Never Again: an investigation into the preconditions likely to predict genocide and their application to Sudan and Rwanda A Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Masters of Arts in Political Science in the University of Canterbury By Hannah Scott University of Canterbury 2010 2 Acknowledgements This thesis was made possible through the Peace and Education Disarmament Trust Scholarship and a University of Canterbury Masters' Research Award. I am grateful for the financial assistance this provided me. I would like to thank my primary supervisor, Professor Jacob Bercovitch, for his support and for feeding my interest in the subject. I am grateful for both the academic challenges he presented to me and the sense of humour he invariably displays. I would like to mention, too, the staff and other students at the School of Political Science and Communication at the University of Canterbury, who over the years have offered much support and friendship. Most importantly, I would like to thank my father, Alan Scott, who inspired me, from a young age, to pursue a career in politics. His support and interest in my academic progress has been unwavering. I would like to thank the rest of my family and friends for their support, especially my mother, Anne, for her ongoing interest, encouragement and love. Never shall I forget that night, the first night in camp, which has turned my life into one long night, seven times cursed and seven times sealed. Never shall I forget that smoke. Never shall I forget the little faces of the children, whose bodies I saw turned into wreaths of smoke beneath a silent blue sky. Never shall I forget those flames which consumed my faith forever. Never shall I forget that nocturnal silence which deprived me, for all eternity, of the desire to live. Never shall I forget those moments which murdered my God and my soul and turned my dreams to dust. Never shall I forget these things, even if I am condemned to live as long as God Himself. Never. Elie Wiesel 3 Table of Contents List of Figures...................................................................................................5 Abstract.............................................................................................................6 Chapter One: Introduction..............................................................................7 1.1 Introduction............................................................................................7 1.2 Definition of Key Concepts and Terms...................................................9 1.3 Operational definition of genocide and politicide..................................13 1.4 The problem……………………………................................................13 1.5 Genocide and conflict.............................................................................14 1.6 Objective…………………………………….…………………………21 1.7 Methodology…………………………………………………………...23 1.8 Thesis structure…………………………………………………………25 Chapter Two: Literature review and theoretical framework ……………..26 2.1 Introduction.............................................................................................26 2.2 Theories examining structural factors......................................................28 2.2a Armed Conflict and genocide...................................................................28 2.2b Political upheaval………………..............................................................29 2.2c Guerrilla warfare…………………………………...................................32 2.2d Ancient hatreds and old age feuds…………………………………..…..34 2.2e Powerful state theory…………………………………………………....34 2.2f Weak states: elite vulnerability and threat perceptions…….....................35 2.3 Socio-psychological theories and genocidal identity construction............37 2.4 Political factors..........................................................................................39 2.4a Regime type...............................................................................................40 2.4b Media openness.........................................................................................43 2.4c The Ideological Orientation of the Ruling Elite........................................44 2.4d Militarised regimes: arming genocide………...........................................45 2.5 External factors..........................................................................................46 2.5a Failure of the international community to act...........................................47 2.5b Regional factors………………………………………............................49 2.6 Theoretical framework……………………………………...……...…....50 2.7 Preconditions……………………………………………………...….....51 2.7a Structural factors………………………………………………...……....51 2.8 Political factors………………………………………………...………..55 2.8a Exclusionary ideology………………………………………...…………55 2.8b Regime type…………………………………………………...…….…..55. 2.8c Low media openness…………………………………...........………......55 2.9 Ethnic and religious factors………………………………………….…..57 2.9a The ethnic character of the ruling elite………………………………......58 2.9b Severe political and economic discrimination……………………….......58 2.10 Economic factors……………………………………………………..…59 2.10a Low economic development………………………………………….....60 2.11 External factors……………………………………………………….....60 2.11a Economic and political interdependence…………………………….….60 2.12 Acceleratory factors…………………………………………………......63 2.12a Internal accelerators…………………………………………………......63 2.12b External accelerators…………………………………………………......65 Chapter Three: Rwanda.....................................................................................68 4 3.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………….68 3.2 The genocide..............................................................................................69 3.3 Structural factors………………. ..............................................................71 3.3a Political upheaval and war.........................................................................71 3.3b Guerrilla warfare.......................................................................................73 3.3c Prior genocides and a culture of impunity……………………………… 75 3.3d Military victory or mediated settlement....................................................79 3.4 Political factors……………………………...............................................80 3.4a Regime type…………………...................................................................81 3.4b Democratisation………. ..........................................................................81 3.4c Low media openness……………….........................................................83 3.4d Ideology of the ruling elite…………………………………………….....84 3.4e The arming of Rwanda – a military regime……………………………..86 3.5 Economic factors…………......................................................................88 3.6 Ethnic factors …………………………………………………………......90 3.6a Ethnic characteristics of the ruling elite…………………………..……..91 3.6b policies and practices of discrimination…………………………….......92 3.7 External Factors…….…………………………………………..………..93 3.7a Exile and refugee communities…………………………………………..95 Chapter Four: Sudan………………..............................................................99 4.1 Introduction...............................................................................................99 4.2 The genocide……... .................................................................................100 4.3 Structural factors…………………….. ....................................................103 4.3a Political upheaval ……………................................................................103 4.3b Regime crisis………................................................................................103 4.3c Armed conflict…....................................................................................104 4.3d Prior genocides ……..............................................................................107 4.4 Political factors........................................................................................108 4.4a Regime type…………............................................................................108 4.4b Exclusionary ideology ……………………...........................................109 4.4c Low media openness………………………...........................................111 4.4d Ethnic and religious factors…………....................................................112 4.4e The ethnic character of the ruling elite……………………...................113 4.4f Severe economic and political discrimination………………………….114 4.5 Economic factors……………………………………………………….115 4.5a Low economic development …...............................................................115 4.6 External factors…………………………………………………………115. Chapter Five: Conclusion……………………………………......................118 5.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................118 5.2 Factors contributing to genocide…...........................................................120 5.3 Future research...........................................................................................128 5.4...Policy implication......................................................................................128 5.5...Prevention..................................................................................................129 5.5a Poverty reduction......................................................................................130 5.5b Early intervention in conflict....................................................................131