South China Sea Intelligence Briefngs Weekly Briefing: October 4th Welcome to the South China Sea Briefing for the week of the 4 October. At The Open Source Briefing, we remain committed to providing the public with ongoing developments around the globe. U.S. Navy Image Courtesy of USNI Fleet Tracker Last week was without a briefing as we were adding to our staff, reworking our format, and reshaping the briefing to give you the best news on the South China Sea. Since we weren’t here last week, the following is an update on the previous week’s goings-on for context and hyperlinked for context. President Rodrigo Duterte invokes the 2016 Hague ruling on their claims in the SCS at the UN on Wednesday the 23rd. ​ ​ Taiwanese Defense Ministry revised its rules of engagement that it reserved the right to act in self-defense if attacked by mainland Chinese forces. The Taiwanese Defense ​ ​ Ministry also announced that, in September, 37 individual incursions by Chinese air force into the Taiwanese ADIZ were registered during the visit of US Undersecretary of ​ State Keith Krach. The Chinese Military conducted anti-mine drills in response to the ​ Taiwanese buildup of forces on September 21st. Lastly, Taiwan fired test missiles, ​ ​ believed to be home-grown Tien Kung-2 surface to Air missiles, from its eastern and southern coasts as part of a 2-day program in response to the Chinese air incursions. ​ ​ The Open Source Briefing 1 ​ It seems that every week of this briefing provides evidence of “rising tensions.” Over the last few months, it has accurately been a continued stoking of the fires of tension. Keeping the tension burning with acts of freedom of navigation operations by the United States, rebukes by the Chinese government against US involvement in Taiwan, and the ever-present actions and calls for talks by the South China Sea and East China Sea dispute claimants. On 2 October, the USS America Expeditionary Strike Group completed its logistics support and maintenance trip to Guam. With the group departing Guam, it will be able to continue to assist the United States Navy in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.1 On Thursday, 24 September, a fire occurred onboard USS Antietam’s engineering space and caused minor injuries to 13 sailors. Stars and Stripes reports that this was the “second fire reported aboard a U.S vessel in the Western Pacific since last week”.2 This incident shouldn’t be of major concern as the ship is reported to be still operational as it took part in an air power demonstration earlier this week in the Philippine Sea. The Navy has announced that a new bilateral exercise between the U.S Navy and Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force will be starting on 26 October. The training will consist of the U.S Marines and Japan Ground Self Defense Force (JGDSF) practicing amphibious landings on a string of smaller islands off of mainland Japan.3 This is not the first amphibious assault exercise we have seen this year, and we expect it to not be the last. Concern that grew from China’s territory focused push at the onset of the Coronavirus Pandemic has had Asia’s key powers edging their armed forces towards a state of readiness. 1 David Larter, Aaron Mehta. “The Pentagon Is Eyeing a 500-Ship Navy, Documents Reveal.” Yahoo! News, Yahoo!, 28 Sept. 2020, news.yahoo.com 2 CAITLIN DOORNBOS | STARS AND STRIPES Published: September 28, 2020. “Small Fire, Quickly Extinguished, Injures 13 Aboard Japan-Based Navy Cruiser.” Stars and Stripes, 28 Sept. 2020, www.stripes.com 3 Japan Self-Defense Forces and U.S. Armed Forces to Conduct Exercise Keen Sword 2020.” Navy Recognition, 30 Sept. 2020, www.navyrecognition.com The Open Source Briefing 2 ​ On 29 September, the U.S Navy carrier out what was referred to as a “Show of Air Power of the Philippine Sea in what is suggested to be a message of deterrence after Chinese military aircraft violated Taiwanese airspace on nearly 40 occasions.4 Japan From 26 to 28 September, the JMSDF (JMSDF) and Indian Navy conducted their 4th India-Japan maritime exercise in the North Arabian Sea. Times of India reports that JIMEX-20 has become increasingly complex in its operational training. Types of training indicate “Multi-faceted tactical exercises involving weapon firings, cross deck helicopter operations and complex surface, anti-submarine and air warfare drills will consolidate coordination developed by the two navies.”5 Courtesy of the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force Twitter With the early retirement of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Yoshida Suda takes the mantle as he is planning overseas visits to key South China Sea players Vietnam and Indonesia. This diplomatic visit attempts to continue strengthening of allies to counter China's growing regional hegemony.6 4 Venhuizen, Harm. “Navy Conducts Show of Air Power in the Indo-Pacific, Another Message to China.” Navy Times, Navy Times, 30 Sept. 2020, www.navytimes.com 5 Indian Navy Conducts Naval Exercise JIMEX 20 with Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force.” Navy Recognition, 27 Sept. 2020, www.navyrecognition.com 6 Writer, Staff. “Suga to Take up Abe's Indo-Pacific Mantle with ASEAN Tour.” Nikkei Asia, Nikkei Asia, 30 Sept. 2020, asia.nikkei.com The Open Source Briefing 3 ​ Photo courtesy of JapanForward The week began with the US State Department releasing a document stating that “While the Chinese people have suffered the worst environmental impacts of its actions, Beijing also threatens the global economy and global health by unsustainably exploiting natural resources and exporting its willful disregard for the environment.”7 This claim was followed by further denouncing of Chinese continued militarization of its claims in the Paracel Islands and the rest of the SCS. Beijing responded that the United States leaving the Paris Agreement, and its continued “freedom of navigation operations” made it the biggest threat to peace and stability in the SCS. 7 Associated Press. (2020, September 28). China fires back at US over environment, South China Sea. Retrieved October 02, 2020, from https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/china-fires-back-us-environment-south-china-sea-73287890 The Open Source Briefing 4 ​ Amid the accusations on both sides, the PLA had been holding military exercises from the 27th-28th in the Paracels. Two no-go zones were announced by the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration for these drills, and a knowledgeable source states it was a live-fire exercise.8 Accompanying these exercises are four Chengdu J-10 fighters stationed on Woody Island. This is the third time this year that China has executed military exercises in the Paracel Islands this year. The first two drills were June 18th and July 1st of 2020. These round of drills was particularly intriguing because of China’s 4 other military exercises across parts of its cost. It is the second time in two months it will have concurrent drills, after rarely conducting multiple exercises at the same time. Two of these drills were in the SCS, one in the East China Sea, and one each in the Yellow and Bohai Seas.9 Continued on Next Page 8 Huang, K. (2020, September 28). China holds drills near disputed Paracels for a third time this year. Retrieved October 02, 2020, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3103393/south-china-sea-chinese-military-holds-drills-n ear-paracel 9 Reuters Staff. (2020, September 28). China holds simultaneous military drills in four seas, again. Retrieved October 02, 2020, from https://in.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence/china-holds-simultaneous-military-drills-in-four-seas-again-i dUSKBN26J1KW The Open Source Briefing 5 ​ Chinese Military Technology China has launched a new maritime patrol carrier called the Haixun09. It is designed to hold several helicopters at a length of 165 meters and has a range of 10,000 nautical miles at 16 knots, and employ voyages of more than 90 days.10 Several analysts of the SCMP article have noted that this ship is an unofficial statement of Beijing’s ability to exert power through its civilian fleet. This is known as “Grey zone” tactics, “coercive actions below a threshold that could typically produce a conventional military response.”11 It is believed that it isn’t inconceivable that these types of ships could be forward deployed in the SCS region. 10 Huang, K. (2020, September 30). China launches largest maritime patrol ship amid rising regional tensions. Retrieved October 02, 2020, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3103690/china-launches-largest-maritime-patrol-ship-a mid-rising 11 Ibid The Open Source Briefing 6 ​ Weekly List of Flights September 21: A USAF RC-135W operated in the SCS but was miscoded.12 It could be trying to operate under a fake Malaysian or Philippine hex code. September 22: A USAF RC-135S was spotted in the East China Sea with a spoofed hex code of Philippine nationality, which was changed back after the mission was completed.13 September 24: A USN P-8A landed in the Philippines after its incursion into the SCS.14 A PLAAF KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft was circling over the SCS within proximity of the Taiwan Strait.15 September 25: A USN EP-3E and P-8A were seen patrolling over the South China Sea, with the EP-3E being charted as close as 47.81 nautical miles from Guangdong on the coast of China.16 A PLAAF KJ-500 was circling off the coast of China.17 This is a different KJ-500 from the day before.