Focused Question Artificial Intelligence Opportunities and Conditions for European Land Forces AN EXPERTISE FORUM CONTRIBUTING TO EUROPEAN CONTRIBUTING TO FORUM AN EXPERTISE SINCE 1953 ARMIES INTEROPERABILITY European Army Interoperability Center This text was drawn up with the help of Mrs. Laurane Chédaleux, member of the Finabel research team, under the supervision and guidance of the Head of the Permanent Secretariat. This focused question is a document that gives an initial reflection on the theme. The content is not reflecting the positions of the member states, but consists of elements that can initiate and feed the discussions and analyses in the domain of the theme. It was drafted by the Permanent Secretariat and is supported by the organisation. LIST OF ACRONYMS AND TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS Introduction 3 AI Artificial Intelligence BATX Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent et Xiaomi A wide field of possible CCP Chinese Communist Party applications for AI DTIB Defence Technological and within land forces 4 Industrial Base EU European Union - AI implementation out of GAFAM Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, the battlefield 5 Microsoft - AI implementation on ICT Information and Communication the battlefield 7 Technology IO International Organisation A large set of conditions requested IOT Internet of Things for AI implementation 7 LAWS Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems - Technical issues 8 NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation - Human resources issues 9 NBIC Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, - Ethical issues 11 Information technology and - A need for regulation 13 Cognitive sciences NGO Non-governmental organisation An undeniable need for cooperation NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty through Europe and the world 14 OODA Observe, Orient, Decide, Act PESCO Permanent Structured Cooperation - Cooperation between States 14 UK United Kingdom - Cooperation between private UN United Nations and public sector 18 US United States of America USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Conclusion 19 WWII World War II References 19 Artificial Intelligence 2 On the first of September 2017, Vladimir software perform perception, reasoning, Putin – President of the Russian Federation – knowledge representation, planning, com- stated, “Artificial intelligence is the future, munication or autonomy in order to achieve not only for Russia, but for all humankind”. specific goals. If Machine Learning appears as “It comes with colossal opportunities, but also the most advanced and usable AI approach, threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever be- it is mostly given its high media coverage and comes the leader in this sphere will become the its functioning. To summarize, a program can ruler of the world”1. The Artificial intelligence become intelligent in two ways. is indeed no longer a science-fiction perspec- tive, but an on-going revolution for societies, On a formal way, the program is coded and industries and eventually armies. any computer scientist can check down the parameters and way of “reasoning” of the ma- From 1770 to 1850 were developed steam chine. AI systems are then based on automa- engine as well as railway lines and thus, from tion, to make a system process automatically. 1870 to 1910 were born aviation, automo- As an example, on machine vision, the pro- bile, electricity and telephony. The twentieth gram will make a system captures and analy- century has been the century of the develop- ses visual information using a camera, process ment and the individualisation of these new an analogy-to-digital conversion and give an technologies in the new mass consumption outcome. societies. The European armies has been deeply transformed by these technologies. A Another mechanism is to feed the system with third revolution is currently occurring, since data. As we “show” it multiple examples, it the 1990s with NBIC technologies and the then automatically identifies the features and new world most valuable resource: data. Just learns “by association”. Deep Learning shows as the previous ones, this technological and up as a technique of Machine Learning, using economic revolution is going to disrupt our a neural network directly inspired by the hu- world and the ways we live, work, and ulti- man brain functioning. mately make war. Given the growing amount of data worldwide As a result of exponential progress in Nano- companies like the American GAFAM or the technology, Biotechnology, Information tech- Chinese BATX are collecting everyday as well nology and Cognitive sciences, scientists have as the enhancement of the storage capabili- been able to move forward an old scientific ties3 and the improvement of computer pro- dream: AI. This must be considered as a “con- cessing, AI systems based on Machine Learn- cept for improving the performance of automat- ing capabilities can be considered as exponen- ed systems for complex tasks”2. As a result, the tial. Indeed, the more these systems are fed system is adapting itself to a situation and re- by data, the more efficient and precise they acts autonomously – independently from hu- become. Given the NBIC technology im- man operators –. From this concept, system provements these past decades, whether AI is designers have developed several approach- going to happen is not a question. It is only a es – that include Machine Learning – to make matter of time. Data are in this century what 1 The editorial board, Putin: Leader in artificial intelligence will rule world, CNBC news website, 4th September 2017, available on https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/04/putin-leader-in-artificial-intelligence-will-rule-world.html 2 Stoney Trent and Scott Lathrop, A primer on Artificial Intelligence for Military Leaders… 3 Moors law – it is going to stop Artificial Intelligence 3 oil was to the last one: a driver of growth and applications of AI within armies, the debates change. Then, the debates should focus on the remain focused on the LAWs question. These following questions: how do we want AI to so-called “autonomous weapons” or “kill- be implemented? To what end? Under whose er-robot”, which have been described as the responsibility and according which rules? If third revolution in warfare, after gunpowder Transhumanism perspectives appear exces- and nuclear arms, are the main catalyst of fear sive, technophobia is just its negative twin. from AI implementation into defence sector. However, if this issue legitimately rises up, it Everyone has in mind a Hollywood’s image of should not restrict the debate of AI imple- AI, in particular due to the success of movies mentation within the European armies. An like Her, A space Odyssey or Matrix. None- assessment of the opportunities of AI imple- theless, such representations of IA are mostly mentation within land forces must be drafted fantasies, reductive, and obviously not in line (I) and technical, ethical and legal issues (II) with the projects and current applications of have to be solved through cooperation (III) to this new technology in our societies. In 2017, allow European armies to safely but promptly AI technologies have become a major topic enter this new technological age. following the defeat of a Go world champi- on against the intelligent program Alpha Go. This was proving that AI was “more intelli- A WIDE FIELD OF POSSIBLE gent” than the human playing at that par- APPLICATIONS FOR AI WITHIN ticular game.4 If this is an impressive move, LAND FORCES talking about intelligence remain tricky as this program took part in a game with limited outcomes and is not able to do anything else. General Schwarzkopf, commander-in-chief General intelligence, which can be considered of the allied coalition during the Gulf War, as “possessing common sense and an effective was the first beneficiary of the technological ability to learn, reason and plan to meet com- growth at the end of the twentieth century. plex information or processing challenges across He explained that technology has allowed a wide range of natural and abstract domains”5, him to gain omniscience on the battlefield might be the future of AI. However, for the and to dissipate Clausewitz's "fog of war". years to come, AI applications will remain Since that time, the technological progress narrowed intelligence systems, solving precise has gone on. Today, multiple sensors on a sol- issues they are programmed for better that dier’s equipment inform the commandment the human brain, but excluding any broader in real time on its environment and drones understanding. The private sector – especially are allowing intelligence to get information business, communication or financial compa- without sending any soldier. But at the time nies – has already started to implement kinds of hybrid war and guerrilla, omniscience ap- of AI to gain efficiency and make economies. pears as a utopia. The development of AI, temporarily with robotisation, might enhance The European Land forces have no choices prospective abilities and allow Land forces to but to follow the progress or to face an un- better overcome their opponents out (A) and avoidable demotion. Among all the possible on the battlefield (B). 4 Website of Deepmind, “Discover more about AlphaGo”, https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/, accessed on the 23rd September 2018 5 Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence – Paths, Dangers, Strategies, 2014, Oxford, Oxford University Press, p. 3 Artificial Intelligence 4 AI implementation out of the become truly useful. As an example, the mul- battlefield tiple legal documents accompanying external operations are often complex and sometimes According to the French General Barrera, tricky. Legal advisors are always trying to find innovation makes sense only if it helps “to the breach in them. For instance, Westerners maintain the operational superiority of our forc- have more or less diverted the UN mandate es, to make our organizations more agile, sim- during the Libyan conflict. With intelligent plify our operating methods, especially in daily tools, legal officers might gain efficiency. work”6. Here is the good news: AI can truly be an asset for the Armies on a daily basis, Thus, in the prospect of the increasing level especially out of the battlefield.