Kuwait in Focus August 2010 CONTENTS Kuwait Economic Brief ........................................................................................2 Oil Market and Budget Developments ..............................................................3 Consumer Price Inflation ..................................................................................6 Monetary Developments June 2010 ................................................................9 Kuwait's GDP in 2009 ...................................................................................14 Real Estate Activity .......................................................................................18 Public Finance ...............................................................................................23 Companies in Focus ..........................................................................................26 Ahli United Bank (Almutahed) ........................................................................27 Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait (ABK) .......................................................................30 Aviation Lease and Finance Company (ALAFCO) ..........................................33 Boubyan Petrochemical .................................................................................36 Burgan Bank (Burgan) ...................................................................................39 Burgan Co. for Well Drilling, Trading and Maintenance (Burgan Well Drilling) ....43 City Group ....................................................................................................45 Commercial Real Estate Company (Altijaria) ...................................................48 Gulf Cable and Electrical Industries Company (Gulf Cable) .............................52 Gulf Insurance Company (GIC) .......................................................................55 Injazzat Real Estate Development Company (Injazzat) ...................................59 Kuwait Cement Company ..............................................................................63 Kuwait Finance House (KFH) ........................................................................66 Kuwait Financial Center (Markaz) ...................................................................70 Kuwait Food Group (Americana) ....................................................................74 Kuwait and Gulf Link Transport Company (KGL) ...........................................77 Kuwait National Cinema Company (KNCC) ....................................................80 Kuwait Projects (KIPCO) ...............................................................................83 Mabanee Company .......................................................................................88 Mashaer Holding Company (Mashaer) ............................................................92 Mobile Telecommunications Company (Zain) ..................................................95 National Industries Group Holding (NIG) .......................................................100 National Investment Company (NIC) ............................................................104 National Real Estate Company (NREC) ........................................................107 Oula Fuel Marketing Company (Oula) ...........................................................110 Tamdeen Group ..........................................................................................113 Tamdeen Investment Company (Tamdeen) ..................................................117 United Real Estate Company (United Real Estate) .......................................120 YIACO Medical Company (YIACO) ..............................................................123 Economic Statistics ........................................................................................126 Kuwait Market Statistics .................................................................................130 1 | nbkcapital.com Kuwait Economic Brief • Oil Market and Budget Developments • Consumer Price Inflation • Monetary Developments June 2010 • Kuwait's GDP in 2009 • Real Estate Activity • Public Finance National Bank of Kuwait NBK Economic Research T. +965 2259 5500 F. +965 2224 6973 E. [email protected] DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, National Bank of Kuwait accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. The Economic Brief is distributed on a complimentary and discretionary basis to NBK clients and associates. This report and previous issues can be found in the “Reports” section of the National Bank of Kuwait’s web site. © Copyright Notice: NBK Economic Brief is a publication of National Bank of Kuwait. No part of this publication may be reproduced or duplicated without the prior consent of NBK. 2 | nbkcapital.com Kuwait Economic Brief Kuwait in Focus - August 2010 OIL MARKET AND BUDGET DEVELOPMENTS Crude prices rise on weak dollar, stronger oil demand... Kuwait could see a KD6 bn budget surplus in FY10/11… After starting the month weakly, crude oil prices crept slowly upward through July, reversing most of their earlier losses. The price of Kuwait Export Crude (KEC) finished July at USD 73 per barrel (pb) after dipping below USD 68 at the start of the month. Nevertheless, this is still some way off the near 2-year high of USD 84 recorded in early May. Despite a certain amount of volatility, prices have been fluctuating at or close to the USD 70-80 pb range for the past nine months, leaving USD 70 looking like a floor for prices at present. Prices push higher despite Crude’s solid performance through July came despite fears that the recovery in the global economy uncertain macroeconomic may be softening, including data showing that US gross domestic product (GDP) growth decelerated in environment… 2Q2010 and that Chinese manufacturing activity slowed to a 17-month low. However, there have been two important offsetting forces. First, despite macroeconomic concerns, demand for oil seems to be holding up relatively well. The latest release from the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) – an international body set up to improve oil sector data and timeliness – showed OECD oil demand rose at its strongest for more than seven years in May. Second, crude prices were supported by a weaker dollar, which fell 4% in trade-weighted terms in July and by 6% against the Euro. In Euro terms, crude was more or less unchanged at around EUR 56 pb through the month. Kuwait Export Crude (USD/barrel) 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 Future Projections Correspond to NBK’s price scenarios. Source: NBK Economic Research Department Major global benchmarks Support for crude saw the prices of most major global benchmarks breech the USD 80 pb mark re-test the USD 80 mark… in early August. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached USD 81 on August 2nd, some USD 9 above its low in early July. Meanwhile, WTI’s main European equivalent, Brent, increased nearly USD 11 from its low to USD 82. Futures contracts for both crudes have also climbed strongly, with prices now expected to reach almost USD 88 by the end of 2012. Solid growth in global oil In support of this outlook for prices, analysts expect two years of strong growth in oil demand demand seen over the coming for 2010 and 2011, with few appearing to back the case for a violent ‘double-dip’ in the world two years… economy. In most projections, emerging markets will continue to account for the bulk of the nbkcapital.com | 3 Kuwait Economic Brief Kuwait in Focus - August 2010 increase in oil demand, but the share contributed by richer markets will rise. The Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), for example, sees global oil demand expanding by 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) this year (1.8%) and 1.6 mbpd (1.8%) next. Countries outside the OECD account for all of the increase this year, but just over 80% in 2011. The International Energy Agency (IEA), meanwhile, expects growth of 1.8 mbpd (2.1%) this year and 1.4 mbpd (1.6%) next. However, unlike other forecasters, the IEA sees demand in the OECD resuming a gentle decline in 2011 as a combination of efficiency gains and substitution towards other types of fuels more than offsets the impact of faster economic growth on oil demand. KEC Price Scenarios Scenario Low Base High (USD per barrel) Price Case Price 2009 60.4 60.4 60.4 1Q2010 74.4 74.4 74.4 FY2009/FY2010 68.6 68.6 68.6 2Q2010 75.9 75.9 75.9 3Q2010f 70.0 72.0 78.1 4Q2010f 64.9 70.1 82.2 2010f 71.3 73.1 77.6 1Q2011f 58.6 67.2 82.8 FY2010/FY2011f 67.3 71.3 79.7 Source: NBK Economic Research Department Note that OPEC continues to offer a more pessimistic view. OPEC sees demand growing by a cumulative 1.1 mbpd less over 2010 and 2011 than the IEA, for example. This helps to justify the cartel’s cautiousness over any future increases in OPEC's own crude production. Saudi output increases could According to data published by OPEC, crude output of the OPEC-11 (i.e., excluding Iraq) rose signal softening of the OPEC by 64,000 bpd in June to 26.86 mbpd – its second-largest monthly jump this year. Overall policy stance… production is more than 2 mbpd above its official quota levels, an effective compliance rate of around 50% with the output quotas set in December 2008. Most of the increase in June came from Saudi Arabia, which saw its output rise by 44,000 bpd, its biggest jump in nearly a year. Since the Kingdom is usually one of the organization’s most disciplined members,