HUGO Assessing the economic and political environmentvision in New Zealand Confidential to January 22 2016 HUGO members 2016 – off to a wobbly start Pages 4, 5, &6 The next few months will test both the govt’s and opposition parties’ capacity to read the economic runes. Local data remain strong, even if inflation is lower than it should be, but the global economy looks suddenly far more fragile again, prompting new ‘crisis’ talk. The political year ahead Page 2 National needs to reinvigorate and demonstrate it has the mojo and ideas for a fourth electoral term, but the far greater political challenge is on the left. Labour settled down under Andrew Little in 2015. In 2016, it needs to re-establish what it stands for with a refreshed policy platform. Without that, 2017 will be a difficult election year for Little. Old campaigners look to another term Page 3 A mark of the growing sense among National MPs of the potential for a fourth term is the likely postponement of retirement announcements by some of its most experienced hands. Bill English, long tipped to go in 2017, now looks almost certain to throw in his lot for the 2017-2020 term. Global gloom Page 4 The bears are in the ascendant at the Davos World Economic Forum and elsewhere, with a growing chorus of commentary about the potential for global economic imbalances to spill over into the next chapter of the GFC. We say that’s over-blown, but must be watched closely. The post-GFC experiment in money-printing has a way to run yet. Is inflation-targeting dead? Page 5 NZ experienced a 0.5% drop in consumer prices in the last quarter of 2015, although that deflation was accompanied by a solid improvement in economic sentiment. We raise our GDP forecasts for NZ in 2016 and, for now, expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 2.5%. Statements in the next fortnight, however, will be a litmus test of Graeme Wheeler’s resolve. Trust – some good and bad news Page 6 Transparency International will next week publish its annual anti-corruption index and NZ will have slipped a few notches. Another annual global survey of trust shows corporates performing better, but the trust gap between an informed ‘elite’ and the general public is growing wider. Tiwai Point – looking safer Page 3 Hydro lakes look full for this time of year and, by some estimates, the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter is breaking even. 2016 may be a more settled year to the electricity industry. Text finalised January 22 Contact: [email protected]. No responsibility is accepted for acts or omissions by clients as a result of items herein. © The Hugo Group 2016 HUGOvision January 22 2016 POLITICS AND POLICY 2016 – Labour needs policy, its scariest lines about a tax hiking govt of the left. National needs vigour As to its own platform, National appeared tired and short a fresh agenda at the end of last year. The The phony war between the parties last year will Budget Policy Statement felt old-fashioned for its be replaced this year by an urgent need on the part promise of income tax cuts in 2017, although they of Labour, in particular, to articulate a credible, do look affordable and would hardly be unpopular. differentiated economic and social policy platform What they lack is imagination and an appreciation before the end of the year, and for National to get its for the emerging impulse in politics for a less mojo back. unequal distribution of wealth and opportunity than Labour’s finance spokesman, Grant Robertson, has has emerged from 30 years of so-called ‘neo-liberal’ been slow out of the blocks and attracted growing economic policies. criticism last year for apparently failing to get We may be wrong, but the rise of the harder left in to grips with the unfamiliar detail of the finance the UK and the protectionist right in the US and portfolio and for leading a well-intentioned but, to Europe may prove over time to be the harbinger of a this point, bland and predictable attempt to examine major shift in developed economy political sentiment the “future of work”. to leaven economic rationalism with attempts to Claiming now to have got over the fact he lost the unmake the resulting inequality. 2014 leadership battle to Andrew Little, Robertson has been in Paris at an OECD conference on future The Parliamentary Year Ahead work trends, including the ubiquitous topic of John Key will open the parliamentary year on Feb 9 automation reaching into the white collar workforce, with the Prime Minister’s statement to Parliament, and in the UK, communing with UK Labour in but the political year starts in earnest next week policy forums. He’s warning to expect “some radical with a slew of State of the Nation speeches. Key will changes” in Labour’s economic positioning. speak in Auckland on Jan 27. We expect new detail Our guess is that Robertson is becoming on willingness to prime the pump with further capex increasingly confident to consider tax system for public infrastructure. Greens co-leader Metiria changes that favour taxing accumulated wealth Turei and NZ First’s Winston Peters both get in early, harder while relieving the tax burden on labour, on Jan 26. Turei says she will announce new policy based on the argument that if work is getting scarcer, that sounds like a ‘truth in advertising’ initiative it shouldn’t be discouraged by increasingly onerous for political party campaigns to ensure elections are tax liabilities. If he can get the positioning right, based on “unbiased facts and not spin”. Good luck Labour may be able to reposition tax reform as a with that. response to inequality without walking straight into In Parliament, the early part of the year will be the electoral no-man’s land of a capital gains tax. dominated by debate about RMA reform and the The most-cited policies are linked to retraining passage of the TPP. and work transition measures, such as the Danish ‘flexi-security’ programme, that generously pays RMA out to workers who lose their jobs. There is less The Resource Legislation Reform Bill was introduced enthusiasm for the Finns’ intended ‘universal basic and sent to select committee before the House rose income”, advocated here by Gareth Morgan as ‘the last year with support of the Maori Party and Labour. Big Kahuna’ and last tried in 1987 by Roger Douglas There is broad support for measures to streamline in the ill-fated flat tax package, which included a and lower the cost of resource consenting, but Guaranteed Minimum Family Income akin to a UBI. there will be devil in the detail. The Local Govt and The concept is attractive to Greens’ co-leader James Environment select committee is taking submissions Shaw, but the party is cautious about going out on until March 14 with a report back due by June 3. any new limbs in economic policy. National’s job is also made difficult in that it has Conventional wisdom among the Greens’ upper already lost the support of its usual allies – ACT’s echelon is that Russel Norman did incalculable David Seymour and United Future’s Peter Dunne. harm by advocating QE as a response appropriate Seymour sees the RMA as regulation gone mad, for NZ after the GFC. while Dunne is furious about the drafting process While Robertson gropes towards a re-articulation in and is dismissive of the bill itself. more future-cast terms of the motivations for some of his predecessors’, David Cunliffe’s and David TPP 2 Parker’s least popular policies, National will dust off Parliament cannot stop the govt signing a treaty and HUGOvision January 22 2016 POLITICS AND POLICY legislative changes required by the TPP are limited to stood only on National’s list at the last election, it areas such as tariff reductions and stronger copyright looked as if he was getting ready to quit politics. But provisions. However, the National Interest Analysis, that may have changed. He is buoyed by the success due for release after the signing ceremony involving of his social investment approach to social spending the 12 member countries’ trade ministers in Auckland which he says has already saved $1b but more on Feb 4, will trigger a select committee inquiry and importantly sees National talking daily to many in reportback. A national roadshow to ramp the deal the non-governmental social sector who traditionally is also planned. However, while the pressure will have been Labour supporters. appear to be on National in this process, the heat on English believes he is winning them over. “At least Labour is greater. National can reduce the debate they are no longer attacking us,” he says. Something to a simple “better in or out” question, with its own similar happened in the mid-1990s when, as Health polling showing a clear preference for “in”. If Labour Minister, English surprised such traditionally appears to be squandering a major international unionised and anti-National groups as nurses with trade opportunity, it risks not being taken seriously an innovative approach to the portfolio that made as a govt in waiting. The issue is deeply divisive sense to them. within the party. The Labour left doesn’t want a bar of it, Labour’s right and a chunk of the parliamentary He thinks the social investment programme can add wing struggle to see how rejecting globalisation 2-3% to National’s vote at the next election. That is squares with a ‘progressive’ agenda.