Plant Pest Risk Analysis Concepts and Application This page intentionally left blank Plant Pest Risk Analysis Concepts and Application Edited by Christina Devorshak CABI is a trading name of CAB International CABI CABI Nosworthy Way 38 Chauncey Street Wallingford Suite 1002 Oxfordshire OX10 8DE Boston, MA 02111 UK USA Tel: +44 (0)1491 832111 Tel: +1 800 552 3083 (toll free) Fax: +44 (0)1491 833508 Tel: +1 (0)617 395 4051 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.cabi.org © CAB International 2012. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronically, mechanically, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owners. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library, London, UK. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Plant pest risk analysis : concepts and application / C. Devorshak, ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-78064-036-5 (alk. paper) 1. Plants, Protection of. 2. Risk assessment. 3. Insect pests--Control. 4. Agricultural pests--Control. I. Devorshak, Christina, 1969- SB950.P55 2012 628.9'6--dc23 2012025556 ISBN-13: 978 1 78064 03 5 Commissioning editor: Rachel Cutts Editorial assistant: Chris Shire Production editor: Simon Hill Typeset by SPi, Pondicherry, India. Printed and bound in the UK by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY. Contents Contributors vii Acknowledgements ix PART I: PEST RISK ANALYSIS BACKGROUND AND HISTORY 1. Introduction 3 2. Basic Concepts in Risk Analysis 7 3. History of Plant Quarantine and the Use of Risk Analysis 19 4. International Legal and Regulatory Framework for Risk Analysis 29 PART II: PEST RISK ANALYSIS – COMPONENTS AND APPLICATIONS 5. Terminology Used in Pest Risk Analysis 45 6. Information and Pest Risk Analysis 57 7. Economic Analysis in Pest Risk Analysis 65 8. Types and Applications of Pest Risk Analysis 83 PART III: PEST RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS 9. Qualitative Methods 97 10. Quantitative Methods 119 11. Pest Risk Assessment 135 12. Mapping, Climate and Geographic Information for Risk Analysis 151 v vi Contents PART IV: PEST RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK COMMUNICATION AND UNCERTAINTY 13. Pest Risk Management Theory and Background 167 14. Pest Risk Management Applications and Practice 179 15. Risk Communication in Pest Risk Analysis 199 16. Uncertainty in Pest Risk Analysis 209 PART V: SPECIAL TOPICS FOR PEST RISK ANALYSIS 17. Special Applications of Pest Risk Analysis – Beneficial Organisms 225 18. Special Applications of Pest Risk Analysis – Weed Risk Assessment 237 19. Appropriate Level of Protection, Precaution and Jurisprudence 257 20. Invasive Species and Living Modified Organisms 269 Acronyms 281 Glossary 283 Index 289 Contributors Chapter 2: Robert Griffin ([email protected]) Chapter 7: Lottie Erikson ([email protected]) Chapter 10: Robert Griffin Chapter 11: Christina Devorshak ([email protected]) and Alison Neeley ([email protected]) Chapter 12: Glenn Fowler ([email protected]) and Yu Takeuchi (Yu. [email protected]) Chapter 13: Robert Griffin and Alison Neeley Chapter 14: Robert Griffin Chapter 15: Alison Neeley and Christina Devorshak Chapter 16: Robert Griffin Chapter 17: Stephanie Bloem ([email protected]) and Kenneth Bloem ([email protected]) Chapter 18: Anthony Koop ([email protected]) Chapter 19: Robert Griffin vii This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgements This text represents the team effort of many individuals and colleagues from the USDA APHIS PPQ CPHST Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory (PERAL). They have served as authors, contributors, reviewers, editors and sources of information. Between them, they are experts in economics, climate and mapping, entomology, plant pathology, weed science, botany, risk analysis, international trade and international development. They are practising pest risk analysts, working on projects as diverse as developing predic- tive models for pest spread, to economic models on pest impacts, to developing interna- tional guidance on pest risk analysis. Together, they bring years of experience in pest risk analysis from different back- grounds – including working in the US Department of Agriculture, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the International Plant Protection Convention and as faculty at universities – with expertise in areas as diverse as international standards development to biological, economic and climate modelling in risk analysis. As a group, they have been active in educating stu- dents and plant protection professionals on various aspects of pest risk analysis at univer- sities and professional workshops, both nationally and internationally. Their expertise and contributions to this text were of immeasurable value and I am grateful to them for their time and efforts in contributing chapters to this text. In addition to the significant efforts of the authors listed above, many others assisted with the production of this text. I am grateful to Robert Griffin for donating not only his own time and expertise, but that of many of his staff in PERAL as writers, reviewers, experts and editors. Lucy Reid,1 the PERAL librarian, tracked down valuable resources for the writ- ers and always managed to come through for us. Tara Holtz,1 Alison Neeley, Ashley Jackson,1 Lottie Erikson, Glenn Fowler and Stephanie Bloem all provided reviews and inputs during various stages of the development of this work. Much of the material that served as the basis for this book came from PERAL’s flagship course, ‘Risk Analysis 101’ – the materials for that course having been developed over the past six years. In teaching that course, I always learned just as much from the students as I have taught them. It is thanks to their valuable suggestions for improvements to course materials that PERAL has developed one of the best pest risk analysis training courses available – which in turn served as the inspiration and basis for this book. ix x Acknowledgements I must also express sincere appreciation to colleagues in other countries and other plant protection services who are also working in the field of pest risk analysis and regula- tory plant protection. My work in the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) for five years, then subsequently as a risk analyst in PERAL, has given me unique and valuable opportunities to interact with risk practitioners from all over the world – and more impor- tantly, the chance to learn more about how they conduct pest risk analysis. Over the years, and at countless meetings, I’ve always been amazed at the passion, commitment and wealth of knowledge so many of them have for this work. And because of these colleagues, I was able to learn about pest risk analysis from some of the best practitioners in the world. We have all learned from each other, and we eagerly continue to learn – such is the nature of the field of pest risk analysis. Finally, additional acknowledgments go to Roger Magarey,1 Leslie Newton,1 Manuel Colunga-Garcia,2 Dan Borchert,1 Barney Caton,1 Ron Sequeira,1 Bill Smith,3 Frank Koch,3 Ross Meentemeyer,4 Matt Dedmon,5 Joe Russo,5 Mike Simon,6 Gary Lougee6 and Lisa Ferguson1 for their assistance with Chapter 12 and to Larry Fowler1 and Claire Wilson7 for their assistance with Chapter 18. Notes 1 Mailing address and affiliation: USDA-APHIS-PPQ-CPHST, 1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300, Raleigh, NC, 27606 USA 2 Michigan State University. 3 USDA Forest Service. 4 UNC-Charlotte. 5 ZedX, Inc. 6 USDA-APHIS-PPQ-QPAS. 7 Canadian Food Inspection Agency. Part I Pest Risk Analysis Background and History This page intentionally left blank 1 Introduction Christina Devorshak 1.1. Purpose of this Textbook pathologists, botanists, weed scientists, ecologists or economists who have learned Pest risk analysis is an evolving and dynamic about risk analysis outside of a traditional field. In the past 20 years, countries all over educational setting. In fact, most pest risk ana- the world have adopted pest risk analysis as lysts have probably learned about pest risk a means to inform regulatory decisions for analysis through being mentored by col- plant protection. During that time, pest risk leagues, attending workshops and professional analysis has undergone an evolution – pest meetings, through specialized professional risk analysts have adapted methods used in training, or simply by learning on the job. other sectors, scientific information to sup- In the past several years, plant protec- port analyses is more available than ever, and tion services, as well as institutes of higher the need for more, better and different types education, have recognized the importance of pest risk analyses continues to grow. of developing curricula in regulatory plant Pest risk analysis informs and guides protection, and for pest risk analysis in par- decisions for regulatory plant protection – ticular. Courses are being developed in dif- from domestic activities such as prioritizing ferent countries and at different universities pests for surveillance to making quarantine to educate students about regulatory plant decisions regarding the importation of prod- protection, and to foster a new generation of ucts from other countries. The need for ana- plant protection specialists. However, there lytical support for decision makers has become is a noticeable gap in educational materials indispensable. Moreover, regulatory plant pro- available to support the development of tection decisions affecting imported products such courses. are required, under international treaties, to be This textbook is intended to fill that supported by an assessment of risk. gap – it provides a solid foundation in the The need for better, faster and more field of pest risk analysis and its application diverse types of pest risk analyses places to regulatory plant protection. The intended demands on plant protection services for audience of this text is upper-level students more analytical support.