14 November 6, 2016 News & Analysis Maghreb Signs of Bouteflika clearing path to fifth term Lamine Ghanmi mandate Bouteflika might seek when his fourth term ends in 2019. Bouteflika enjoys support among Tunis mostly older Algerians who credit him for ending the 1991-2002 civil lgeria’s ruling National war in which about 200,000 people Liberation Front (FLN) died. Secretary-General Amar Saadani asked members There is frustration of the party’s decision- among Algerians makingA central committee if any younger than 45 with of them wanted him to resign but ageing leaders who not one among the 500 committee are seen as eager to members gathered October 23rd maintain power and said they did. wealth. On the contrary, a rapturous standing ovation erupted, drown- ing out Saadani’s announcement Against the backdrop of political that he was no longer the FLN tumult in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, leader and his oblique message that Bouteflika also draws his popular he was forced to leave as part of a backing from freeing Algeria of the purge within Algeria’s complex rul- burden of foreign debt and rebuild- ing establishment. ing an army that is widely seen at Saadani, who took over as party home and abroad as a force of sta- head in August 2013, was seen as bility amid threats from extremist a staunch supporter and unofficial Islamist groups. spokesman of Algerian President There is, however, frustration Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Analysts said among Algerians younger than 45 Bouteflika sacked Saadani in a pow- — 80% of the country’s 40 million er struggle over who would replace people — with ageing leaders who the ageing president who is fighting are seen as eager to maintain power A video grab from footage broadcast by Algeria’s Canal Algérie on July 5th, 2016, shows Algerian to extend his stay in the El Moura- and wealth without giving space President Abdelaziz Bouteflika visiting El-Alia cemetery where independence fighters are buried in dia presidential palace. to younger generations to tackle an eastern Algiers suburb. (Canal Algérie) the new challenges of an open and Bouteflika is said to modern society. have sidelined Ill-health, including two strokes the internal affairs of the biggest Ahmed Gaid Salah,” said Tlemçani, “Our common link and common Saadani as a pre- since 2013, has forced Bouteflika, political party in the country but who also suggested that Gaid Salah ground is Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the emptive strike 78, to limit public appearances and his action was justified because if would be next to be sidelined. president whom we backed during against his led close friends to write him an he did not fire Saadani, Bouteflika “It was a question of Gaid Salah his presidential campaigns in 1999, opponents inside the open letter early this year seeking a could meet the same fate as Bour- to be named Defence minister and 2004, 2009, 2014 and in 2019, if God establishment. face-to-face meeting to ensure that guiba did at the hands of Ben Ali,” the position of chief of staff to be extends his life,” said the new FLN he was not the victim of a palace said Saad Okba, a political writer in given to another whose name is al- chief Djamel Ould Abbes, who at 82 coup. But during October, Boutef- the main daily El Khabar. ready known but the move was put is the oldest figure in the party. “The departure of Saadani is not lika was seen in public, including Former general Zine el-Abidine off for now,” added Tlemçani, citing Two leaders of political groups a one-off action. It heralds a long at an opera in Algiers, which was Ben Ali replaced Tunisian president sources inside the government. close to the presidency also voiced list of people leaving the military widely covered by state media. Habib Bourguiba in a medical coup Political watchers in Algeria say support for Bouteflika seeking a and political fields,” said security Some observers argued that after the ailing leader was declared there is a pattern repeated before new term, leading Algerians to joke analyst Salima Tlemçani, who has Bouteflika moved to sideline Saada- by doctors to be “mentally incapa- Bouteflika renewed his mandates about “whether 2019 comes before close access to senior military and ni as a pre-emptive strike against ble” in 1987. Ben Ali was Bourgui- in 2004, 2009 and 2014 with po- 2017”, a reference to legislative and security officials. “This purge reaf- his opponents inside the establish- ba’s prime minister at the time. litical allies voicing support for his local elections planned for next firms the power of El Mouradia.” ment who might plot to push him “The error of Saadani was that candidacy and more backing from April. “The option of the fifth mandate aside. he embraced a suicidal logic. He the grass roots following the quash- is becoming clearer,” Tlemçani said, “One can understand what aligned himself with the most pow- ing of any ambitions from aspirants Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly a reference to the new five-year Bouteflika did was interference in erful figure, army Chief of Staff within the ruling establishment. correspondent in Tunis. Draft budget highlights Tunisia’s social and fiscal problems Lamine Ghanmi its worst crisis since 1986, with bal- over all its levels,” he said. December when the parliament, 37% to pay back debt. The remain- looning domestic and foreign debt, Saidane’s comments came at a dominated by Ennahda and Nidaa ing 18% is for investment, where high inflation and unemployment conference on the draft budget or- Tounes, votes on the budget pro- its flexibility is limited,” Saidane Tunis rates and a weakening currency. ganised by the main ruling Nidaa posals. said. If the government were to sur- Tounes party. Chahed is a top offi- The IMF approved a four-year, Mohamed Salah Ayari, a tax ex- n attempting to overcome render to the demand of the Tuni- cial of the party founded by Presi- $2.9 billion loan to Tunisia in June, pert, said the “government is being the country’s socio-economic sian General Labour Union (UGTT) dent Beji Caid Essebsi. saying it supported the country’s squeezed between the IMF and so- woes and undertake crucial to raise wages as agreed to by its economic agenda aimed at pro- cial organisations over the budget reforms, the Tunisian gov- predecessor, it risks losing cred- The draft budget moting more inclusive growth and for 2017″. ernment faces opposing pres- ibility with the International Mon- forecasts a growth job creation while protecting the “One percent of business firms Isures from powerful trade unions etary Fund (IMF), with which Tu- most vulnerable households. pay 80% of total corporate taxes to rate of 2.5% of gross and international financial institu- nisia signed a deal that includes a domestic product Chahed and financial experts the government,” he said, attribut- tions. provision to freeze salaries. (GDP) after an said if Tunisia loses the support of ing this to widespread tax evasion The main employer group, the “The government faces two op- expected growth of IMF, it risks losing opportunities often due to lack of manpower to Tunisian Union of Industry, Trade posing commitments: A May 2016 to borrow at relatively low interest fight the problem with only 1,600 and Handicrafts (UTICA), objects deal with the IMF and the accords 1% this year. rates. government tax controllers moni- to the country’s draft budget as do of salary increases worth around 5 “What will be left is borrowing toring 700,000 taxpayers. many lawyers and business inter- billion dinars ($2.23 billion) signed The Islamist Ennahda party, an- from private investors at 14%,” “Workers are disappointed and ests while supporters of the left- with UGTT,” said financial expert other member of the seven-party Chahed warned. business leaders are disappointed leaning Popular Front coalition Ezzeddine Saidane. coalition government, earlier had a Tunisia’s debt has ballooned as well as other quarters of the so- took to streets in Tunis advocating “If the government fails in its similar conference. from 40% of the budget in 2010 to ciety because of the evasion prob- a “budget for the poor” as an alter- commitment to the IMF, Tunisia Ennahda President Rached an expected 53% this year and a lem,” said lawyer Taieb Ben Jemaa. native to the government’s propos- will hit an impasse — a complete Ghannouchi said, in an oblique projected 64% in 2017. Nabil Abdellatif, a financial ex- als. asphyxia of the public finances and criticism of the budget, that he “The government has no big pol- pert, argued that the “govern- The draft budget expects spend- of the whole Tunisian economy, a hoped for a “compromise over the icy leeway on 82% of the budget, ment’s forecast of 2.5% GDP for ing of $14.5 billion for 2017, up full strangulation of the economy budget draft” before the end of as 45% of it goes to salaries and 2017 growth is a big dream. It aims 11.5% versus 2016 and forecasts to meet the demand of IMF to stop a growth rate of 2.5% of gross do- the part of salaries at 14% of GDP”. mestic product (GDP) after an ex- “The same play [is seen] with pected growth of 1% this year. The figures for investment forecast draft budget was compiled after of 6.4 billion dinars ($2.86 bil- assuming oil prices of $50 a barrel. lion) while the real possibility to The 2016 budget was against a $40 achieve investments do not exceed per barrel price.