2013 Migration Update Conference Ebbs and Flows of Regional Migration Keynote Address 2013 Migration Update Professor Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow & Professor of Geography Director, National Centre for Social Applications of Geographic Information Systems The University of Adelaide Presented by Dr Helen Feist – Deputy Director, Australian Population & Migrant Research Centre MIGRATION UPDATE 2013 by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow and Professor of Geography, The University of Adelaide Presentation to 2013 Migration Update Conference, Adelaide 19th September, 2013 Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Global Trends • Australian Trends - Permanent - Temporary • South Australia and Regional Settlement • Issues • Conclusion Challenges in Monitoring Migration • Data quality - neglects emigration - neglects non-permanent movements - undocumented migration - stocks vs flows • Contested area • Lack of evidence driven policy • Public debates & Media – asylum seekers, 457s 2013 International Migrants Source: United Nations International Population Division • 232m living outside country of birth • 137m in high income countries (11% of total) • 95m of them from low income countries (1.8% of total) • 2000-05 – increased 12.8m • 2005-10 – increased 10.5m • 2010-13 – increased 18m • Females 49% Top Immigration Countries, 2010 Source: World Bank 2011 Top Emigration Countries, 2010 Source: World Bank 2011 Permanent migration inflows into selected OECD and non-OECD countries, 2007 and 2010 Source: OECD 2012, p.30 Population growth between 2000 and 2010 and its components Source: OECD 2012, p.52 Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates Source: World Bank, 2006 World Refugee Situation, End 2012 Source: UNHCR 2013 Number % Annual Change Refugees 9,881,538 0.8 People in Refugee-like situations 618,703 2.4 Asylum Seekers 936,740 4.6 IDPs 1,760,368 14.2 Refugees in LDCs 9,419,280 0.8 Key Global Issues • Asylum seekers • Migration and its links to Development • Impact of GFC • Climate Change/Environment and Migration • Migration and Conflict, Refugees • Undocumented Migration • Governance and Capacity – Key Challenges • Media representation • Growing significance of Asia • Lack of evidence driven policy • Student migration • Brain drain Indicators of Australian Diversity, 2011 Source: ABS, 2011 Census Indicator Percent Born overseas 26.1 Born overseas in NES country 16.6 Australia-born with an overseas-born parent 18.8 Speaks language other than English at home 19.2 Ancestry (multi response) in a NES country (2006) 26.0 Non-Christian religion 22.3 Indigenous Population 2.6 No. of birthplace groups with 10,000 + 67 No. of birthplace groups with 1,000 + 133 No. of indigenous persons 548,369 Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2012 Source: ABS 1997 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 Persons 200,000 Net Migration 150,000 100,000 Natural Increase 50,000 0 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 Year Top ten citizenships of migrant arrivals 2012-13 Source: DIAC 2013, p.5 Number 140,000 100,000 120,000 Source: DIAC DIAC Source: 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 by Stream and Non and Stream by Australia: Migration Program Outcome Outcome Program Migration Australia: 0 1976-77 Population Flows: Immigration Aspects Immigration Flows: Population 1977-78 Family 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 Skill 1983-84 1984-85 1976 1985-86 Special Eligibility 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 - , various issues; DIAC , issues;various DIAC 1989-90 to2012 7 1990-91 1991-92 - 1992-93 Program Migration, Migration, Program Year 1993-94 1994-95 Other/New Zealand Citizens Zealand Other/New 1995-96 Update Immigration 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 - 13 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 , variousissues;DIAC and 2012 2013 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Humanitarian 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 * * Boat arrivals to 31st May 2013. Air Arrivals not available Number Australia: Unauthorised Arrivals,Australia: Unauthorised 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 5,000 Source: DIMIA andDIAC 2004 2005; 2002, 2007; DIAC 0 1989/90 1990/91 Air Arrivals Boat Arrivals 1991/92 1992/93 1989 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 - 90 to 2012 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 Report Annual Year 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 , issues;various Phillipsand SpinksDIAC 2012; 2013 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 - 13 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 *2012/13 Australia: Migration Program Numbers 2011-12 2012-13 Planning Level 185,000 190,000 Skill 125,755 129,250 Regional Skilled 16,471 16,000 Family 58,604 60,185 Special Eligibility 639 565 Humanitarian 13,750 20,000 Migration program outcomes from 2003-04 to 2012-13 Source: DIAC 2013, p.4 Migration program category outcomes 2012-13 – onshore versus offshore Source: DIAC 2013, p.5 Employer sponsored outcome 2003- 04 to 2012-13 Source: DIAC 2013, p.10 Components of NOM Source: DIAC 2012, p.6 Number of Visas Granted 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 50,000 Australia: Temporary Migration, Australia: Temporary 0 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 Source:DIAC 1989-90 Overseas Students 1990-91 1986 1991-92 , Population Flows: Immigration Aspects 1992-93 1993-94 - 1994-95 87 to 2011 1995-96 1996-97 Working Holiday Holiday Working Makers Year 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 , various issues; DIAC DIAC issues;2012 various , 2001-02 2002-03 - 2003-04 12 2004-05 457s 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Working Holiday Program Visa Countries Uncapped countries Capped Countries* Belgium Argentina Canada Bangladesh Cyprus Chile Denmark Indonesia Estonia Malaysia Finland Papua New Guinea France Thailand Germany Turkey Hong Kong USA Ireland Uruguay Italy Japan Korea Malta Netherlands *all allowed a small number of entrants except for USA Norway **Negotiations also in place to have capped programs with: Sweden Andorra, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Latvia, Taiwan Mexico, Poland, San Marino, Slovak Republic, Spain, Vietnam United Kingdom Number of student visa applications lodged by citizenship country in the last seven financial years Source: DIAC 2013, p.12 Main Origin Countries 457s - 2011-12 (54,060) UK 15,750 33.2 India 11,940 37.1 Ireland 6,320 62.5 Philippines 5,000 122.2 USA 4,840 23.8 China 2,590 159.0 South Africa 1,550 19.2 Canada 1,950 17.5 Germany 1,570 18.0 France 1,400 20.7 Malaysia 1,150 29.2 SSRM as a percentage of the skill stream Source: DIAC 2013, p.14 RSMS outcomes 2003-04 to 2012-13 Source: DIAC 2013, p.11 Australia: Permanent Additions by State According to Whether They are State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Migrants or Other Migrants, 2010-11 Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues; DIAC 2011 Number of Immigrants with Visas Granted Under the State Regional Specific Migration Mechanisms and Their Proportion of the Total Immigrant Intake,* 1997-98 to 2011-12 Source: DIAC, Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC, Immigration Update, various issues; DIAC 2012b Percent of Total Year Number Percent of Total Percent in SA Immigrant Intake Immigrant Intake* in SA* 1997-98 1,753 2.3 34.5 19.7 1998-99 2,804 3.3 36.9 31.1 1999-2000 3,309 3.6 21.2 22.6 2000-01 3,846 3.6 19.5 23.6 2001-02 4,136 3.4 17.5 15.8 2002-03 7,941 6.3 16.7 28.3 2003-04 12,725 8.5 16.6 33.6 2004-05 18,697 11.2 26.5 56.3 2005-06 27,488 15.3 29.8 68.9 2006-07 25,845 13.5 27.7 54.9 2007-08 26,162 12.7 26.9 54.1 2008-09 33,474 14.9 22.9 56.9 2009-10 36,568 17.5 26.0 83.9 2010-11 37,410 17.5 19.9 63.9 2011-12 47,733 20.1 na na * Permanent additions from 2001-02. South Australia: Permanent Additions by Category, 2001-02 to 2011-12 Source: DIAC, 2013, 59 South Australia: Top 10 Source Countries of Permanent Additions, 2010-11 Source: DIAC 2012, p.126 Country of Birth Onshore Offshore Total People’s Republic of China 1,138 715 1,853 India 741 841 1,582 United Kingdom 340 864 1,204 Philippines 217 376 593 Afghanistan 53 364 417 New Zealand 0 412 412 Korea¹ 165 227 392 South Africa 173 196 368 Malaysia 171 137 308 Sri Lanka 70 223 293 Other 1,449 2,850 4,299 Total 4,517 7,204 11,721 ¹ Includes North and South Korea South Australia: Ten Largest Overseas-Born Groups, 2006 and 2011 Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Census Birthplace 2006 2011 % Change United Kingdom 121,051 122,260 1.0 Italy 22,485 20,711 -7.9 India 6,830 18,742 174.4 China 8,082 15,933 97.1 New Zealand 11,366 12,850 13.1 Vietnam 10,546 12,026 14.0 Germany 11,970 11,408 -4.7 Greece 10,782 9,757 -9.5 Philippines 5,440 8,858 62.8 Netherlands 7,798 7,281 -6.6 South Australia: Net Overseas Migration Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues % of All Australia Year Net Gain 1999-2000 3,829 3.6 2000-01 2,765 2.0 2001-02 2,798 2.5 2002-03 3,904 3.4 2003-04 4,305 4.3 2004-05 7,020 5.7 2005-06 9,813 6.7 2006-07 14,633 6.3 2007-08 15,327 6.3 2008-09 18,005 5.5 2009-10 14,537 6.0 2010-11 9,168 7.4 2011-12 11,413 5.1 2012 (Calendar Year) 11,696 5.2 Trends in Temporary Migrants Source: DIAC 2013 2011-12 Number SA % of Australia Visitor Arrivals 100,742 2.67 % Change 2010-11 to 2011-12 3.2 0.5 Students 2012 18,830 6.13 Students 2010 22,190 5.8 457s 5,100 3.15 Stock of students—SA, at 30 June, 2004 to 2012 Source: DIAC 2013, p.62 Overseas Students by Top 10 Regions of Origin, South Australia, YTD June 2012 Source: Australian Education International Business (Long Stay) program grants and stock (at 30 June)—SA, 2004 to 2012 Source: DIAC