Towards a New Type of Regime in Sub-Saharan Africa? DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS BUT NO DEMOCRACY Marc-Antoine Pérouse de Montclos cahiers & conférences travaux & recherches les études The Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri) is a research center and a forum for debate on major international political and economic issues. Headed by Thierry de Montbrial since its founding in 1979, Ifri is a non-governmental and a non- profit organization. As an independent think tank, Ifri sets its own research agenda, publishing its findings regularly for a global audience. Using an interdisciplinary approach, Ifri brings together political and economic decision-makers, researchers and internationally renowned experts to animate its debate and research activities. With offices in Paris and Brussels, Ifri stands out as one of the rare French think tanks to have positioned itself at the very heart of European debate. The opinions expressed in this text are the responsibility of the author alone. The Sub-Saharian Africa Program is supported by: Translated by: Henry Kenrick, in collaboration with the author © Droits exclusivement réservés – Ifri – Paris, 2010 ISBN: 978-2-86592-709-8 Ifri Ifri-Bruxelles 27 rue de la Procession Rue Marie-Thérèse, 21 75740 Paris Cedex 15 – France 1000 Bruxelles – Belgique Tél. : +33 (0)1 40 61 60 00 Tél. : +32 (0)2 238 51 10 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Internet Website : Ifri.org Summary Sub-Saharan African hopes of democratization raised by the end of the Cold War and the decline in the number of single party states are giving way to disillusionment. Even countries that were supposed to be islands of democratic stability, Senegal – since its independence in 1960 – and South Africa – since 1994 – are now threatening to veer towards authoritarianism. However, recent events in Mauritania, Niger and Guinea Conakry shouldn’t be misinterpreted as repre- senting the continent; elsewhere, the numbers of attempted and successful coups d’État are decreasing, including in countries like the Comoros or Nigeria that were once world record holders for coups. Most Africans are now ruled by regimes that are neither military juntas nor parliamentary democracies. Between war and peace, they are victims of daily insecurity that exposes the enormous fragility of the young developing states they live in. Some American researchers classify these more or less failed states as “anocracies”, typically presenting some of the following features: . a non-existent or virtual central authority (Somalia, the Central African Republic); . a government under threat of a return to civil war (Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea Bissau, Burundi and perhaps Angola); . high levels of corruption that impoverish public services, feed frustration and aggravate social inequalities when they don’t allow an equitable and informal redistribution of natural resources (Nigeria and the two Congos); . badly legitimized powers that are increasingly contested (Zimbabwe), sometimes combined with unresolved regional tensions (Cameroon, Ethiopia); . a parliamentary system that doesn’t work properly due to electoral fraud and politicians being coopted rather than elected (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Rwanda). As a result, many African countries remain lawless zones that don’t favor investment and development. Moreover, stuck demo- 1 © Ifri M-A. Pérouse de Montclos / Democratic transitions… cratization processes in many countries show the failings of Western- led programs to support “good governance”. The international com- munity has many preconceptions in this regard: an excessive focus on the moment of elections to the detriment of day-to-day politics; illusions about a “magic” correlation between development, demo- cratization, conflict prevention and political stability; and misleading beliefs in the merits of NGOs and “civil” society. 2 © Ifri M-A. Pérouse de Montclos / Democratic transitions… Contents INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 4 THE FACTS ......................................................................................... 6 Undeniable progress since the end of the Cold War ............... 6 “Anocracies”: democratic transitions stuck in a rut .............. 10 NIGERIA ........................................................................................... 15 The importance of regionalism ................................................ 15 The strength of clientelism ...................................................... 18 Discredited Democracy ............................................................ 20 Dangerous elections ................................................................ 21 Three possible future scenarios .............................................. 23 Scenario one: “business as usual” ........................................ 23 Scenario two: the virtuous circle ........................................... 24 Scenario three: a coup d’État ............................................... 25 THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY: MODELS THAT NEED RETHINKING ....................................................... 28 Misleading preconceptions ...................................................... 28 The example of German political foundations ........................ 32 The NGO delusion .................................................................... 34 3 © Ifri M-A. Pérouse de Montclos / Democratic transitions… Introduction Sub-Saharan African hopes of democratization raised by the end of the Cold War and the decline in the number of single party states are giving way to disillusionment. The democratic transitions of the 1990s are stuck in a rut and don’t seem to be radically reforming African leaders’ governance styles. The Horn of Africa appears to be definitively mired in a state of war; Gabon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Togo have perpetuated Syrian-style secular dynasties; while Mauritania, Niger and Guinea-Conakry have revived the “tradition” of the coup d’État. Today, even countries such as Senegal and South Africa, reputed for their democratic nature, are threatening to veer towards authoritarianism. Nevertheless, over the last two decades, the continent has made progress from the dictatorships of the 1980s. As we will see in the first part of this paper, the continent’s political track record is not completely negative; most Africans are now ruled by regimes that are neither military juntas nor parliamentary democracies. More or less failed states with a non-existent or virtual central authority, high levels of violence and corruption, contested and badly legitimized powers, recurring regional tensions and parliamentary systems that don’t work properly due to massive electoral fraud are classified by some American researchers as “anocracies” 1. Nigeria is a classic example of such a regime and the subject of the second part of this paper. The most populous country in Africa, it lives off its oil revenue; political groups compete over state prebends; the country’s elections are a sort of masquerade; and the system of government is based on “godfatherism”, that is, cooptation and corruption. As a result, Nigerians no longer believe in the benefits of democracy, ironically referring to it as “democrazy”. However, the failure of political reforms in Africa is also an indictment of the international community’s limited influence in the region, especially when it comes to supporting “good governance”. Democratic models exported by the West have revealed themselves to not always be up to the task in Africa. So the third part of this paper closely analyzes the international community’s preconceptions in this area: an excessive focus on the moment of elections to the detriment of day-to-day politics; illusions about correlations between develop- 1 Weart, Spencer [1998], Never at war: why democracies will not fight one another, New Haven, Conn. : Yale University Press, 424p. 4 © Ifri M-A. Pérouse de Montclos / Democratic transitions… ment, democratization, conflict prevention and political stability; mis- leading beliefs in the merits of NGOs and “civil” society, etc. Under the pretext of improving the governance of weak states, Western donors have often bypassed corrupt administrations, “emptying” public authorities of their substance. Nowadays, however, develop- ment policies are changing and the state is back in favor, for better or for worse, as international aid still risks propping up presidential cliques. 5 © Ifri M-A. Pérouse de Montclos / Democratic transitions… The facts Ghana – where Barack Obama inaugurated his first tour of Africa – is a symbol. In 2008, the country had a real democratic choice to make when John Atta Mills was elected. It also represents the smiling face of a continent on the path to development: it has a peaceful political life and its cleaned-up economy has started to grow again. Ghana is not the only country to have seen its situation improve since the end of the Cold War. Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire and Angola are no longer wracked by civil war; South Africa has definitely left the torment of apartheid despite the start of an economic downturn and the election of Jacob Zuma, a president suspected of corruption. It even seems that we can generalize, and claim that Africa is moving towards stability and democracy, in spite of the “old-fashioned” authoritarian regimes in Togo, Gabon and Burkina Faso, not to mention the dictatorships of Zimbabwe, Eritrea and Equatorial Guinea. Undeniable