1 Going Nuclear in the Middle East In search of an European Middle East policy THURSDAY 28th JANUARY Opening Session .......................................................................... 3 Gérard LARCHER, President of the French Senate ........................................................................... 3 Josselin de ROHAN, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee of the French Senate............................................................................................................................ 6 Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East ......................................................................................................................................... 8 General overview Nuclear Islam in the Middle East ................................................................. 12 Robert MALLEY, Director of Middle East and North Africa Program at the International Crisis Group (Washington DC, USA) and Former Special Assistant to President Clinton for Arab-Israeli Affairs ........................................................................................................................... 12 How likely is a successful dialogue with Iran? Panel................................................................ 23 Jean FRANCOIS-PONCET, Senator and Co-author of the Foreign Relations and Defence Committee’s report on the situation in the Middle East - ................................................................. 23 Ladan BOROUMAND - Research Director, Abdorrahman Boroumand Foundation for the Human Rights and Democracy in Iran..............................................................................................24 Anthony H. CORDESMAN, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC.................................................................................. 27 Mustafa ALANI, Senior Advisor Director, Gulf Research Center, Dubai – Good afternoon, Ladies and Gentlemen....................................................................................................................... 32 Bernard HOURCADE, Senior Research Fellow at CNRS (Paris).................................................... 36 What Future for the Palestinian People? Panel ......................................................................... 44 Monique CERISIER-ben GUIGA, French Senator, Co-author of the Foreign Relations, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's Report on the Situation in the Middle East...................... 44 Muzna SHIHABI - Member of the Palestinian Negotiation Team, Representing Saeb Erekat, Chief Palestinian Negotiator ............................................................................................................. 45 Mike SINGH, Ira Weiner Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy – ....................... 50 Henry SIEGMAN, Director of the U.S./Middle East Project and Former Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations............................................................................................................ 55 Yves AUBIN de la MESSUZIÈRE, Former Director, North Africa/Middle East at the French Foreign Office, Former French Ambassador, President of La Mission laïque française (the French Lay Mission) ......................................................................................................................... 57 Friday 29 January 2010 A Renaissance for Iraq? Panel .......................................................... 63 Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East – .................................................................................................................................... 63 Boris BOILLON, French Ambassador to Iraq .................................................................................. 63 Fareed YASSEEN, Ambassador, Government of Iraq ..................................................................... 70 Masroor BARZANI, Head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party's (KDP) security and intelligence agencies ......................................................................................................................... 73 2 The Latest on Al Qaeda? Panel.................................................................................................... 83 Monique CERISIER-ben GUIGA, Senator, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East............................................. 83 Alain CHOUET, Former Chief of the Security Intelligence Service, French Foreign Intelligence Service........................................................................................................................... 83 Jean-Pierre FILIU, Professor, Middle East Chair at Sciences Po Paris, Visiting Professor at Georgetown University ..................................................................................................................... 88 François HEISBOURG - Special Advisor at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique in Paris................................................................................................................................................... 93 In search of a European Union Policy for the Middle East Panel .......................................... 102 Jean François-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East.................................................................................................................................................. 102 Jean-Dominique GIULIANI, Chairman of the Robert Schuman Foundation................................. 102 Dr Muriel ASSEBURG, Head of the Middle East and Africa Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs ...............................................................................107 Dr Claire SPENCER, Head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House... 110 In search of a European policy for the Middle-East Closing .................................................. 123 Javier SOLANA, Former High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of the Council of the European Union............................................................... 123 Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East ..................................................................................................................................... 127 3 THURSDAY 28th JANUARY Opening Session Gérard LARCHER, President of the French Senate – Mr Chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defence and Armed Forces Committee, dear Josselin de Rohan, Mr President of the Robert Schuman Foundation, dear Jean-Dominique Giuliani, ladies and gentlemen Ministers, ladies and gentlemen Ambassadors, dear colleagues Senators, Ladies and Gentleman, I am delighted to be here this afternoon to open these two days of discussion where we will be looking at the Middle East here in the French Senate. The Middle East today is quite clearly one of the global hotspots of the world. It is also a big challenge for the international community. I am delighted that the Senate has led a major initiative in this sense over the last few months, initiated by Mr de Rohan. I would also like to congratulate those who are behind this seminar: our Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee and the Robert Schuman Foundation. I would also like to express my undivided admiration for our two colleagues who have produced the Committee’s report that is the origin of this meeting: Mr Jean François-Poncet and Mrs Monique Cerisier-ben Guiga. They spent a year working on this, which involved visiting 17 countries. Often very tiring and difficult trips were made. They went to Gaza in January 2009, 10 days after the end of Israel’s Operation “Cast Lead”. They also went to Baghdad. The result of those visits and studies produced an outstanding report last September. I would like to pay a special tribute to the authors because they reflect the quality of the Senate reports and the work done by your Committee, Mr Chairman. Just like the parable of the talents, I am sure we will be able to multiply that input during these two days. I would also like to congratulate a Senate professional staffer who assisted the two Senators along their mission : Mr Frederic Mauro. I smiled when I read the first sentence of your report, which was « If you have understood something about the Middle East, it is probably because you have had the wrong explanations. » You refuse the excuse of the complexity of the Middle East situation – on which there is no doubt – which leads some people to stage unnecessarily 4 complex explanations, due to nuances and false subtleties. Yours is not such a case. Your report is clear and precise about many aspects of the political situation. It puts everything in perspective, explains the links and connections, and explains, in simple terms, things that are fundamentally complex. Complexity does not