Embedded in Bayer’s argument about the power of international law THE BLUE PLANET enforcement networks is a powerful critique of the intelligence estab- INFORMAL INTERNATIONAL POLICE NETWORKS lishment and its approach to countering terrorism. Bayer identifi es the AND NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE mismatch of an intelligence strategy that is founded on a Cold War model which fails to distinguish security risks posed by states from threats THE BLUE PLANET MICHAEL BAYER posed by terrorists. Jacqueline Ross Professor of Law University of Illinois Institutionally, it is clear that the “war on terror” bolstered the military approach to counterterrorism at the expense of other and alternative methods, including those devised by law enforcement. As the careful and sensitive study of Michael Bayer shows, however, law enforcement institutions are not only useful but oftentimes indispensible in countering the terrorist threat of today. MICHAEL D. BAYER Mathieu Defl em Associate Professor Department of Sociology, University of South Carolina On the basis of his rich experience, Mike Bayer argues in an authoritative and persuasive manner that the control of transnational organised crime and terrorism can only be successful if informal information exchange is acknowledged as a necessary asset which can complement formal law enforcement bureaucracies. Monica Den Boer Academic Dean Police Academy of the Netherlands Visit the NDIC Press at www.ndic.edu NDIC PRESS PCN18507 GPO 008-000-01036-6 NATIONAL DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE COLLEGE Th e Blue Planet Informal International Police Networks and National Intelligence Michael D. Bayer NDIC Research Fellow NATIONAL DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE COLLEGE WASHINGTON, DC February 2010 The views expressed here are those of the participants and do not refl ect the offi cial policy or position of any branch of the U.S. Government. Th e National Defense Intelligence College supports and encourages research on intelligence issues that distills lessons and improves Intelligence Community capabilities for policy-level and operational consumers. Th e Blue Planet: Informal International Police Networks and National Intelligence, Michael D. Bayer Michael Bayer is a former chief of the Department of State’s (DOS) transnational criminal investigative offi ce. Bayer’s book addresses the ques- tion of how the United States can engage international partners more eff ec- tively to address worldwide manifestations of destabilizing violence, oft en indiscriminately labeled “terrorism.” Bayer researched and wrote this book while participating in the Research Fellows Program under the Center for Strategic Intelligence Research (CSIR) at the National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC), Washington, DC. He received much support and assistance from two CSIR editors, Dr. William Spracher and Dr. Russell Swenson. 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Such academic freedom empowers them to off er new and some- times controversial perspectives in the interest of furthering debate on key issues. Th is volume is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sections 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copyrighted. ii How to order this book. Everyone may download a free electronic copy from our website at www.ndic.edu. U.S. government employees may request a complimentary copy by contacting us at: [email protected]. Th e gen- eral public may purchase a copy from the Government Printing Offi ce (GPO) at http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Editor, NDIC Press Center for Strategic Intelligence Research National Defense Intelligence College Defense Intelligence Agency Bolling Air Force Base Washington, DC 20340-5100 Library of Congress Control Number 2008944061 ISBN 978-1-932946-26-0 iii CONTENTS FOREWORD . vii Dr. Jacqueline Ross COMMENTARY . xi Dr. Monica den Boer COMMENTARY . .xiii Dr. Mathieu Defl em AUTHOR’S PREFACE . .xv DEDICATION . xix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . xxi CHAPTER 1: An Orbital View of the Blue Planet . .1 CHAPTER 2: Th e Co-Evolution of Transnational Crime, Terrorism, and Policing: A Brief Pre-History of the Blue Planet . 25 CHAPTER 3: Analyzing Impediments: A Core Sample of the Blue Planet. 43 CHAPTER 4: Comparing Apples, Oranges, and Lemons on the Blue Planet . 73 CHAPTER 5: Tales of the Blue Planet . 97 CHAPTER 6: Emergence of the Blue Planet . 135 BIBLIOGRAPHY . 153 INDEX . 173 ABOUT THE AUTHOR . 181 v FOREWORD Jacqueline Ross Professor of Law University of Illinois Mike Bayer’s book, Th e Blue Planet: Informal International Police Net- works and National Intelligence, makes a powerful argument for why the United States needs to make better use of its federal law enforcement agencies abroad as an integral part of our national counterterrorism strategy. Bayer’s book criti- cizes the primacy of the military/intelligence model in our foreign counterin- telligence strategy, arguing that the counterterrorism role reserved for the FBI makes insuffi cient use of the global networking capabilities of our many other American law enforcement agencies abroad. Bayer’s book makes an important contribution to the literature on international governmental networks, such as the work of Anne-Marie Slaughter and Kal Raustiala, describing the unique ability that informal networks of cooperating law enforcement agencies have to collect information about local conditions and local communities that may prove crucial in identifying terrorist threats and preventing terrorist attacks. Bayer argues that such networks have proven immensely successful in investigating organized crime, but that these capabilities have been underused against international terrorist networks. By virtue of their omnipresence around the globe, police are “natural anticipatory collectors” of vast amounts of infor- mation. Th ey are for that reason well-placed to detect suspicious activities— particularly given the overlap between terrorist cells and criminal networks. Law enforcement personnel have a unique ability to draw on trust and a com- mon culture with their counterparts in other countries, resulting in a regular informal interchange of useful information. Building on the work of Mathieu Defl em, Bayer recognizes the particular advantage that the police enjoy by vir- tue of their professional autonomy and relative independence from the cen- ters of political decision-making. Th e same forces that insulate them politically facilitate close, albeit informal, cooperation between law enforcement agencies from such vastly diff erent legal systems as those of the United States, Cuba, China, and Indonesia. Informal police cooperation thrives because it benefi ts not only powerful countries like the United States, which depend on informa- tion fl ows from a large variety of cooperating countries, but also relatively weak police entities seeking to increase their professionalism and autonomy from vii their own political centers. Given their special access to sources of intelligence not easily exploitable by the intelligence establishment, law enforcement agen- cies could play a much more important role than they currently do as full part- ners in a comprehensive American counterterrorism strategy. Embedded in Bayer’s argument about the power of international law enforcement networks is a powerful critique of the intelligence establishment and its approach to countering terrorism. Bayer identifi es the mismatch of an intelligence strategy that is founded on a Cold War model which fails to dis- tinguish security risks posed by states from threats posed by terrorists. Here Bayer builds on the work of Richard Posner and Melvin Goodman. One symp- tom of this mismatch is the over-reliance of the American intelligence com- munity on the classifi cation of intelligence, and its tendency to overvalue secret sources of information, in contrast with the relatively unfettered fl ow of infor- mation among cooperating law enforcement agencies. Bayer sees the tendency to over-classify intelligence as a form of turf protection by military and intel- ligence agencies, aimed to forestall feared encroachments by law enforcement agencies. Ironically, however, classifi ed intelligence may be particularly prone to exploitation and manipulation by those with personal agendas, and more prone to leaks—in part because intelligence agencies enjoy less autonomy from political pressure compared to the relatively less centralized American law enforcement agencies. Th us, Bayer argues that consignment to less sensitive categories of classifi cation may actually make intelligence safer, as evidenced by the success of the Witness Security Program, the security of which has never been breached, or the achievements of the Drug Enforcement Administration, based largely on informal, trust-based networks of international contacts.