4.2 Grassland age structure ........................................................................................... 49 5.5 Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 50 6. Potential effects of direct transfer payments on farmland habitat diversity in a marginal European landscape........................................................................................... 53 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 54 6.2 Study area....................................................................................................................... 55 6.3 Materials and methods ................................................................................................... 56 6.3.1 Land-use pattern in 1995......................................................................................... 56 6.3.2 Transfer payment schemes...................................................................................... 56 6.3.3 Spatial implementation of the transfer payment schemes....................................... 57 6.3.4 Farmland habitat patterns........................................................................................ 58 6.3.5 Habitat diversity indices.......................................................................................... 59 6.4 Results ............................................................................................................................ 61 6.4.1 Habitat pattern........................................................................................................