ENERGY IN A FINITE WORLD Paths to a Sustainable Future ENERGY IN A FINITE WORLD Paths to a Sustainable Future Report by the Energy Systems Program Group of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Wolf Hafele, Program Leader Written by Jeanne Anderer with Alan McDonald and Nebojsa Nakicenovic BALLINGER PUBLISHING COMPANY Cambridge, Massachusetts A Subsidiary of Harper & Row, Publishers, Inc. Copyright © 1981 by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without prior written consent except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. Published simultaneously in Great Britain by Harper & Row Ltd., and in Australia and New Zealand by Harper & Row (Australasia) Pty. Limited. The views and opinions expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the Institute or of the National Member Organizations that support it. International Standard Book Number: 0-88410-641-1 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 80-200S 7 Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Energy in a finite world. Includes index. CONTENTS: v. 1. Summary and analysis.-v. 2. Technical report. 1. Power resources. 2. Energy policy. I. Hafele, Wolf. II. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Energy Systems Program Group. T]163.2.E478 333.79 80-200S7 ISBN 0-88410-641-1 (v. 1) ISBN 0-84410-642-X (v. 2) MEMBERS OF THE IIASA ENERGY SYSTEMS PROGRAM Below is a listing of the members of the Energy Systems Program, including name, nationality, period of service with the program, and, where applicable, institute of origin. Wolf Hafele (Program Leader). FRG. July 1973-present*. Nuclear Research Center, Karlsruhe, FRG. Abdelmonem A. Afifi. USA. July 1976-September 1977. School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA. Malcolm Agnew. UK. August 1976-April 1979. University of Munster, Munster, FRG. Jeanne Anderer. USA. June 1979-present*. Piero-Maria Armenante. Italy. May-December 1978. University of Rome, Rome, Italy. Alexander S. Astakhov. USSR. February-June 1978. Institute of Management of the National Economy, Moscow, USSR. Rudolph Avenhaus. FRG. July 1973-August 1975. Nuclear Research Center, Karlsruhe, FRG. Maria Bacher-Helm. Austria. September 1973-present*. Anthony Baker. UK. Intermittently. National Coal Board, Harrow Middlesex, UK. Todor Balabanov. Bulgaria. September 1977-present*. Institute for Unconventional Energy Sources, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria. Paul S. Basile. USA. June 1977-November 1979. Sloan School of Management, Massa­ chusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. ·As of 31 December 1979. v VI MEMBERS OF THE llASA ENERGY SYSTEMS PROGRAM Jean-Michel Beaujean. France. January 1976-January 1979. Institute of Technology of the University of Paris V, National Institute of Nuclear Sciences and Technology, Paris, France. Klaus Becker. FRG. August-September 1978. DIN, German Nuclear Standards Com­ mittee, Berlin, FRG. Charles Bell. USA. November 1975-January 1978. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA. Lev Belyaev. USSR. October 1975-December 1976. Siberian Power Institute, USSR Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, USSR. Anne Binkley. USA. March 1978-present*. Manfred Breitenecker. Austria. October 1976-December 1978. Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria. Beverly Broadfoot. New Zealand. Intermittently. Natalia Burova. USSR. July-December 1976. Computing Center, USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, USSR. Richard Caputo. USA. May 1979-present*. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Insti­ tute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA. Martin Cellerier. France. April 1977-December 1978. French Petroleum Institute, Reuil­ Rueil-Malmaison, France. Bernard Chaix. France. February-July 1976. French Petroleum Institute, Rueil-Malmaison, France. Verne Chant. Canada. January-December 1978. Bureau of Management Consulting, Department of Supply and Services, Ottawa, Canada. Jean-Pierre Charpentier. France. November 1973-August 1975. Commission for Atomic Energy, Paris, France. Sergei Chernavsky. USSR. September-October 1979. Working Consultative Group on Long-term Energy Forecasting, Presidium of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, USSR. Karl Cohen. USA. Intermittently. General Electric, San Jose, California, USA. Christina Derstroff. Austria. February 1976-present* . Claire Doblin. USA. January 1975-present*. Nickolai Dranishnikov. USSR. June-September 1979. Committee for Systems Analysis, USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, USSR. John T. Eddington. USA. September 1978-present*. Gulf Oil Corporation, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA. Richard Eden. UK. June-July 1974. Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Ward Edwards. USA. June 1977 and January 1978. Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA. Francois Emard-Katsonis. France. May-December 1978. National Center of Scientific and Technical Research (CNRS), Paris, France. Dieter Faude. FRG. Intermittently. Nuclear Research Center, Karlsruhe, FRG. George C. Ferrell. USA. February-August 1977. Operations Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA. Franz Fleck. FRG. December 1976-December 1978. University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, FRG. "As of 31 December 1979. MEMBERS OF THE I1ASA ENERGY SYSTEMS PROGRAM Vll Hermann Flohn. FRG. Intermittently. Institute for Meteorology, University of Bonn, Bonn, FRG. Helmut Frey. Austria. Intermittently. Barbara Gilbert. USA. June 1976-April 1977. Dominique Gourmelon. France. Intermittently. French Association for the Development of Systems Analysis (AFDAS), Paris, France. Michel Grenon. France. January 1974-December 1978. International Energy Consultant. Jacques Gros. USA. July 1974-June 1976. Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. Gabriela Grosse. FRG. September 1975-May 1979. Arnulf Gnibler. Austria. October 1976-December 1978. Technical University, Vienna, Austria. Hans-Richard Gnimm. Austria. November 1974-November 1977 and February 1978­ December 1978. Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria. Willi Hitscher. GDR. June-July 1975. Institute for Energetics, Leipzig, GDR. Gunter Hildebrandt. FRG. Intermittently. United Association of German Hard Coal Mines, Essen, FRG. Frank Hoffmann. FRG. Intermittently. United Association of German Hard Coal Mines, Essen, FRG. John P. Holdren. USA. Intermittently. Energy and Resources Program, University of California, Berkeley, USA. Alois Holz!. Austria. January 1978-present*. Technical University, Vienna, Austria. Eckhard Hopfinger. FRG. April 1977-March 1978. Institute for Economics and Opera­ tions Research, University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, FRG. Fredy Jiger. F RG. March 1976-January 1978. Institute for Nuclear Technology, Univer- sity of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, FRG. Martina J ostl-Segalla. USA. Intermittently. Gunter Kessler. FRG. Intermittently. Nuclear Research Center, Karlsruhe, FRG. Nathan Keyfitz. USA. Intermittently. Center for Population Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachuserts, USA. Arshad M. Khan. Pakistan. January 1978-present*. Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology, Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Kenneth Klitz. USA. February 1977-June 1978. IBM Corporation, Boulder, Colorado, USA. Yuri Kononov. USSR. December 1975-March 1979. Siberian Power Institute, USSR Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, USSR. Troos Koopmans. USA. February-December 1974. Wolfgang Korzen. Austria. April 1976-present*. Technical University, Vienna, Austria. Nikolai Kourochkin. USSR. October 1973-September 1974. Institute for World Economy and International Relations, USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, USSR. Janet Kovacs. USA. Intermittently. Renate Kreis!. Austria. March 1974-July 1977. Gerhard Kromer. Austria. February 1975-present*. Technical University, Vienna, Austria. Ruth Kuhn. FRG. Intermittently. Nuclear Research Center, Karlsruhe, FRG. • As of 31 December 1979. Vlll MEMBERS OF THE IIASA ENERGY SYSTEMS PROGRAM Gerald L. Kulcinski. USA. Intermittently. University of Wisconsin, Nuclear Engineering Department, Madison, Wisconsin, USA. Vivien Landauer. UK. July 1973-December 1978. Bruno Lapillonne. France. September 1975-January 1978. Institute of Energy Eco­ nomics and Law, National Center of Scientific Research (CNRS), Grenoble, France. Didier Launay. France. April 1979-present*. Institute of Energy Economics and Law, National Center of Scientific Research (CNRS), Grenoble, France. Barbara Lewis. USA. Intermittently. Mary Lindenthal. UK. April 1978-present*. Nilo Lindgren. USA. September 1979-present*. Consultant, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, USA. Joanne Linnerooth. USA. September 1974-August 1978. University of Maryland, De­ partment of Economics, College Park, Maryland, USA. Amory B. Lovins. USA. January-February 1977. Friends of the Earth, London, UK. Alexej A. Makarov. USSR. Intermittently. Siberian Power Institute, USSR Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, USSR. Alan S. Manne. USA. September 1973-June 1974. Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA. Cesare Marchetti. Italy. January 1974-present*. Retired from EURATOM, Ispra, Varese, Italy. Dagmar Maurer. Austria. February 1976-December 1978. Institute of Psychology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.