Special Evaluation Study ADB’s Response to Natural Disasters and Disaster Risks Independent Evaluation Special Evaluation Study October 2012 ADB’s Response to Natural Disasters and Disaster Risks Reference Number: SES:REG 2012-12 Independent Evaluation: SS-117 NOTE In this report, “$” refers to US dollars. Director General V. Thomas, Independent Evaluation Department (IED) Director W. Kolkma, Independent Evaluation Division 1, IED Team leader T. Ueda, Principal Evaluation Specialist, IED Team members A. Brubaker, Evaluation Specialist, IED J. Foerster, Evaluation Specialist, IED E. Kwon, Principal Evaluation Specialist, IED L. Ocenar, Evaluation Officer, IED S. Labayen, Associate Evaluation Analyst, IED The guidelines formally adopted by the Independent Evaluation Department on avoiding conflict of interest in its independent evaluations were observed in the preparation of this report. To the knowledge of the management of Independent Evaluation Department, there were no conflicts of interest of the persons preparing, reviewing, or approving this report. In preparing any evaluation report, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Independent Evaluation Department does not intend to make any judgment as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Abbreviations ADB – Asian Development Bank ADF – Asian Development Fund APDRF – Asia Pacific Disaster Response Fund ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations ATF – Asian Tsunami Fund BNPB – Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (National Agency for Disaster Management) BRR – Badan Rehabilitasi dan Rekonstruksi (Agency for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Aceh-Nias) CCA – climate change adaptation CCM – climate change mitigation CPP – Cyclone Preparedness Program CPS – country partnership strategy CSP – country strategy and program DEAP – Disaster and Emergency Assistance Policy DMC – developing member country DRM – disaster risk management DRR – disaster risk reduction EAL – emergency assistance loan EEAP – Earthquake Emergency Assistance Project EM-DAT – Emergency Event Database ERRA – Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority ETESP – Earthquake and Tsunami Emergency Support Project GDP – gross domestic product GFDRR – Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery HFA – Hyogo Framework for Action IDRM – integrated disaster risk management IDMC – Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre IED – Independent Evaluation Department IFAS – integrated flood analysis system IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MDF – Multi-Donor Fund MFF – multitranche financing facility NDMA – National Disaster Management Authority NDMC – National Disaster Management Commission NGO – nongovernment organization OCR – ordinary capital resources PCR – program/project completion report PPER – program/project performance evaluation report PRC – People’s Republic of China PSC – project steering committee PSOD – Private Sector Operations Department PVR – program/project completion report validation report RETA – regional technical assistance RRP – report and recommendation of the President RSDD – Regional and Sustainable Development Department SAPE – sector assistance program evaluation SES – special evaluation study TA – technical assistance UN – United Nations UNDP – United Nations Development Programme UNISDR – United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Contents Acknowledgements i Foreword iii Executive Summary v Management Response xiii Chair’s Summary: Development Effectiveness Committee xvii Chapter 1: Natural Disasters in the Asia-Pacific Region 1 A. Introduction 1 B. Identifying Disaster Risks 3 C. Objectives and Scope of the Evaluation 7 Chapter 2: ADB’s Approach to Natural Disaster Management 10 A. The Disaster Risk Cycle 10 B. The Evolution of ADB’s Disaster and Emergency Assistance Policy 12 C. Specialized Funds and Modalities for Natural Disasters 14 D. Hyogo Framework for Action 17 E. ADB Finance Requirement 18 Chapter 3: ADB Portfolio of Projects and Technical Assistance 19 A. Loans, Grants, and Technical Assistance 19 B. ADB Financing over the Years 21 C. Types of Support 25 D. Loans and Grants: Sectors and Characteristics 27 Chapter 4: Assessment of ADB Disaster Recovery Operations 31 A. ADB’s Support for Disaster Recovery Operations 31 B. Success of Disaster Recovery Operations 32 C. Country Cases 34 Chapter 5: Assessment of ADB Operations in Natural Disaster Prevention 42 and Climate Change A. ADB Focus on Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Support 42 B. ADB’s Support in Disaster Reduction 45 C. Success of Disaster Prevention Operations 47 D. Assessment of ADB’s Technical Assistance 48 E. Country Assessments 49 F. Internal Organization and Institutional Capacity 56 Chapter 6: Assessments of Policy Implementation 58 A. Assessment of ADB Disaster and Emergency Assistance Policy 58 B. Assessment of Human Resources for Disaster Management 59 C. Assessment of ADB Country Strategies 60 Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations 63 A. Relevance, Responsiveness, and Results 63 B. Lessons for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction 65 C. Lessons from Disaster Recovery Projects 65 D. Recommendations 66 APPENDIXES 1 Glossary of Terms 69 2 ADB’s Support for Natural Disasters—Projects and Technical Assistance 71 3 Issues Analysis 83 4 ADB’s Technical Assistance in Natural Disaster Prevention 100 5 Disaster Risk Management Systems of Selected Countries 109 6 Disaster Risk Reduction Activities of Development Organizations 116 SUPPLEMENTARY APPENDIXES (Available on Request) A IED and RSDD Natural Disaster Databases B Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters in Asia C Field Visits to Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Pakistan D Natural Disasters in the Country Partnership Strategies: 1995–2012 and ADB Natural Disaster-Related Support to Selected Countries Acknowledgements Under the overall guidance of the Independent Evaluation Department's (IED) Director General Vinod Thomas and Director, Division 1, Walter Kolkma, this report was prepared by a team led by Tomoo Ueda, Principal Evaluation Specialist, IED. Team members included Andrew Brubaker, Jean Foerster, Eunkyung Kwon, Lucille Ocenar and Stella Labayen. The following consultants were engaged for the study: Daniel Gunaratnam (risk profile), Christopher Nixon (post-disaster assessment—transport), Stephen Houston (disaster prevention and coordination), Silke Heuser (international evaluation), Jose Ramon Albert (econometrics/statistics), Susan Rachel Jose (senior research associate), Nastassha Arreza (evaluation associate), Lualhati Alino (evaluation associate), and in- country national consultants—M. Quassem (Bangladesh), Pratiwi Maranatha (Indonesia), and Ahmad Luqman Sarwar (Pakistan). Ganesh Rauniyar and Hyun Son peer reviewed the document from within IED. We gratefully acknowledge the comments received from external peer reviewers: Mr. Vinod Chandra Menon, former Member, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of India, and Mr. Haruo Hayashi, Professor, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University who reviewed the report, and Mr. Luc Dubreuil, Senior Evaluation Officer, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome who commented on the evaluation approach paper. We further acknowledge the comments on an earlier version of this report, as provided by relevant departments and offices of the Asian Development Bank. IED retains full responsibility for this report. Foreword Four of five cities classified as extreme risks among the world’s fastest growing urban areas are in Asia. The region accounts for half of the estimated economic cost of disasters over the past 20 years. By one estimate, floods and landslides cost the People’s Republic of China some $18 billion in 2010 alone, and Thailand an estimated $45 billion in 2011. Policymakers need to recognize that investments in disaster risk management are an essential means to sustain growth. This evaluation distinguishes between two broad categories of disaster-related operations—those in disaster prevention and those in disaster recovery. If only those projects focused predominantly on disaster prevention are taken into account, the share of disaster-related investment was one-third, compared with two-thirds spent on disaster recovery after disasters had struck. Given that $1 spent on disaster prevention can obviate the need for considerable spending later—at least $4 on disaster recovery by some measures calculated by the United Nations—ADB should consider giving greater emphasis to disaster prevention in its dialogue with clients, if not in actual lending, particularly in the many high-risk countries. Although disaster recovery projects have been much more successful than ADB- supported projects overall, many disaster recovery projects were mainly concerned with the somewhat limited objective of restoring particular types of infrastructure in the affected areas, rather than rehabilitating livelihoods, or increasing disaster resilience by building back better. On the other hand, the disaster prevention projects that ADB supported usually delivered infrastructure as planned, but were often still less likely to be sustainable in the medium and long term. Weak organizations and limited financial resources assigned to maintenance were main reasons for this. We have thought for too long that natural disasters come and go, that they are just an interruption to development, and that they can simply be dealt with after they strike. However, there is growing