Democracy and Deterrence Foundations for an Enduring World Peace DR. WALTER GARY SHARP SR. Air University Press Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama May 2008 Muir S. Fairchild Research Information Center Cataloging Data Sharp, Walter Gary. Democracy and deterrence : foundations for an enduring world peace / Walter Gary Sharp, Sr. p. ; cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-58566-180-0 1. Deterrence (Strategy) 2. Democracy. 3. War—Prevention. I. Title. 327.172—dc22 Disclaimer Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Air University, the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. Cleared for public release: distribution unlimited. Air University Press 131 West Shumacher Avenue Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-5962 http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil ii Dedicated to my loving wife Anne Marie Sharp from whom all good in my life flows Contents Chapter Page DISCLAIMER . ii DEDICATION . iii FOREWORD . ix ABOUT THE AUTHOR . xi PREFACE . xiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . xv 1 LIBERAL DEMOCRACY AND ITS GLOBAL INFLUENCE . 1 Features of a Liberal Democracy . 2 Global Political Trends . 7 Notes . 17 2 CONVENTIONAL THEORIES OF WAR AND WAR AVOIDANCE . 19 Conventional Thinking on the Cause of War . 21 Conventional Approaches to War Avoidance . 24 Deterrence as a Tool of War Avoidance . 31 The Law of Conflict Management . 35 The Future of Armed Conflict . 38 Notes . 40 3 THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE PRINCIPLE . 45 The Early Debate . 45 Contemporary Studies and Methodologies . 49 Explanations for the Democratic Peace Principle . 63 Challenges and Alternate Rationales . 72 Notes . 78 4 WAR AVOIDANCE THROUGH INCENTIVES AND DETERRENCE . 83 Moore’s Postulate on the Cause of War . 85 Moore’s Incentive Theory of War Avoidance . 92 Notes . 101 v CONTENTS Chapter Page 5 A VALIDATION OF THE INCENTIVE THEORY OF WAR AVOIDANCE . 103 Paths to Peace: Domestic and International Factors In War Avoidance . 103 An Analysis of the Role of Deterrence in the 1991 Persian Gulf War . 106 Notes . 119 6 CORRELATIVE VALUES OF DEMOCRACY . 123 The Human-Development Benefits of Democracy . 124 Rating Freedom and Human Development among the Nations . 127 Notes . 152 7 CONCLUSION: DEMOCRACY AND DETERRENCE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY . 155 Notes . 163 Appendix A Freedom, Human Development, and Democracy Ratings . 165 B A Brief History of US Foreign Policy Concerning the Spread of Democracy around the World . 237 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS . 249 BIBLIOGRAPHY . 251 INDEX . 265 vi CONTENTS Illustrations Figure Page 1 Changes in the percentage of the world’s population under democratic, nondemocratic and not-self- governing or anarchic governments (1942–97) . 9 2 American foreign policy and changes in the per- centage of the world’s population under demo- cratic, nondemocratic, and not-self-governing or anarchic governments (1942–97) . 10 Tables 1 Features of a model liberal democracy . 5 2 Approximate percentage of world’s population under selected forms of government (1942–97) . 8 3 Principal assumptions, strengths, and weaknesses of selected approaches to war avoidance . 29 4 Summary of Rummel’s data on the democracy/ dyadic violence proposition . 59 5 Summary of Rummel’s data on the democracy/ democide proposition . 61 6 Summary of Moore’s incentive theory of war avoidance . 95 7 Notional values for the baseline factors of Moore’s incentive theory of war avoidance . 100 8 Rummel’s principles of self-knowledge . 108 9 Index values for incentive and deterrence factors for the 1991 Persian Gulf War . 117 10 Conversion of scales used in table A1 to normalized scales used in table A2 . 135 11 Jurisdictions sorted by aggregated index value of democracy (Da) . 136 12 Legal systems and forms of government for 193 jurisdictions . 143 vii CONTENTS Table Page 13 GDP, population, and related data for the world’s top 15 economies, sorted by Da . 145 14 Heavily indebted poor countries sorted by Da . 146 15 Legal systems and forms of government for HIPCs . 148 16 Freedom House 16 worst regimes sorted by Da . 150 A1 Freedom and human development ratings for 267 national and territorial jurisdictions . 167 A2 Normalized freedom and human development ratings for 193 selected jurisdictions . 214 A3 193 selected jurisdictions sorted by aggregated index value of democracy (Da), from highest to lowest . 226 B1 American foreign policies from isolationism to engagement . 245 viii Foreword The causes of armed conflict have historically been viewed in primarily sociological terms, with political, religious, economic, and military factors sharing primacy. Few have examined the causes of warfare in the context of a deterrence model or, spe- cifically, the deterrence factors inherent in the checks and bal- ances of a democratic state and the absence of such factors in the nondemocratic state. More significantly, none before Prof. John Norton Moore has argued the value of democratic princi- ples in deterrence and conflict avoidance. In this important book, Dr. Gary Sharp analyzes the concepts in Moore’s seminal work The War Puzzle (2005), which describes Moore’s incentive theory of war avoidance. Sharp carefully dis- sects Moore’s deterrence model and examines those incentives that discourage nondemocratic governments from pursuing vio- lent conflicts. Arguing that existing democracies must make an active effort to foster the political environment in which new de- mocracies can develop, Sharp discusses the elements critical to promoting democratization and thus strengthening systemwide deterrence at the state and international levels. Sharp also examines the incentives for conflict avoidance (inter- nal checks and balances) inherent in the democratic state and their relationship to war avoidance. In examining current democracies and comparing them statistically to nondemocratic states, Sharp calculates an aggregated index value of democracy based upon re- spected databases that rank the jurisdictions of the world on po- litical rights, civil liberties, media independence, religious freedom, economic freedom, and human development. Demonstrating through his analysis that democracies are inherently more peace- ful because of the internal checks and balances on the aggressive use of force, Sharp similarly demonstrates how nondemocracies require external checks and balances to preclude aggression. Sharp’s analysis and validation of Moore’s incentive theory of war avoidance is critical to an understanding of those foreign policy strategies that the United States and other democratic nations must embrace as they attempt to reverse a course of history in which 38.5 million war deaths were recorded in the twentieth century alone. By demonstrating how democracy, ix FOREWORD economic freedom, and the rule of law provide essential mecha- nisms to deter leaders from precipitous decisions concerning the use of force, Sharp has provided an invaluable service to the statesman and international lawyer alike. JAMES P. TERRY* Colonel, USMC, Retired December 2007 *Col James P. Terry, USMC, retired, is chairman of the Board of Veterans’ Appeals in the Department of Veterans Affairs. He previously served as the principal deputy assistant secretary for legislative affairs in the Department of State and as legal counsel to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. x About the Author Dr. Walter Gary Sharp Sr. Walter Gary Sharp Sr. serves as a senior associate deputy general counsel for intelligence at the US Department of De- fense, where he advises on legal issues related to intelligence, covert action, intelligence and counterintelligence policy, intel- ligence oversight, information security, information sharing, security classification policy, information operations, and com- puter network operations. Prior to his appointment, Dr. Sharp served as an associate deputy general counsel for international affairs at the Depart- ment of Defense; the director of legal research for international, comparative, and foreign law at the Law Library of Congress; the director of global and functional affairs within the Bureau of Legislative Affairs at the State Department; and a principal in- formation security engineer at The MITRE Corporation. A vet- eran with 25 years of service, Dr. Sharp retired as a decorated US Marine Corps lieutenant colonel with prior enlisted service. His military assignments include commanding officer of a field artillery battery, senior prosecutor, deputy legal counsel to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and international law ad- viser for the commanding general of the Unified Task Force in Somalia during Operation Restore Hope. Dr. Sharp’s military decorations include the Defense Superior Service Medal, and his many awards for writing excellence and academic achievement include the Judge Advocate General’s School Alumni Associa- tion Annual Professional Writing Award and an American Bar Association Award for Professional Merit. xi ABOUT THE AUTHOR Dr. Sharp is the author of numerous articles and three books: UN Peace Operations (1995), CyberSpace and the Use of Force (1999), and Jus Paciarii (1999). He serves as an adjunct profes- sor of law at Georgetown University Law Center where he cur- rently teaches a counterterrorism course, The Law of 24. He has also taught graduate-level seminars on United Nations peace operations and international peace and security. He lec- tures internationally in universities and other diverse public forums on wide-ranging topics of