Modeling environmental and economic aspects of a local heat transition Leendert Roelof Haaksman Master Programme Energy and Environmental Sciences, University of Groningen Leendert Roelof Haaksman Master Programme Energy and Environmental Sciences, University of Groningen Name student (first name last name)EES-year- number provided by the secretary Master Programme Energy and Environmental Sciences, University of Groningen Name student (first name last name) EES-year-number provided by secretary Master Programme Energy and Environmental Sciences, University of Groningen 1 Name student (first name last name) EES-year-number provided by secretary Leendert Roelof Haaksman Report: EES-2020-448 Supervised by: Drs. C.M.Ree (IREES) Dr. R.M.J. Benders (IREES) MSc H.J. Prins (GrEK) University of Groningen Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, ESRIG Nijenborgh 6 9747 AG Groningen T: 050 - 363 4760 W: www.rug.nl/research/esrig 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 5 samenvatting ........................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Problem statement and goals ................................................................................................. 7 1.2 Research Aim ........................................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Research question ................................................................................................................... 8 1.4 Structure of the report ............................................................................................................ 8 2. Methods and model requierments ................................................................................................. 9 3. Model characteristics .................................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Overall characteristics ........................................................................................................... 12 3.2 Local knowledge and parameters ......................................................................................... 14 4. Model analysis ............................................................................................................................... 15 4.1 Model characteristics ............................................................................................................ 15 4.1.1 Vesta MAIS .................................................................................................................... 15 4.1.2 Hoom dossier ................................................................................................................. 16 4.1.3 ESDL ............................................................................................................................... 16 4.1.4 PICO/GEODAN ............................................................................................................... 17 4.1.5 Heat models................................................................................................................... 17 4.1.6 Electrictricity models ..................................................................................................... 17 4.1.7 Advanced planning models ........................................................................................... 17 4.1.8 No economic or policy aspects ...................................................................................... 18 4.2 Participation parameters ....................................................................................................... 18 4.2.1 Vesta MAIS .................................................................................................................... 18 4.2.2 Hoom Dossier ................................................................................................................ 19 4.2.3 ESDL ............................................................................................................................... 20 4.2.4 PICO/GEODAN ............................................................................................................... 21 4.2.5 Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 22 5. Model data .................................................................................................................................... 23 5.1 Baseline-measure .................................................................................................................. 24 5.2 Energy label steps .................................................................................................................. 25 5.3 Collective ............................................................................................................................... 26 5.3.1 Heat district ................................................................................................................... 26 5.3.2 Biogas ............................................................................................................................ 27 5.4 Individual ............................................................................................................................... 27 5.4.1 Solar ............................................................................................................................... 28 3 5.4.2 Wind .............................................................................................................................. 29 5.5 Emissions ............................................................................................................................... 29 6. Model results / Case study ............................................................................................................ 30 6.1 Baseline-measure .................................................................................................................. 30 6.1.1 Emission base ................................................................................................................ 31 6.2 Energy label steps .................................................................................................................. 31 6.2.1 Energy demands ............................................................................................................ 32 6.2.2 Emissions ....................................................................................................................... 32 6.2.3 Economic ....................................................................................................................... 32 6.3 Heat districts.......................................................................................................................... 33 6.3.1 Energy demands ............................................................................................................ 33 6.3.2 Emissions ....................................................................................................................... 33 6.3.3 Economic ....................................................................................................................... 33 6.4 Biogas .................................................................................................................................... 33 6.4.1 Energy demands ............................................................................................................ 33 6.4.2 Emissions ....................................................................................................................... 33 6.4.3 Economic ....................................................................................................................... 34 6.5 Heat pumps ........................................................................................................................... 34 6.5.1 Energy demands ............................................................................................................ 34 6.5.2 Emissions ....................................................................................................................... 34 6.5.3 Economic (Solar) ............................................................................................................ 35 6.5.4 Economic (Wind) ........................................................................................................... 36 6.6 Veelerveen Advice ................................................................................................................. 38 7. Model comparison ........................................................................................................................ 40 8. Discussion ...................................................................................................................................... 40 9. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 41 References ............................................................................................................................................