First Order Draft Chapter 7 IPCC SRCCL 1 Chapter 7: Risk management and Decision Making in Relation 2 to Sustainable Development 3 4 Coordinating Lead Authors: Margot Hurlbert (Canada), Jagdish Krishnaswamy (India) 5 Lead Authors: Edouard Davin (France), Francis X. Johnson (Sweden), Carlos Fernando Mena 6 (Ecuador), John Morton (United Kingdom), Soojeong Myeong (Republic of Korea), David Viner 7 (United Kingdom), Koko Warner (United States of America), Anita Wreford (New Zealand), Sumaya 8 Zakieldeen (Sudan), Zinta Zommers (Latvia) 9 Contributing Authors: Kerry Bowman (Canada), Katherine Calvin (United States of America), Rocio 10 Diaz-Chavez (Mexico), Minal Pathak (India), Yousef Manialawy (Canada), Julian Quan (UK), Balaji 11 Rajagopalan (United States of America), Jorge E. Rodríguez-Morales (Peru), Charlotte Streck 12 (Germany), Wim Thiery (Belgium), Alan Warner (Barbados) 13 Review Editors: Regina Rodrigues (Brazil), B.L. Turner II (United States of America) 14 Chapter Scientist: Thobekile Zikhali (Zimbabwe) 15 Date of Draft: 16/11/2018 16 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 7-1 Total pages: 201 First Order Draft Chapter 7 IPCC SRCCL 1 Table of Contents 2 Chapter 7: Risk management and Decision Making in Relation to Sustainable Development ..... 7-1 3 7.1 Executive summary .............................................................................................................. 7-4 4 7.2 Introduction and Relation to Other Chapters ....................................................................... 7-7 5 7.2.1 Findings of Previous IPCC Assessments and Reports ................................................. 7-8 6 7.2.2 Treatment of Key Terms in the Chapter .................................................................... 7-10 7 7.2.3 Roadmap to the chapter .............................................................................................. 7-11 8 7.3 Climate-related risks for natural and human land systems ................................................ 7-11 9 7.3.1 Describing Risk and Drivers ...................................................................................... 7-11 10 7.3.2 Risks due to climate change ....................................................................................... 7-14 11 7.3.3 Risks arising from responses to climate change ........................................................ 7-20 12 7.4 Consequences of climate – land change for human well-being and sustainable development 13 7-26 14 7.4.1 Economic considerations – What is at stake? ................................................................... 7-30 15 7.5 Policy Response to Risk ........................................................................................................... 7-38 16 7.5.1 Policy Response to Multi-Level Risks to Society from Climate – Land Interactions risk 7-38 17 7.5.2 Policies for Social Protection ............................................................................................ 7-42 18 7.5.3 Policies Responding to Hazard ......................................................................................... 7-43 19 7.5.4 Policies Responding to GHG fluxes ................................................................................. 7-47 20 7.5.5 Policies Responding to Desertification – Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) ............... 7-54 21 7.5.6 Policies Responding to Land Degradation ........................................................................ 7-57 22 7.5.7 Policies for Food Security ................................................................................................. 7-63 23 7.5.8 Enabling effective policy instruments – Policy mix coherence ........................................ 7-65 24 7.5.9 Barriers to Sustainable Land Management and Overcoming Barriers .............................. 7-67 25 Cross-Chapter Box 6: Gender in integrative approaches for land, climate change and sustainable 26 development ....................................................................................................................................... 7-67 27 7.6 Decision-making for Climate Change and Land ...................................................................... 7-74 28 7.6.1 Formal and Informal decision-making .............................................................................. 7-75 29 7.6.2 Decision Making, Risk, and Uncertainty .......................................................................... 7-77 30 7.6.3 Best practices of decision making toward sustainable land management ......................... 7-81 31 7.6.4 Adaptive management ....................................................................................................... 7-82 32 7.6.5 Participation ...................................................................................................................... 7-84 33 7.6.6 Performance indicators ..................................................................................................... 7-89 34 7.6.7 Maximizing Synergies and Avoiding Trade-offs .............................................................. 7-89 35 7.7 Governance: Governing the land-climate interface ................................................................. 7-94 36 7.7.1 Institutions Building Adaptive Capacity ........................................................................... 7-95 37 7.7.2 Levels, Modes, and Scale of Governance for Sustainable Development .......................... 7-96 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 7-2 Total pages: 201 First Order Draft Chapter 7 IPCC SRCCL 1 7.7.3 Adaptive Governance Responding to Uncertainty ............................................................ 7-97 2 7.7.4 Land Tenure .................................................................................................................... 7-103 3 7.7.5 Institutional dimensions of adaptive governance ............................................................ 7-107 4 7.7.6 Inclusive governance for Sustainable Development ....................................................... 7-109 5 7.8 Key uncertainties and knowledge gaps .................................................................................. 7-109 6 Cross-Chapter Box 7: Ecosystem services and their relation to the land-climate system ............... 7-110 7 Cross-Chapter Box 8: Land-climate implications of traditional biomass use .................................. 7-114 8 Frequently Asked Questions ............................................................................................................ 7-117 9 References ........................................................................................................................................ 7-117 10 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 7-3 Total pages: 201 First Order Draft Chapter 7: IPCC SRCCL 1 7.1 Executive summary 2 The interactions between climate change and land affect the central issues in sustainable 3 development: how and where people live and work, their access to essential resources and 4 ecosystem services, and food security. This chapter assesses the literature on risk, decision making, 5 policy, and governance of land degradation, desertification and food security in the context of land and 6 climate interactions. The chapter assesses and builds on scientific literature since previous IPCC 7 Reports (IPCC 2012, 2014a) {7.2}. 8 Changes in land-climate interactions will exacerbate the trend of ecosystems shifting to new 9 biomes and permanent loss of insects, plants, and vertebrates (high agreement, medium evidence). 10 In a 1.5°C scenario, combinations of climate and land change will likely drive 7% of current ecosystems 11 to new biome types, such as forest to grassland, and grassland to arid desert (high agreement, medium 12 evidence). Risks increase with rising temperature and are not evenly distributed across regions (high 13 confidence). Such risks contribute to an increased likelihood of land degradation and desertification, as 14 well as higher rates of food insecurity. At 1˚C and 2˚C, low-latitudes areas are most vulnerable to 15 decreases in yields while in scenarios with over 3˚C of global mean temperature increase significant 16 declines in yields across all regions of the world. 17 Within the 1.5 degrees range of warming, significant threats exist human settlements near coasts, 18 food systems at low latitudes, and ecosystems related to coral reef tipping points (high agreement, 19 high evidence). Extreme heat and crop yield reductions are expected to increase most in tropical regions 20 in Africa and South-East Asia under 2˚C warming, which combined with the other stressors these 21 regions already face, may be very difficult to adapt to. In the range of 1.5˚C and 2˚C, some of the places 22 and systems already vulnerable to water shortages, such as the Mediterranean (including North Africa 23 and the Levant) are projected to experience more acute dry spells and decreasing water availability 24 {7.3}. 25 Beyond localised economic effects, a 2˚C warming scenario is likely to be associated with 26 significantly lower economic growth for many countries (medium confidence, medium agreement). 27 Warming is likely to amplify global inequalities (high evidence, high agreement). Limiting temperature 28 increase to below 1.5˚C will very likely avert a number of impacts and implications that would 29 otherwise be difficult to adapt to. Risks may arise in one domain and cascade through different domains 30 such as human health, biodiversity and ecosystem