Equity Research March 8, 2021 INDIA BSE Sensex: 50405 ICICI Securities Limited Media – BARC rating is the author and distributor of this report Zee TV viewership share in primetime GEC dips BARC has released its viewership data for week-8 of CY21 (20-26th Feb). Zee TV’s Media viewership share in Hindi GEC primetime has declined 100bps QoQ to 17.2% in Q4FY21-TD despite completion of KBC-12. The decline is due to weakening Kumkum Bhagya Kundali viewership share in its two most popular shows and Bhagya, which is disappointing. Zee TV however has seen rise in viewership Sector update share in Telugu and Kannada all-day GEC. Star Plus continues to see remarkable success in its new shows, which has helped it grab higher share in Hindi GEC primetime. Though Sun TV has seen 130bps QoQ rise in viewership share in Zee Entertainment Tamil GEC primetime to 37.3%, it is far from its pre-Covid share. (ADD) Target price: Rs278 Hindi primetime GEC – Zee TV viewership share dips. Zee TV’s Hindi GEC 700 primetime viewership share in Q4FY21-TD stands at 17.2% (vs 18.2% in Q3FY21). 600 Its top two shows Kumkum Bhagya and Kundali Bhagya witnessed continued 500 erosion of viewership share – and this was despite completion of KBC-12. Star Plus 400 continues to register strong viewership share gain at 28.2% in Q4FY21-TD (up (Rs) 300 200 290bps QoQ). Some of Star Plus’ new shows have seen remarkable success, e.g. 100 Ghum Hai Kisikey Pyar Mein (20:00-20:30hrs); Imlie (20:30-21:00hrs); and 0 Anupama (22:00-22:30hrs). Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Tamil primetime GEC – Sun TV’s viewership share sees some rise, but nowhere near pre-Covid. Sun TV’s impressions in Tamil GEC primetime in Sun TV (HOLD) Q4FY21-TD has dipped 11% YoY. Its viewership share during the period is 37.3% Target price: Rs542 (up 130bps QoQ, yet down 10.4pps YoY), and for week-8 it was just 36.1%. This is 1050 despite Sun TV’s efforts to refresh shows (it has launched six new shows since 950 850 Nov’20 and is planning to introduce some big-ticket shows in four southern 750 650 languages). We will wait to see if Sun TV can gain significant viewership share (Rs) 550 resulting from these shows. 450 350 250 Star Vijay’s viewership share is 34.3% for Q4FY21-TD (up 900bps YoY), and it was 150 35.5% in week-8. Zee Tamil viewership share has shrunk 100bps QoQ to 22.4% in Q4FY21-TD. Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Telugu and Kannada all-day GEC – Zee viewership rises in Telugu. 1) Zee Telugu viewership share in Telugu all-day GEC has grown to 29.3% in Q4FY21-TD (up 485bps YoY). This has come at a cost to Gemini TV (Sun TV), which has seen its viewership share dip to 15.8% (down 500bps YoY). 2) Zee Kannada viewership share has improved to 36.3% in Q4FY21-TD, up 220bps QoQ; but is still down 245bps YoY. Star Suvarna’s viewership share rose 310bps YoY to 22.8% in Q4FY21-TD. Zee struggle in Marathi and Bangla GEC continues. 1) Zee Marathi’s viewership Research Analysts: share in Marathi all-day GEC continues to dip – and stands at 31.5% for Q4FY21- TD (down 10.9pps YoY, 380bps QoQ), and 32.9% in week-8. Star Pravah continues Sanjesh Jain to gain viewership at 42.4% for Q4FY21-TD (21.65pps), and was 40.3% in week-8. [email protected] +91 22 6637 7153 Colors Marathi lost viewership share by 880bps YoY to 15.5%; 2) Zee Bangla Sameer Pardikar viewership share in Bangla all-day GEC is down 510bps YoY to 42.0% in Q4FY21- [email protected] +91 22 2277 7637 TD, and 41.7% in week-8. Star Jalsha viewership share is 45.3% in Q4FY21-TD, up 720bps YoY. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Media sector, March 8, 2021 ICICI Securities Hindi GEC (Market: HSM Urban, Target: Universe) Table 1: Hindi GEC primetime impressions Mn impressions wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* &TV 42 43 41 44 42 45 41 58 43 43 37 43 Zee TV 170 181 180 172 177 164 158 167 34 136 177 173 Star Plus 265 266 274 284 302 292 306 195 182 196 249 284 Life Ok / Star Bharat 36 38 37 37 34 30 33 79 37 51 32 36 Colors 220 222 205 219 224 216 167 210 96 162 208 212 Sony SAB 129 129 120 112 119 121 120 140 64 115 123 123 Sony PAL 42 46 43 46 49 47 41 34 29 54 43 44 Sony TV 112 117 79 83 81 84 79 95 70 76 114 94 Total 1,016 1,043 980 998 1,028 998 946 978 554 832 982 1,007 Source: BARC, I-Sec research; Note: 1) *Quarter to date; and 2) primetime is from 18:00-24.00hrs Table 2: Hindi GEC primetime viewership share % wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* &TV 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.5 4.3 5.9 7.8 5.1 3.7 4.2 Zee TV 16.7 17.4 18.3 17.3 17.2 16.4 16.7 17.1 6.1 16.4 18.0 17.2 Star Plus 26.1 25.5 27.9 28.5 29.3 29.2 32.4 19.9 32.8 23.5 25.4 28.2 Life Ok / Star Bharat 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.0 3.5 8.1 6.7 6.1 3.2 3.5 Colors 21.6 21.3 20.9 22.0 21.8 21.7 17.7 21.5 17.3 19.4 21.1 21.0 Sony SAB 12.7 12.3 12.3 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.7 14.3 11.6 13.8 12.5 12.2 Sony PAL 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.3 3.5 5.2 6.5 4.3 4.4 Sony TV 11.0 11.2 8.1 8.3 7.8 8.4 8.4 9.7 12.6 9.1 11.7 9.3 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: BARC, I-Sec research; Note: 1) *Quarter to date; and 2) primetime is from 18:00-24.00hrs Table 3: Hindi GEC all-day viewership share % wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* &TV 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 5.1 6.8 4.8 3.9 4.3 Zee TV 13.7 13.7 14.2 13.7 13.8 13.4 13.3 13.0 7.1 11.9 13.9 13.7 Star Plus 24.0 23.4 24.6 24.1 24.6 24.5 25.7 17.3 23.1 25.2 24.5 24.5 Life Ok / Star Bharat 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 7.8 7.0 6.7 4.6 4.9 Colors 18.7 18.7 18.3 19.0 19.9 19.2 17.6 18.9 13.2 14.6 17.7 18.7 Sony SAB 16.1 16.4 15.9 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 19.8 23.9 17.8 16.4 15.8 Sony PAL 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 3.2 4.6 7.3 5.9 5.4 Sony TV 13.5 13.4 12.7 13.0 11.5 12.2 12.4 14.8 14.4 11.7 13.1 12.7 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: BARC, I-Sec research; Note: *Quarter to date Tamil GEC (Market: Tamil Nadu Urban, Target: Universe) Table 4: Tamil GEC primetime impressions Mn impressions wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* Sun TV 196 145 145 143 140 150 143 171 134 130 153 152 Sun Life 10 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 8 9 8 7 Star Vijay 134 132 130 132 147 142 140 91 54 93 151 140 Z Tamil 91 99 96 90 85 84 86 82 44 99 99 91 Colors Tamil 18 18 17 18 16 17 21 11 8 13 15 18 Total 450 400 396 389 394 398 395 359 248 344 427 409 Source: BARC, I-Sec research; Note: 1) *Quarter to date; and 2) primetime is from 18:00-24.00hrs Table 5: Tamil GEC primetime viewership share % wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* Sun TV 43.6 36.2 36.7 36.8 35.5 37.6 36.1 47.6 54.1 37.8 35.9 37.3 Sun Life 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 3.1 2.6 2.0 1.6 Star Vijay 29.8 32.9 32.8 33.9 37.3 35.5 35.5 25.3 21.6 27.0 35.3 34.3 Z Tamil 20.3 24.7 24.4 23.1 21.5 21.1 21.9 22.9 17.7 28.7 23.3 22.4 Colors Tamil 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.7 4.1 4.2 5.2 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.6 4.4 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: BARC, I-Sec research; Note: 1) *Quarter to date; and 2) primetime is from 18:00-24.00hrs 2 Media sector, March 8, 2021 ICICI Securities Table 6: Tamil GEC all-day viewership share % wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* Sun TV 43.3 40.7 41.8 40.3 38.9 39.8 39.5 49.4 53.0 45.9 40.6 40.5 Sun Life 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.4 5.2 4.9 4.2 4.0 Star Vijay 29.7 31.7 30.1 31.9 34.5 33.6 33.5 25.2 21.6 24.1 31.3 32.3 Z Tamil 19.7 20.1 20.7 20.3 19.2 18.7 18.8 18.6 15.8 21.2 20.8 19.7 Colors Tamil 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.2 3.4 4.4 3.9 3.2 3.6 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: BARC, I-Sec research; Note: *Quarter to date Telugu GEC (Market: Andhra Pradesh / Telangana Urban, Target: Universe) Table 7: Telugu GEC primetime impressions Mn impressions wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* Eenadu TV 74 75 74 75 78 76 73 69 71 81 75 75 Gemini TV 40 31 31 29 28 27 25 47 35 28 29 30 Star Maa 106 119 116 114 117 122 118 115 60 121 138 116 Zee Telugu 98 113 114 111 111 108 106 74 37 103 96 108 Total 318 338 335 329 333 333 322 304 203 333 339 330 Source: BARC, I-Sec research; Note: 1) *Quarter to date; and 2) primetime is from 18:00-24.00hrs Table 8: Telugu GEC primetime viewership share % wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* Eenadu TV 23.2 22.3 22.1 22.9 23.4 22.8 22.6 22.6 35.3 24.3 22.2 22.8 Gemini TV 12.7 9.0 9.2 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.8 15.4 17.2 8.3 8.7 9.2 Star Maa 33.3 35.3 34.6 34.6 35.2 36.8 36.8 37.9 29.4 36.2 40.8 35.2 Zee Telugu 30.8 33.4 34.0 33.8 33.2 32.3 32.9 24.2 18.2 31.1 28.4 32.8 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: BARC, I-Sec research; Note: 1) *Quarter to date; and 2) primetime is from 18:00-24.00hrs Table 9: Telugu GEC all-day viewership share % wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* Eenadu TV 23.2 21.0 21.2 21.1 21.1 22.1 21.4 21.6 25.2 22.9 21.6 21.6 Gemini TV 17.0 16.6 15.0 15.6 15.6 14.4 15.2 20.8 24.4 17.2 15.1 15.8 Star Maa 30.9 32.1 32.9 33.5 35.3 34.6 34.6 33.2 30.3 32.5 36.8 33.3 Zee Telugu 28.9 30.3 30.9 29.7 28.0 28.8 28.8 24.5 20.1 27.4 26.5 29.3 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: BARC, I-Sec research; Note: *Quarter to date Kannada GEC (Market: Karnataka Urban, Target: Universe) Table 10: Kannada GEC primetime impressions Mn impressions wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7 wk8 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21* Star Suvarna 52 52 49 49 46 45 44 46 31 56 50 49 Udaya TV 29 30 25 27 28 26 25 34 28 25 25 27 Zee Kannada 77 79 77 78 75 73 74 89 48 78 66