PPCR-GEF WELL-BEING INDEX ELMARL PROJECT 2015-2017 TAJIKISTAN First draft submitted: 13th Jan. 2018 Second draft submitted: 5th Feb. 2018, 22nd Feb. 2018 Final draft submitted: 12th March. 2018 Prepared by Christine ORIOL Based on quantitative and qualitative data collected by ZERKALO ANALYTICS For the Committee for Environmental Protection of the Republic of Tajikistan 1 CONTENTS Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Glossary ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 7 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 9 1. A Well-being index to assess adaptation and coping strategies to climate change ....................... 9 1.1 Context .................................................................................................................................... 9 1.1.1 Sub-components of the ELMARL project ........................................................................ 9 1.1.2 State of the project by 31.12.2017 ................................................................................ 10 1.2 Chronological and theoretical framework for the construction of the index ....................... 10 1.2.1 Chronological steps ....................................................................................................... 10 1.2.2 Theoretical framework: The 3-D notion of well-being ................................................. 12 1.3 A rural Tajik lens on well-being: definition of well-being in ELMARL context: ..................... 13 1.3.1 Domains of well-being ................................................................................................... 13 1.3.2 A complex approach of well-being to fit into a climate change resilience framework . 14 1.3.3 Chosen indicators .......................................................................................................... 15 1.3.4 Indicators left out .......................................................................................................... 17 1.4 Method of calculation of the well-being index ..................................................................... 18 1.5 Evaluation of the increase of Well-Being in the context of ELMARL project ........................ 20 2. Concise methodology of the qualitative and quantitative surveys .............................................. 20 2.1 Methodology of the quantitative survey .............................................................................. 20 2.1.1 A panel survey based on a stratified randomized sample ............................................ 20 2.1.2 Sample composition ...................................................................................................... 22 2.1.3 Survey conduction ......................................................................................................... 24 2.1.4 Analysis of the collected data ........................................................................................ 25 2.1.5 Limits to the survey methodology ................................................................................. 27 2.2 Methodology of the qualitative survey ................................................................................. 28 2.2.1 Focus group methodology ............................................................................................. 28 2.2.2 Sample constitution ....................................................................................................... 28 2.2.3 Survey conduction: qualitative data collection ............................................................. 29 2.2.4 Analysis of the collected data ........................................................................................ 29 2.2.5 Limits to the survey ....................................................................................................... 30 3. Analysis of the surveys: evolution of well-being from 2015 to 2017 ............................................ 30 3.1 Assessment of the targeted indicator: increase of well-being: percentage of the population experiencing an increase of 20% of well-being ................................................................................. 30 2 3.1.1. Overall result of the targeted indicator............................................................................... 30 3.1.2 Detailed analysis of the targeted indicator .......................................................................... 31 3.2 Assessment of the evolution of wellbeing per domain ......................................................... 32 3.2.1 Health: towards better health conditions for the less healthy ..................................... 32 3.2.2 Money and Workplace: A ‘buzzing countryside’ at work .............................................. 35 3.2.3 Living conditions ............................................................................................................ 44 3.2.4 Food availability and nutrition improvement ............................................................... 48 3.2.5 Reinforced social cohesion and more leisure time ....................................................... 50 3.2.6 Safety ............................................................................................................................. 55 3.2.7 Subjective well-being..................................................................................................... 56 3.3 Limitations to the taken approach and survey ...................................................................... 57 4. Conclusions on the results of the surveys ..................................................................................... 58 4.1 General conclusions .............................................................................................................. 58 4.2 Domain-related conclusions .................................................................................................. 58 4.3 District related conclusions ................................................................................................... 59 4.4 Final conclusions .................................................................................................................... 59 4.5 Lessons learnt on the Well-Being index ................................................................................ 60 4.5.1 Positive aspects of a well-being index ........................................................................... 60 4.5.2 Comparison with the indicator of “Listening to Tajikistan” .......................................... 60 4.5.3 Further improvements .................................................................................................. 61 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................................ 62 Annex 1 Questionnaire for the well-being index .............................................................................. 63 Annex 2: Sample for the low and high land survey ........................................................................... 69 Annex 3 Population pyramid of Tajikistan 2016................................................................................ 72 Annex 4 List and location of focus groups- qualitative research ...................................................... 73 Annex 5 List of codes ......................................................................................................................... 74 Annex 6: List of priority domains of well-being by focus groups participants .................................. 75 Annex7 Cantril ladder measure of life satisfaction for life ................................................................ 76 Annex 8 Selected case studies........................................................................................................... 77 3 List of Figures Figure 1 Questions, methodology and outputs for index construction ................................................ 11 Figure 2 The 3-D conception of well-being ........................................................................................... 12 Figure 3 Domains of well-being by priority ranking .............................................................................. 13 Figure 4 Picture of well-being values for Tajik rural citizens ................................................................. 14 Figure 5 Summary of the Resilience Framework ................................................................................... 15 Figure 6 Domains of well-being after weighting ................................................................................... 19 Figure 7 Table of districts within the scope of the survey .................................................................... 21 Figure 8 Location of the districts in which the well-being survey has been conducted ....................... 21 Figure 9 Composition of the sample ..................................................................................................... 22 Figure 10 Details of the