2013 PRIVATE SECTOR ASSESSMENT REPORT (PSAR) for The Commonwealth of The Bahamas Guillermo R. Alborta February 2013 pg. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction and Background Compete Caribbean and the Inter-American Development Bank (CC-IADB) Private Sector Assessment Report (PSAR) Content CHAPTER I: IDENTIFYING MARKET FAILURES I. Goal of Private Sector Development (PSD) and Current Agenda I.1 Private Sector Importance for Long Term Growth II. Overview of the economy Summary of the Overall Economy II.1 Domestic Economy Gross Domestic Product Inflation Unemployment Fiscal Balance II.2 International economy Current Account of the Balance of Payments Foreign External Debt and Exchange Rate Regime Trade Foreign Direct Investment and Sovereign Credit Ratings II.3 Services and the Productive Structure Agriculture and Industry Services II.4 Institutions and Economic Regulation Economic Regulation and Private Activity pg. 2 III State of the Private Sector IV Large and Fast Growing Sectors IV.1 Tourism and Travel and the Wholesale/ Retail Trade Sector IV.2 Financial Intermediation and Financial Services IV.3 Construction IV.4 Industry and Manufacturing IV.5 Agriculture, Fishing and Mining IV.6 Small and Medium Sized Firms and Informality V Issues for Private Sector Development V.1 Institutions for Private Sector Development V.2 Donors and Other International Entities V.3 Access to Finance V.4 Corporate Taxation V.5 Business Environment V.6 Technology and Innovation V.7 Trade and Tariffs and Foreign Direct Investment Policies V.8 Labor Regulation and Workforce V.9 Infrastructure, Communications and Energy V.10 Environment V.11 Gender V.12 Crime, Corruption and Informality V.13 Analytical Remarks and SWOT Analysis of PSD CHAPTER II: SELECTING AND PRIORITIZING ISSUES I. Identifying Critical Issues I.1 Inadequately Educated Workforce I.2 Customs and Trade Regulations pg. 3 I.3 Infrastructure, Discretionary and Unpredictable Regulation I.4 Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and Access to Finance I.5 Other Private Sector Development Issues Clustering Information Communication Technology (ICT) Innovation Overwhelming public sector red-tape and lack of transparency II. Establishing a long term action plan CHAPTER III: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS I. Improving Education and Workforce Skills II. Infrastructure Provision and the Private Investment Enabling Environment III. Financial Support for SMEs and Entrepreneurial Development IV. Others V. Policy Matrix BIBLIOGRAPHY ANNEX A: List of Participants ANNEX B: Comparable Countries ANNEX C: Data Charts pg. 4 PRIVATE SECTOR ASSESSMENT REPORT (PSAR) FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE BAHAMAS Introduction and Background The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is located in the western part of the Caribbean islands. The Bahamas is an archipelago country consisting of more than 3,000 islands, cays and islets in the Atlantic Ocean, north of Cuba and the Dominican Republic and Haiti, northwest of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeast of the US state of Florida. The country's population, numbering around 351,461, lives on a land area of 13,939 km2 (5,382 sq mi). Its capital city is Nassau, located on the island of New Providence, while the city of Freeport, the second largest city, is situated on Grand Bahama. At its northern border lies the United States of America, and its western, eastern, and southern borders are Cuba, Haiti/Dominican Republic (Hispaniola island) and Turks & Caicos Islands, respectively. Self-government was achieved in 1964 and full independence in 1973. Lynden Pindling was the first prime minister and head of the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) until 1992 when the Free National Movement (FNM) won parliamentary elections. The FNM ruled for 10 years with its leader, Hubert Ingraham, as prime minister until the PLP, led by Perry Christie, returned to power in 2002 until 2007. Elections in 2007 restored Ingraham to the post until 2012. The Commonwealth of the Bahamas’ most recent election was held in May 2012 when Perry Christie (PLP) was elected to return to post. Next elections might be expected by 2017. The head of state is Queen Elizabeth II of Britain, represented in the Bahamas by a Governor- General. The head of the government is the prime minister, who is the leader of the majority party or coalition following legislative elections. The two chamber legislature consists of the pg. 5 Senate, whose 16 members are appointed by the Governor-General on the advice of the prime minister and the leader of the opposition for five year terms, and the House of Assembly whose 41 members are elected by popular vote for five year terms. The government may dissolve parliament and call elections at any time. The Bahamas is classified as a high-income economy, but is not a member of the OECD group. In 2011 the total nominal value of goods and services produced was USD$ 11.1 billion (current international USD equivalent) according to the World Bank. GDP per capita on a purchasing power parity basis (PPP) was $31,978. In relative terms, in 2011 the Bahamian per capita GDP was almost 2.6 times higher than the per capita income average for Latin America and the Caribbean. In terms of income inequality, the situation is less positive. Average income inequality in the Caribbean region as estimated by the Gini coefficient was 0.38 in 2005, while the Bahamas Gini coefficient was 0.47 percent in 2011. There are wide regional variances in this measure, however, with neighboring countries showing greater income inequality such as Haiti (0.65), St. Vincent and the Grenadines (0.60), and Antigua and Barbuda (0.50). The Bahamas’ economy has been largely influenced by two services sectors that represent probably two-thirds of its economy and employ most of its labor force. The Bahamian economy is driven by tourism (and tourism-related construction) and financial services. Industrial production, manufacturing and agriculture are limited by the country’s geographic extension and factor endowment, mainly land and labor. Agriculture is largely carried out on small plots throughout most of the islands. The nature of the terrain limits the scope of farming, and only one percent of land is cultivated, mainly for household consumption. Limited agriculture and agro industry production has necessitated the import of some 80% of the islands’ food supply. The Bahamas is among the Western Hemisphere countries most vulnerable to global food price increases because it imports most of its food. Tourism directly and indirectly employs about half the Bahamian work force. In 2008, 4.6 million tourists visited the Bahamas, 85% from the United States. The number of visitors declined in 2009 due to the global economic crisis, but by December 2010, the Bahamas once again enjoyed 5 million visitors. This was a 4.5% year-on-year decrease from 2007. There are about 110 U.S.-affiliated businesses operating in the Bahamas, and most are associated with tourism and banking. With few domestic resources and little industry, the Bahamas imports nearly all its food and manufactured goods from the United States. American goods and services tend to be favored by Bahamians due to cultural similarities and heavy exposure to American advertising. The Bahamian economy, due to its heavy reliance on U.S. tourism and trade, is strongly tied to U.S. economic performance. The last 2010 census recorded that the population of the Bahamas is 351,461, with an average annual growth rate of 1.6 percent from 2000 to 2010. In absolute terms the population rose by 47,850 persons during the last ten years. The bulk of the population (70%) resides in New Providence, with another 14.6% living in Grand Bahamas and 5% in Abaco Island. The other islands or the Family Islands are less populated, with a total approximate population of 36,540 inhabitants. pg. 6 As a small island state, the Bahamas along with other Caribbean countries faces extraordinary vulnerabilities. Despite the country’s relatively high average per capita income, the geographical spread of the islands, over-reliance on a few key economic sectors to drive economic growth, and exposure to recurring natural disasters increases the country’s vulnerability to external shocks. Economic exposure is generally determined on the basis of the economy’s trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world, or neighbor countries as the case for Bahamas. Economic vulnerability measurements are related to income volatility and resilience, as determined by a weighted measure of GDP using principal components analysis. Tourism-dependent economies are dangerously reliant on the regular arrival of tourists. If the rate or number of tourists from the United States falls, this would have immediate negative repercussions on the economy. The Bahamas has benefitted immensely from tourism, but the industry is changing and the country needs to maintain a competitive advantage in the sector over many neighboring competitors or comparable economies for the sector to remain the driver of economic growth in the future. For this report, the selection of country comparators was made to deliberately focus on Caribbean neighbors. The comparator countries selected for the Commonwealth of the Bahamas are: Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. The rationale for the selection of these countries is described in detail in Annex B. Compete Caribbean and the Inter-American Development Bank (CC-IADB) As part of Inter-American Development Bank efforts and activities to support economic development in the region, it created