THE PAST: A COMPASS FOR FUTURE EARTH 2nd YOUNG SCIENTISTS MEETING Goa, India — 11 - 12 February 2013 Contents: Meeting program......................................................................................................................................4 Welcome on behalf of the LOC................................................................................................................4 Welcome on behalf of PAGES..................................................................................................................5 Sponsors...................................................................................................................................................6 Organizers.................................................................................................................................................7 Meeting Program......................................................................................................................................8 Senior Speakers......................................................................................................................................13 General Information................................................................................................................................14 Sessions: YSM01. Climate Forcings................................................................................................................................16 YSM02. Regional Climate Dynamics..............................................................................................................20 YSM03. Global Earth-System Dynamics.......................................................................................................36 YSM04. Human-Climate-Ecosystem Interactions.........................................................................................42 YSM05. Chronology........................................................................................................................................46 YSM06. Proxy Development, Calibration and Validation....................................................................................48 YSM07. Modeling...........................................................................................................................................58 Presenting Author Index........................................................................................................................62 Meeting Program Overview....................................................................................................Back Cover Information PAGES 2nd Young Scientists Meeting 2013 Welcome on behalf of the local organizers Welcome to PAGES Goa 2013! The National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research, an autonomous research centre under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (Government of India) warmly welcomes the young palaeo researchers to Goa. India is endowed with unique geomorphologic systems like the Himalayas, desert, large and small rivers, lakes of all dimensions in various climatic domains (ranging from humid to hyper arid) and surrounded by the distinctive Indian Ocean. These settings along with substantive historical and pre-historic records make India an ideal laboratory to test hypotheses relating to human-climate-environment interaction and better inform the future planning strategies. The changing climate and its visible strain on ecological and environ- mental systems in this part of the world necessitate an integrated approach in understanding the past, pres- ent and future of the monsoon systems and their global interactions. We sincerely hope that the 2nd Young Scientist Meeting and the 4th PAGES Open Science Meeting, happen- ing for the first time in Indian subcontinent, would provide ample opportunities for scientist networking and developing new research collaborations. I wish to place on record the generous funding we have received from the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, which helped us to support large number of young scientists, internationally. I am confident that Goa with its magnificent beaches, rich cultural heritage, delectable cuisine and wonder- ful people will provide an ideal locale for a relaxed yet scientifically intense workshop. I look forward to an excellent meeting that would enhance the scientific knowhow on global change and would lead to tangible scientific outputs. I wish you a fruitful meeting and a pleasant stay in Goa! S. Rajan Chairman, Local Organizing Committee 4 PAGES 2nd Young Scientists Meeting 2013 Information Welcome on behalf of PAGES Welcome to PAGES 2nd Young Scientists Meeting! PAGES serves the Global Change community by supporting science aimed at understanding the Earth’s past climate and environment, with the ultimate goal of assisting future projections. Having become a mature sci- entific organization, PAGES had grown to recognize the need to nurture our young scientists to ensure that research on past, present, and future global change continues to thrive and evolve. The YSM is intended to provide you with a platform for interdisciplinary scientific exchange and discussion of your research. It should also provide you with tips and ideas, which we hope will be helpful in the future. You have the chance to provide feedback on the infrastructure of the scientific world, such as organizations like PAGES, publishers, data centers, etc., and hence to actively shape a part of your scientific environment. Finally, we hope that you will make new or strengthen existing contacts with fellow scientists across geo- graphical and scientific borders, and establish ties that last a whole career. The 1st YSM four years ago in Corvallis, USA was a definitive success, based on the positive feedback, rich output, continued engagement of participants, and emulation of the concept by sister organizations. Accord- ingly, this year’s program is again based on the successful concept outlined above. However, some aspects have evolved since the 1st YSM. A major innovation is that (still) young attendees of the 1st YSM are now forming an essential part of the program committee (page 7) and thus shaped actively the program of this 2nd YSM. This has extended the involvement of early-career scientists now to all stages of the meeting. Involvement and engagement is what we hope to get also from you - not only now, but also in the mid term and throughout your hopefully thriving careers. We hope that the YSM will inspire you to engage in interna- tional collaboration, community service and international science coordination, be it through PAGES or other Global Change organizations. Several of the organizations most relevant to you, such as APN, START, IGBP, IAS and others are co-spon- soring this meeting (page 6). We would like to take this opportunity to sincerely thank them for their gener- ous support, which allows us to assemble this truly international group of early-career scientists here in Goa. Most of all we thank our hosts from the National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research for setting us up for meeting here at this wonderful place. We wish everyone a productive and inspiring meeting! Thorsten Kiefer and Lucien von Gunten PAGES Executive Director and Science Officer Hubertus Fischer and Alan Mix PAGES Co-Chairs 5 Information PAGES 2nd Young Scientists Meeting 2013 YSM Sponsors Main Sponsors: MoES, Ministry of Earth Sciences, India www.dod.nic.in NCAOR, National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research, Goa, India www.ncaor.gov.in NSF, National Science Foundation, USA www.nsf.gov SNSF, Swiss National Science Foundation, Switzerland www.snf.ch Other Sponsors: APN, Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research www.apn-gcr.org START, System for Analysis, Research and Training www.start.org IGBP, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Brazil Regional Office www.inpe.br/igbp/ NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA www.noaa.gov NIOT, National Institute of Ocean Technology, India www.niot.res.in INCOIS, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, India www.incois.gov.in IITM, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India www.tropmet.res.in OCCR, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland www.oeschger.unibe.ch IAS, International Association of Sedimentologists www.sedimentologists.org 6 PAGES 2nd Young Scientists Meeting 2013 Information YSM Committees and Organizers SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM COMMITTEE Thorsten Kiefer, PAGES IPO, Switzerland (chair) Fatima Abrantes, INETI, Portugal (PAGES SSC member) Caroline Cleroux, NIOZ, Netherlands (participant 1st YSM) Ines Hessler, MARUM, University of Bremen, Germany (participant 1st YSM) Rahul Mohan, National Centre for Antarctic & Ocean Research, India (LOC member) Steven J Phipps, University of New South Wales, Australia (participant 1st YSM) Alberto Reyes, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA (participant 1st YSM) Chris Turney, University of New South Wales, Australia (PAGES SSC member) LOCAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE Rasik Ravindra, National Centre for Antarctic & Ocean Research (Patron) S. Rajan, National Centre for Antarctic & Ocean Research (Chair) R. Krishnan, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune Rajiv Nigam, National Institute of Oceanography, Goa V. Purnachandra Rao, National Institute of Oceanography, Goa Prabir G. Dastidar, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi Rahul Mohan, National Centre for Antarctic & Ocean Research Thamban Meloth, National Centre for Antarctic & Ocean Research (Convenor)