June 2021 Poll Prepared by Counsel Public Affairs Inc . METHODOLOGY We surveyed 3,175 people between June 1st and June 4th 2021. We used the Lucid Exchange Platform, which blends a variety of partner panels. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.7% nineteen times out of twenty. Results are sub-regionally weighted for: • Age and birth sex according to the 2016 Census. • 2019 Federal Vote. In BC, outside of the Lower Mainland, the NDP have significant strength. Urban Alberta is seeing an increase in intention for Liberals and NDP. Manitoba is a 3-way race. 100% 7.9% 9% 7% 10% 9% 7% 16% 13% 90% 6.9% 8% 20% 2% 5% 10% 12% 2% 4% 80% 7.7% 17% 6% 24% 21% 26% 70% 18% 17.9% 28% 13% 33% 60% 50% 26% 27.6% 54% 33% 44% 40% 28% 46% 50% 30% 31% 20% 31.9% 36% 26% 29% 10% 17% 20% 18% 15% 12% 0% Canada BC Lower Mainland Rest of BC Alberta Calgary and Rural Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Edmonton Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Liberals currently hold a 14-point lead in the bedroom communities surrounding Toronto. Conservative and NDP vote is very efficient across Ontario. 100% 7.9% 7% 6% 7% 10% 9% 6% 90% 6.9% 8% 5% 11% 8% 7.7% 80% 20% 17% 19% 17% 70% 17.9% 21% 60% 24% 29% 50% 28% 29% 27.6% 29% 40% 30% 44% 43% 20% 38% 37% 31.9% 29% 10% 0% Canada Ontario Toronto GTHA SW Ontario NE Ontario Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Outside of Montreal, Bloc Quebecois remains the dominant party. 100% 3% 7.9% 4% 5% 4% 8% 6% 5% 6% 7% 90% 6.9% 11% 80% 7.7% 20% 33% 31% 70% 19% 17.9% 48% 13% 60% 7% 10% 11% 50% 24% 27.6% 14% 40% 10% 25% 30% 7% 47% 20% 37% 31.9% 34% 27% 27% 10% 0% Canada Quebec Montreal Rive-Sud / Rive-Nord Eastern Quebec Atlantic Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Liberal support consistent among gender and age categories. Conservatives skew males and older. NDP skews younger and female. BQ support comes predominantly from older individuals. 100% 5% 7.9% 7% 8% 9% 7% 14% 5% 90% 6.9% 6% 7% 8% 10% 6% 5% 13% 80% 7.7% 6% 5% 12% 2% 17% 70% 13% 17.9% 12% 22% 18% 29% 60% 50% 32% 29% 27.6% 25% 35% 24% 40% 17% 30% 20% 31.9% 32% 32% 33% 32% 35% 27% 10% 0% Canada M 18-34 M 35-54 M 55+ F 18-34 F 35-54 F 55+ Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Liberals perform better with visible minorities, Conservative intention is higher among non-unionized individuals, NDP down five points among private-sector unions compared to non-unionized. 100% 7.9% 7% 7% 10% 13% 9% 90% 7% 6.9% 7% 6% 7% 10% 8% 2% 80% 7.7% 8% 9% 8% 19% 70% 18% 17.9% 18% 22% 13% 60% 22% 50% 27.6% 29% 25% 29% 40% 22% 30% 20% 41% 31.9% 32% 32% 32% 29% 10% 0% Canada Public-sector union Private-sector union Not unionized Visible Minority Non-Visible Minority member member Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party GROWING THE PARTIES ● Every party has three groups of voters they need to consider. ○ Core – Voters who intend to vote for their party and voted for them in the previous election. ○ Soft – Voters who intend to vote for their party but voted for a different party in the previous election. ○ Swing – Voters who do not intend to vote for the party currently but show an openness to switching their vote to that party. ■ Swing voters are the most politically coveted for any party, as they are the most likely to switch and grow the party. Of the three parties main parties, the NDP have by far the most room to grow. 100% 90% 80% 56% 70% 63% 60% 60% 50% 40% 16% 30% 13% 24% 9% 20% 6% 7% 10% 19% 18% 9% 0% Liberal Party Conservative Party New Democratic Party Core Soft Swing Unlikely For the Liberals, growth is easiest in BC outside of the Lower Mainland, Manitoba, and North Eastern Ontario. South Western Ontario, Saskatchewan and Rural Alberta are their hardest areas to grow. 100% 90% 80% 48% 53% 70% 63% 62% 74% 60% 83% 50% 40% 20% 22% 30% 13% 25% 12% 20% 12% 9% 11% 7% 10% 4% 20% 8% 14% 16% 6% 9% 6% 5% 0% Rest of BC Manitoba NE Ontario SW Ontario Saskatchewan Rural Alberta Core Soft Swing Unlikely Conservatives are most likely to grow in South Western Ontario, Lower Mainland BC and seat-rich GTHA. All three regions of Quebec remain a challenge for growth. 100% 90% 80% 57% 70% 62% 61% 69% 60% 86% 84% 50% 40% 18% 30% 15% 14% 9% 5% 20% 7% 7% 7% 6% 10% 20% 8% 16% 17% 15% 2% 5% 5% 0% 4% SW Ontario Lower Mainland GTHA Eastern Quebec Rive-Sud / Rive-Nord Montreal Core Soft Swing Unlikely For the NDP, the GTHA, Toronto and Manitoba are the areas they are most likely to grow. Despite leading them to official opposition status in 2011, Quebec represents the region where the NDP has the least potential to grow. 100% 90% 80% 47% 52% 50% 70% 71% 78% 60% 84% 50% 40% 31% 33% 30% 34% 20% 18% 12% 8% 13% 10% 10% 7% 6% 11% 5% 1% 7% 10% 6% 0% 4% 5% GTHA Toronto Manitoba Montreal Rive-Sud / Rive-Nord Eastern Quebec Core Soft Swing Unlikely When looking at each party’s swing voters through age and sex, Canadians younger than 35 represent the largest potential gain for all. 100% 90% 80% 49% 49% 46% 55% 56% 70% 59% 59% 58% 57% 57% 60% 63% 61% 65% 70% 69% 66% 68% 60% 50% 40% 22% 22% 29% 16% 18% 11% 12% 12% 18% 30% 12% 5% 9% 27% 21% 7% 7% 11% 23% 11% 9% 12% 24% 20% 6% 10% 15% 5% 21% 10% 6% 13% 9% 23% 22% 27% 6% 8% 7% 10% 18% 20% 19% 17% 17% 20% 4% 5% 13% 14% 12% 9% 9% 9% 7% 10% 7% 0% LPC LPC LPC LPC LPC LPC CPC CPC CPC CPC CPC CPC NDP NDP NDP NDP NDP NDP M 18-34 M 35-54 M 55+ F 18-34 F 35-54 F 55+ M 18-34 M 35-54 M 55+ F 18-34 F 35-54 F 55+ M 18-34 M 35-54 M 55+ F 18-34 F 35-54 F 55+ Core Soft Swing Unlikely Canadians are split on election timing. Liberals and NDP are less likely to want an election before 2022 than Conservatives. Q: Thinking about the Federal Government in Ottawa, which of the following best represents your thoughts on the upcoming election? 100% 8% 18% 18% 90% 23% 20% 23% 35% 80% 26% 70% 32% 34% 37% 60% 33% 36% 31% 50% 35% 40% 28% 24% 31% 30% 29% 25% 20% 19% 35% 20% 23% 10% 15% 17% 16% 10% 0% All Responses LPC Core LPC Swing CPC Core CPC Swing NDP Core NDP Swing An election should be called as soon as possible. An election should be called in the Fall. An election should be called sometime next year. An election should be called sometime in 2023..