This document is confidential & “Commercial-in-Confidence” Final Report - Confidential 14 September 2018 Building the future trade potential of the Wide Bay Burnett This report has been collaboratively funded by Bundaberg Regional Council, Wide Bay Burnett Regional Organisation of Councils and Gladstone Ports Corporation Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd ACN 149 633 116 Level 23 Riverside Centre 123 Eagle St Brisbane QLD 4000 Australia Phone: +61 7 3308 7000 www.deloitteaccesseconomics.com.au Ben Artup Bundaberg Regional Council 14 September 2018 Dear Ben Basis of our work RE: Building the future trade potential of the Wide Bay Burnett: Final report We have based this work on our economic research and analysis of publically In accordance with our work dated March 2018, this final report provides the findings of available data, relevant studies, and information provided by the Bundaberg economic analysis of the future trade potential of Wide Bay Burnett region with a focus on Regional Council as well as our own economic analysis. key growth sectors and infrastructure implications in the region (“the project”). The report has been developed in extensive consultation with the Bundaberg Regional Council and also To the extent that these key information and data change, the results of the received input from the Wide Bay Burnett Regional Organisation of Councils (WBBROC) and economic analysis and impact assessment are likely to change. Gladstone Ports Corporation. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of current and future opportunities in the region and new industries that could emerge over the For all enquiries on this report please contact Steve Kanowski. Steve’s contact longer-term. It also considers the types of infrastructure investment needed in the region to details are [email protected] or 0477 727 754. improve regional connectivity and support growth in trade and production. Lastly, economic scenarios have been modelled to highlight the economic potential of the region and the Yours sincerely impacts on output and jobs under a number of potential future growth scenarios. Restrictions on report use Steve Kanowski Deloitte disclaims all liability to any party other than the Bundaberg Regional Council for all costs, loss, damage, and liability that the third party may suffer or incur arising from or Partner relating to or in any way connected with the provision of deliverables to a third party Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd without our written consent. You have agreed that you will not amend the report or distribute the report to outside parties without prior written approval from Deloitte. If others choose to rely on the report in any way they do so entirely at their own risk. Also, the information provided by those we consulted with should be treated as confidential and not be disclosed to any third parties. 1 Table of contents Executive summary 3 1. Projected growth in trades through the Port of Bundaberg 16 2. Industries that will shape the future of the Wide Bay Burnett 20 • Agriculture, forestry and fishing and related processing • Mining and minerals • Defence related industrial and manufacturing • Transport and logistics • Marine servicing • Tourism 3. Infrastructure required to unleash the trade potential of the Wide Bay Burnett 37 4. The economic impacts of trade and export expansion and infrastructure and capital investment 40 Conclusion 45 Appendices 47 2 Executive Summary 3 Did you know? Economic Facts about the Wide Bay Burnett Region Wide Bay Burnett is a region of real economic potential The region has unique comparative advantages Other key strengths of the Wide Bay Mining North Burnett minerals region Agriculture province - mining The region is taking advantage of key opportunities in bauxite, Road & Rail Burnett ilmenite and apatite. 1,900 persons growth opportunities in fruit and nuts. Wide Bay is employed in the The region has home to the Value of Fruit & Nut production of road freight significant economic Maryborough largest rail Wide Bay region – 28% of QLD transport $404M - mining manufacturing potential production industry – a opportunities hub in major regional The Wide Bay Burnett region is in coal. Queensland 50% employer. an integral economic hub to Avocados Wide ABS Census 2016 the Queensland economy, Bay South Burnett - 75% 28% strategically situated to the Macadamias - mining Growing Export Facilities 100% opportunities in north of the densely populated Other Mandarins coal. The Port of Bundaberg South East Queensland region, Suppliers and to the south of the key 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Exports to 6 International industrial hub, Gladstone. The % of Total QLD Production Markets region is home to a unique and Growth of key fruit & nut commodities - 2010-2017 The Wide Bay Burnett region has enormous mining diverse mix of agriculture potential with a number of known mining deposits production, minerals resource Total Agriculture Total Agriculture Total Agriculture and potential projects. Exploiting these opportunities endowments, world heritage Mandarins Avocados Macadamias could result in increases in trade out of the region by $73M to $250M per annum. listed tourist attractions, and an abundance of natural resources. Potential incremental increases in trade average p.a. 2018-35: Bauxite Coal Ilmenite Total The region has a storied history, from the infamous 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016 $73M Medium: $31M - $42M ‘Gympie Gold Rush’ in 1867, to Sugar is still an important commodity and High: $37M $156M $57M $250M Denmark being known as the home of strength of the region. iconic Australian companies such as, Bundaberg Brewed Drinks, Increase in land holdings for sugar Tourism Hyne Timber and the global production in 2016-17 – resulting in a Fraser Coast and Bundaberg have the fastest 30% producer, Nestle’ in Gympie. 20% increase in production (value). growing tourism industries in Queensland based on GVA growth - 2016-17. Wide Bay Burnett produces 12% of GPC 2018 The future of Wide Bay Burnett Australia’s total sugar cane 18% 20% looks just as bright, with the 16% Home to National Icons production and is the third 15% region well placed to take 12% 14% largest sugar producing region 12% 10% World Heritage Listed Tourist advantage of rising incomes in in Australia.* 10% Attractions – such as Fraser Island Asian countries and demand for 5% 8% its mineral resources. If the 6% 0% The region is also home to right investments in 4% iconic companies such as -5% Other Strengths of the Agriculture Sector 2% Bundaberg Brewed Drinks infrastructure are made in a 0% -10% and Hyne Timber. Global timely manner, the Wide Bay Vegetables Livestock giant, Nestle’ opened a Burnett region could increase its factory in Gympie in 1953 trade potential substantially, Wide Bay Burnett accounts $440M in livestock originally for diary powder resulting in higher output, for 17% of Queensland’s produced in the Direct share of GRP (LHS) and is now a primary supplier greater employment and real vegetable production. region. Queensland share of GSP (LHS) of coffee to Australia and growth in incomes. GVA growth 2016-2017 (RHS) New Zealand via the Nescafe’ *Comparison of SA4 regions. ABS 2017 TRA 2017 brand. Sustainable long-term growth Wide Bay Burnett can position itself for the future by….embracing global trends The Wide Bay Burnett region has many strengths that can enable it to take advantage of growing opportunities in the region and globally. It also has the potential to create an economy that has inter-generational sustainability by capitalising on some of the global megatrends. Digital Immersion Planetary Pushback More with Less Global concerns are growing about the environment Australia is one of the most urbanised nations in the and the impact that production has on pollution world; over 89% of the population resides in coastal 2 and erosion of the environment. Further, climate towns and cities . Population growth is expected to change may well change production processes through exacerbate the effects of urbanisation, with national decreasing the availability of water and productivity of population expected to reach approximately 31 million 3 agriculture land. by 2030 . Wide Bay Burnett will experience population An increasing global population is expected to put growth in the coastal cities as well as in towns across strain on farming systems with food demand Researchers believe that agriculture commodities that the region4. projected to increase by 60% by 20602. will be hardest hit by rising temperatures will be products such as avocados, grapes, and tree fruits and With more people living in coastal cities in Wide Bay The region has an opportunity to capitalise on nuts, largely due to increases in dry seasons and Burnett greater investments in infrastructure will technology advancements in agriculture to decreases in winter chills. Some of these commodities be required. This will cater for increased demand and ensure that it can increase crop utilities. Targeted are currently important sources of income for the Wide the new infrastructure needed to export goods including investments in new technology will enable the region Bay Burnett economy 1,2. agriculture and minerals to global markets and increase to take advantage of opportunities in agriculture, connectivity for residents, tourists and to interstate food technologies and services to agriculture to grow markets. its global exports/market share. Australia ranks 35th in Transport Infrastructure Competitiveness