Unemployment Bulletin Issue 147 October 2020 Notes on Claimant Count (Experimental Statistics) from ONS: These Claimant Count Experimental Statistics relate to 8 October 2020. Enhancements to Universal Credit as part of the UK government's response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) mean that an increasing number of people became eligible for unemployment-related benefit support, although still employed. Consequently changes in the Claimant Count will not be wholly because of changes in the number of people who are unemployed. We are not able to identify to what extent people who are employed or unemployed have affected the numbers. Contents The Claimant Count is a measure of the number of people who are unemployed and claiming benefits. From 1996 until the recent introduction Part 1: Summary 1 of Universal Credit, this was based on the number of people claiming A summary of unemployment Jobseeker’s Allowance. However, since its introduction some unemployment data at district, County, benefit claimants will be claiming Universal Credit instead. To reflect this regional and national level change, the Claimant Count has been expanded to include people claiming Part 2: County 3 Jobseeker's Allowance plus those who claim Universal Credit and who are Unemployment figures for the searching for work. County compared to the South West and the rest of Gloucestershire is in the process of transitioning to full Universal Credit. This the UK means a broader span of claimants will be required to look for work than Part 3: Districts 4 previously under Jobseekers Allowance. As more people are brought within A comparative break down of the coverage of Universal Credit, the Claimant Count is set to rise noticeably unemployment figures by over time. This will happen irrespective of how the economy performs and is district a feature of the design of Universal Credit which brings additional groups of Part 4: Wards people into ‘Searching for Work’ conditionality (and therefore the Claimant Further breakdown of Count), to help encourage and support these claimants into work. unemployment figures by ward: For more information about Universal Credit please see the ONS website. Cheltenham 6 Cotswolds 8 INTRODUCTION Forest of Dean 10 The Unemployment Bulletin provides a monthly update on Gloucester 12 unemployment data for Gloucestershire, the South West region and the United Kingdom. It is produced by the Data & Analysis Team in the Stroud 14 County Council’s Planning, Performance and Change function. The Tewkesbury 16 data are sourced from the Office for National Statistics via Nomis Part 5: Map 18 (www.nomis.co.uk). All data are rounded to the nearest 5 and may not Distribution of claimant rate precisely add to the sum of the number of people claiming JSA, and across Gloucestershire the number of people claiming Universal Credit required to seek work, Part 6: Youth Unemployment 20 due to independent rounding. Unemployment data for the 18-24 year old age group PART 1: SUMMARY Part 7: Young People 21 Data about Young People Not The claimant rate in Gloucestershire was 4.7% in October 2020. The in Education, Employment or South West rate decreased to 5.0% and the UK rate decreased to Training (NEET) 6.3%. Gloucestershire’s rate was 0.3% lower than the South West average of 5.0%, and 1.6% lower than the UK average of 6.3%. Produced by: The claimant count in Gloucestershire in October 2020 decreased by Data & Analysis Team 715 people. The amount of people claiming in October 2020 was Planning, Performance and Change Gloucestershire County Council 3.8% lower than the number in September 2020. This compares to a November 2020 4.1% decrease in the South West and a 1.6% decrease in the UK. Unemployment Bulletin Page 2 DISTRICTS AT A GLANCE At a glance unemployment information grouped by district. Includes: Claim count: Total number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance and Universal Credit who are not in work in October 2020 Compared to last month: How much larger/smaller October’s claimant count is compared to September expressed as a % Claimant rate: The % of working age population claiming Job Seekers Allowance and Universal Credit who are not in work in October 2020 Highest claiming ward: The ward with the highest claim count in that district and the rate CHELTENHAM BOROUGH GLOUCESTER CITY Claimant count: 3,730 Claimant count: 4,925 Claimant count change on -2.1% Claimant count change on -1.5% previous month: previous month: Claimant rate: 5.1% Claimant rate: 6.1% Highest claiming ward Hesters Way (8.0%) Highest claiming wards Barton and Tredworth (11.6%) COTSWOLD DISTRICT STROUD DISTRICT Claimant count: 1,935 Claimant count: 2,740 Claimant count change on -8.3% Claimant count change on -7.1% previous month: previous month: Claimant rate: 3.7% Claimant rate: 3.8% Highest claiming ward Watermoor (6.8%) Highest claiming wards Slade (7.8%) FOREST OF DEAN TEWKESBURY BOROUGH Claimant count: 2,370 Claimant count: 2,190 Claimant count change on -2.9% Claimant count change on -4.6% previous month: previous month: Claimant rate: 4.6% Claimant rate: 3.9% Highest claiming ward Lydney East (8.3%) Highest claiming ward Tewkesbury Prior’s Park (5.5%) Unemployment Bulletin Page 3 PART 2: UK, SW AND GLOUCESTERSHIRE INDICATORS The unemployment situation in Gloucestershire compared to the South West and the UK. Claimant Rate Figure 1: Claimant Rate for Gloucestershire, the South West and UK over the past year 7.0 United Kingdom 6.0 South West Gloucestershire 5.0 4.0 Rate (%) Rate 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Figure 1 shows the claimant rate for Gloucestershire at 4.7% in October 2020. The Gloucestershire rate has been lower than the South West average since December 2015, with the exception of April and May 2016 when it was the same. On average, it has been approximately 1.2% lower than the UK average since the same month of the previous year. Claimant Count Table 1: Analysis of UK, South West and Gloucestershire Claimant Counts Area Claimant Count % change on Consecutive in October 2020 September 2020 months increasing UK 2,612,550 -1.6% 0 South West 168,090 -4.1% 0 Gloucestershire 17,890 -3.8% 0 Table 1 shows that in October 2020, the number of claimants in Gloucestershire was 3.8% lower than the number in September 2020. Unemployment Bulletin Page 4 PART 3: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT ANALYSIS Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 2: Claimant Rate (%) across Gloucestershire - October 2020 7.0 6.0 Gloucestershire 4.7% 5.0 4.0 % 3.0 6.1 5.1 4.6 2.0 3.7 3.8 3.9 1.0 0.0 Figure 2 shows the claimant rate for October 2020 in Gloucestershire. Between September 2020 and October 2020 the rate decreased in all districts except Gloucester which remained the same. Unemployment Bulletin Page 5 Table 2: Analysis of Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Oct 20 Oct 20 Sep 20 Sep 20 Monthly % monthly Monthly Total Number Rate Number Rate change change change of rate Gloucestershire 17,890 4.7 18,605 4.8 -715 -3.8% -0.1 Cheltenham 3,730 5.1 3,810 5.2 -80 -2.1% -0.1 Cotswold 1,935 3.7 2,110 4.1 -175 -8.3% -0.4 Forest of Dean 2,370 4.6 2,440 4.8 -70 -2.9% -0.2 Gloucester 4,925 6.1 5,000 6.1 -75 -1.5% 0.0 Stroud 2,740 3.8 2,950 4.1 -210 -7.1% -0.3 Tewkesbury 2,190 3.9 2,295 4.1 -105 -4.6% -0.2 Table 2 shows the change in the claimant count in October 2020 compared to September 2020. All districts saw a decrease in the number of claimants. Table 3: Analysis of Male Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Oct 20 Oct 20 Sep 20 Sep 20 Monthly % monthly Monthly Male Number Rate Number Rate change change change of rate Gloucestershire 10,420 5.5 10,930 5.7 -510 -4.7% -0.2 Cheltenham 2,200 6.0 2,270 6.2 -70 -3.1% -0.2 Cotswold 1,065 4.2 1,160 4.6 -95 -8.2% -0.4 Forest of Dean 1,370 5.4 1,410 5.6 -40 -2.8% -0.2 Gloucester 3,005 7.4 3,090 7.6 -85 -2.8% -0.2 Stroud 1,555 4.4 1,675 4.7 -120 -7.2% -0.3 Tewkesbury 1,225 4.5 1,325 4.8 -100 -7.5% -0.3 Table 3 shows the change in the male claimant count in October 2020 compared to September 2020. All districts saw a decrease in the number of male claimants. Table 4: Analysis of Female Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Oct 20 Oct 20 Sep 20 Sep 20 Monthly % monthly Monthly Female Number Rate Number Rate change change change of rate Gloucestershire 7,470 3.9 7,680 4.0 -210 -2.7% -0.1 Cheltenham 1,530 4.2 1,540 4.3 -10 -0.6% -0.1 Cotswold 870 3.3 950 3.6 -80 -8.4% -0.3 Forest of Dean 1,005 3.9 1,030 4.0 -25 -2.4% -0.1 Gloucester 1,915 4.7 1,910 4.7 5 0.3% 0.0 Stroud 1,185 3.3 1,275 3.6 -90 -7.1% -0.3 Tewkesbury 965 3.4 970 3.4 -5 -0.5% 0.0 Table 4 shows the change in the female claimant count in October 2020 compared to September 2020.