Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018 Cultivation and Production NOVEMBER 2018 MCN/NSD Research Narcotics Survey Directorate Page intentionally left blank Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018 Contents CONTENTS .................................................................................................................................................. 2 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................................... 4 KEY FINDINGS .......................................................................................................................................... 5 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................13 2 OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION ......................................................................................14 2.1 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION TRENDS .................... 14 2.2 PROVINCIAL BREAKDOWN ................................................................................................ 21 3 ERADICATION......................................................................................................................35 3.1 POPPY ERADICATION DECREASED BY 46% IN 2018 ................................................... 35 3.2 QUALITY CONTROL OF REPORTED ERADICATION WITH SATELLITE IMAGES 37 4 POTENTIAL OPIUM YIELD AND PRODUCTION ...................................................40 4.1 POTENTIAL OPIUM YIELD AND PRODUCTION DECREASED IN 2018 .................... 40 4.2 POTENTIAL HEROIN PRODUCTION IN AFGHANISTAN.............................................. 42 5 OPIUM PRICES AND FARM-GATE VALUE OF OPIUM.......................................43 5.1 OPIUM PRICES......................................................................................................................... 43 5.2 FARM-GATE VALUE OF OPIUM PRODUCTION ............................................................. 47 6 METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................48 6.1 ESTIMATION OF AREA UNDER OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION ................................ 48 6.2 SATELLITE IMAGE INTERPRETATION ............................................................................ 54 6.3 VERIFICATION OF GOVERNOR-LED ERADICATION (GLE)....................................... 58 6.4 OPIUM YIELD AND PRODUCTION .................................................................................... 59 6.5 AVERAGE FARM-GATE PRICE AND FARM-GATE VALUE OF OPIUM PRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 60 ANNEX I INDICATIVE DISTRICT LEVEL ESTIMATES OF OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION, 2005-2018 (HECTARES) .......................................................................................61 ANNEX II ERADICATION FIGURES, BY DISTRICT (2018) ...................................................69 2 Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018 List of Figures Figure 1 Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, 1994-2018 (Hectares) ........................................14 Figure 2 Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, by region 2017-2018 (Hectares).......................15 Figure 3 Number of provinces by opium poppy cultivation trends, 2006-2018 ................................16 Figure 4 Cumulative precipitation in the Northern region, 2017 and 2018 ......................................17 Figure 5 Drought affected area comparing 2017 and 2018 satellite images (false colour images).18 Figure 6 Opium poppy cultivation in the Central region (by district), 2018.....................................22 Figure 7 Opium poppy cultivation in Nangarhar province, 1994-2018 (Hectares) ..........................23 Figure 8 Opium poppy cultivation in the Eastern region (by district), 2018.....................................25 Figure 9 Opium poppy cultivation in the Northern region (by district), 2018..................................27 Figure 10 Opium poppy cultivation in Badakhshan province, 1994-2018 (Hectares) .....................28 Figure 11 Opium poppy cultivation in the North-eastern region (by district), 2018 .......................28 Figure 12 Opium poppy cultivation in Day-Kundi and Zabul provinces, 2002-2018 ......................29 Figure 13 Hilmand Food Zone, 2011........................................................................................................31 Figure 14 Opium poppy cultivation in Hilmand, Kandahar and Uruzgan provinces, 2004-2018 (Hectares) ............................................................................................................................................32 Figure 15 Opium poppy cultivation in the Southern region (by district), 2018 ................................32 Figure 16 Opium poppy cultivation in Farah and Nimroz provinces, 2004-2018 (Hectares).........34 Figure 17 Opium poppy cultivation in the Western region (by district), 2018 .................................34 Figure 18 Area of opium poppy eradication, per month, 2017- 2018 (Percentage of total) ............37 Figure 19 Percentage of poppy eradication in each field in Badakhshan province, by number of fields, 2018...........................................................................................................................................38 Figure 20 Quality check of partially eradicated fields using satellite imagery in Badakhshan province in 2018 .................................................................................................................................39 Figure 21 Area and check of eradicated fields using satellite imagery in Kandahar province in 2018 ......................................................................................................................................................39 Figure 22 Potential opium production in Afghanistan, 1994-2018 (mt).............................................42 Figure 23 Farm-gate prices of dry opium at harvest time weighted by production and annual opium production, 1999-2018 (tons; US dollars per kilogram) ..................................................44 Figure 24 Dry opium prices collected from traders in Nangarhar and Kandahar provinces (US$/Kg), March 1997 - July 2018 ..................................................................................................46 Figure 25 Farm-gate value of opium production in Afghanistan, 2008-2018 (Million US dollars)47 Figure 26 Spectral reflectance of opium poppy and other crops.........................................................55 Figure 27 Image classification methodology for estimating opium poppy cultivation area............55 Figure 28 Use of geo-referenced ground photos for image interpretation.........................................57 3 Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018 List of Tables Table 1 Regional distribution of opium poppy cultivation, 2017-2018 (Hectares) ...........................15 Table 2 Main opium-poppy-cultivating provinces in Afghanistan, 2013-2018 (Hectares)..............17 Table 3 Opium poppy cultivation (2013-2018) and eradication (2017-2018) in Afghanistan (Hectares) ............................................................................................................................................19 Table 4 Opium poppy cultivation and eradication in the Central region, 2014-2018 (Hectares) ..21 Table 5 Opium poppy cultivation and eradication in the Eastern region, 2013-2018 (Hectares) ..23 Table 6 Opium poppy cultivation in Laghman, Kunar, Nuristan and Kapisa provinces, 1994- 2018 (Hectares)...................................................................................................................................24 Table 7 Opium poppy cultivation and eradication in the Northern region, 2014-2018 (Hectares)26 Table 8 Opium poppy cultivation in the Northern region, 2004-2018 (Hectares) ............................26 Table 9 Opium poppy cultivation and eradication in the North-eastern region, 2014-2018 (Hectares) ............................................................................................................................................27 Table 10 Opium poppy cultivation and eradication in the Southern region, 2015-2018 (Hectares) ...............................................................................................................................................................29 Table 11 Poppy cultivation inside and outside the former Hilmand “Food Zone” (after eradication), 2013-2018 .....................................................................................................................30 Table 12 Opium poppy cultivation and eradication in the Western region, 2015-2018 (Hectares) ...............................................................................................................................................................33 Table 13 Reported and verified governor-led eradication, by province, 2018 ..................................35 Table 14 Verified governor-led eradication, by province, 2017 - 2018...............................................36 Table 15 Opium poppy eradication and cultivation in Afghanistan, 2013-2018 (Hectares) ...........36 Table 16 Start and end dates of Governor-led eradication,