Understanding Cheltenham 2015 Produced by the Strategic Needs Analysis Team, Gloucestershire County Council Version: v1.0 1 Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 4 2. Executive summary .................................................................................................... 5 3. Cheltenham context.................................................................................................. 12 3.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 12 3.2 Demographics ....................................................................................................... 12 3.3 Deprivation ........................................................................................................... 18 3.4 Life expectancy ..................................................................................................... 26 3.5 Mortality ................................................................................................................ 27 3.6 Economy ............................................................................................................... 30 3.7 Protected characteristics ....................................................................................... 49 3.8 Key messages ...................................................................................................... 56 4. Getting the right start in life ....................................................................................... 59 4.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 59 4.2 Maternity ............................................................................................................... 59 4.3 Sexual health ........................................................................................................ 62 4.4 Maintaining a healthy weight – childhood .............................................................. 64 4.5 Education .............................................................................................................. 66 4.6 Promoting the welfare of children and Safeguarding ............................................. 83 4.7 Key messages ...................................................................................................... 87 5. Keeping healthy – prevention ................................................................................... 88 5.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 88 5.2 Alcohol .................................................................................................................. 88 5.3 Smoking ................................................................................................................ 89 5.4 Maintaining a healthy weight in adults ................................................................... 90 5.5 Social Isolation ...................................................................................................... 91 5.6 Key messages ...................................................................................................... 95 6. Particular Needs ....................................................................................................... 96 6.1 About this section ................................................................................................. 96 6.2 Disability ............................................................................................................... 96 6.3 Mental health ...................................................................................................... 109 6.4 Long-term conditions .......................................................................................... 110 6.5 Dementia ............................................................................................................ 111 6.6 Service use profile – community based care ....................................................... 114 6.7 Service use profile – residential and nursing care ............................................... 115 6.8 Place of death ..................................................................................................... 117 2 6.9 Key messages .................................................................................................... 118 7. Healthy and Sustainable Places and Communities ................................................. 120 7.1 About this section ............................................................................................... 120 7.2 Community Assets .............................................................................................. 120 7.3 Carers ................................................................................................................. 121 7.4 Volunteering........................................................................................................ 124 7.5 Culture and Leisure ............................................................................................. 125 7.6 Transport ............................................................................................................ 128 7.7 Housing .............................................................................................................. 130 7.8 Education ............................................................................................................ 147 7.9 Unemployment .................................................................................................... 147 7.10 Community Safety............................................................................................... 147 7.11 Key messages .................................................................................................... 151 3 1. Introduction Understanding Cheltenham has been produced to provide an understanding of the district and its communities. It looks at the needs of communities and how we expect them to change in the future and assesses current and future health and social care needs of the citizens of Cheltenham. The report is part of a suite of documents, which also includes; Understanding Cotswold, Understanding Forest of Dean, Understanding Gloucester, Understanding Stroud, Understanding Tewkesbury and Understanding Gloucestershire – A Joint Strategic Needs Analysis. Where possible the documents follow a similar structure to one another, although difficulties in obtaining some data at district level means Understanding Gloucestershire – A Joint Strategic Needs Analysis, features some topics that are not available in the other reports. For any feedback please contact the Strategic Needs Analysis Team: [email protected] 4 2. Executive summary Cheltenham context The population of Cheltenham was estimated to be around 116,500 in 2014, representing a rise of approximately 6,700 people since 2004, an average increase of nearly 670 people per annum. This is equivalent to an annual growth of 0.61% in the 10 years to 2014, lower than the Gloucestershire and England & Wales averages of 0.68% and 0.80% respectively. Between 2004 and 2014, the older population (aged 65 and above) in Cheltenham continued to outpace that of the younger population. However, the growth rate in the district’s older population was slower than those in Gloucestershire and England and Wales. Assuming current population trends continue, the ONS projections for the next 25 years suggest that the population in Cheltenham will reach 126,600 by 2025 and 135,300 by 2037. This represents an annual increase of 0.69% or 810 people between 2012 and 2025, and 0.58% or 730 people between 2025 and 2037. The district’s short- and medium- term growth is in line with those predicted for both Gloucestershire and England, while the long-term growth is higher than the county and national levels. The number of older people aged 65 and above in Cheltenham is projected to increase by 520 a year between 2012 and 2037 as a result of rising life expectancy and the demographic impacts of two generations of baby boomers. The 2011 Census showed that 12,940 people who were usually resident in Cheltenham were born outside the UK, representing 11.2% of the total population, compared to 7.7% for the county and 13.4% nationally. Among these, 47% (6,130 people) were recent migrants, having arrived since 2004 Ethnic groups showing the biggest growth in Cheltenham in the 10 years to 2011 were ‘White-other’ (+3,600), ‘Other Asian’ (+670), ‘Indian’ (+490) and ‘Black-African’ (+340). Cheltenham is the district in Gloucestershire that displays the most extremes in deprivation. Whilst the district contains areas that rank extremely well nationally in terms of overall deprivation, there are also areas of high deprivation. Out of the 13 LSOAs in Gloucestershire that rank in the top 10% most deprived nationally, 3 are located in Cheltenham district. Females in Cheltenham can generally expect to live between 3 and 4 years longer than their male counterparts. Life expectancy for both men and women has been steadily increasing in the district over the past decade. Over this period, life expectancy has been slightly higher for Cheltenham residents than the county average, and significantly higher than the national average. 5 Males in the least deprived Cheltenham