Issue 13—December 2008 Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad On the agenda this month: • Politics in 21st century Wales ‐ leading figures discuss the future of their parties • “The crowd gives the leader new strength” ‐ the Labour leadership contest is shaping up • The Valleys Job Crunch ‐ the economic downturn takes hold • Plastic Bag Levy ‐ should shoppers pay? Welsh Lib Dems elect new leader Kirsty Williams It has been officially announced that Kirsty Williams AM for Brecon and Radnorshire has won the Welsh Liberal Democrat leadership con‐ test, beating her rival candidate Jenny Randerson AM. Kirsty received support from Mark Williams MP for Ceredigion and her own fellow Assembly Members Peter Black and Mick Bates. She also received high profile support from Lord Roberts of Llandudno. Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad is a joint initiative between Grayling Political Strategy and the In‐ stitute of Welsh Affairs, bringing you the ABC of Welsh politics every month. Institute of Welsh Affairs Grayling Global 1‐3 Museum Place 2 Caspian Point, Caspian Way, Cardiff, CF10 3BD Cardiff Bay, CF10 4DQ Tel: 029 2066 6606 Tel: 029 2046 2507 www.iwa.org.uk www.grayling.com Issue 13 — December 2008 Politics in 21st century Wales Nick Morris, Institute of Welsh are drawn down to the Assembly from the Westmin‐ Affairs ster Parliament is “devolution by the back door”. He says: “It would have been much better to go straight Welsh Labour needs to revive its for‐ to the people and hold a referendum on proper pow‐ tunes in West Wales to make pro‐ ers.” gress at the next Assembly elections, Plaid Cymru’s Carmarthen East MP Adam Price according to Rhodri Morgan, the speculates that a coalition government between his First Minister. party and the Conservatives is a real prospect in the Writing in Politics in 21st Century Wales, a new IWA 2011 Assembly election. He argues: “A nationalist‐ publication, he said: “The reason why I think it abso‐ Tory coalition would still seem counter‐intuitive, lutely essential that we turn our minds again, as a though the shock factor will be greatly diminished by party, to winning in the west is the simple recognition the near‐precedent in 2007.” that, as far as the Assembly is concerned at least, Kirsty Williams, the Liberal Democrat AM for Brecon without winning in the west, Labour cannot win and Radnorshire, says her party should be much Wales.” more ambitious in its target for winning Assembly In his contribution to the IWA publication, Conserva‐ seats. She says Liberal Democrats must project mes‐ tive Assembly leader Nick Bourne argues that the sage that provokes a “gut‐level, emotional response” present Assembly structure is a “political fix” and from the electorate. She added: “However, as a Group says the Richard Commission proposals, advocating a in the Assembly we have failed to do that. We haven’t Scottish‐style Parliament for Wales, were “a missed given people a gut feeling. In our attempts to make opportunity to seek to build a consensus”. He argues our appeal as broad as we can we have failed to that the present process by which legislative powers stamp our mark.” “The crowd gives the leader new strength” Grayling Political Strategy contenders. Both the Health Minister Edwina Hart and the Finance Minister Andrew Davies could throw Although not quite formally announced and not yet their hats into the ring, and could gain the support of having reached the heady‐heights of the Welsh Lib‐ five other Members in order to secure a nomination. eral Democrats contest, the Labour leadership contest In October this year, another senior figure in the is slowly but surely shaping up. Welsh Labour party, the Environment Minister, Jane Davidson announced that she will be standing down The Deputy Minister for Regeneration and Rhondda at the next election, and has indicated that she will AM, Leighton Andrews has categorically ruled him‐ not be pursuing a further career in politics – of any self out of any Labour leadership contest that will kind. take place. Mr. Andrews was, until his announce‐ ment, regarded as one of the frontrunners to contest With two of Welsh Labour’s ‘biggest beasts’ having the leadership when Rhodri Morgan AM stands ruled themselves out, the stage appears set for a three down, sometime around his 70th birthday in Septem‐ or four‐way leadership fight. However, with a signifi‐ ber 2009. Back in February 2008, the Western Mail cant amount of time left until the contest is an‐ tipped Leighton Andrews AM as a “dark horse” in nounced, let alone begins, there are a number of vari‐ the leadership contest, setting up a four‐way competi‐ ables which could change the landscape again. Not tion between the Rhondda AM; the Counsel General, least of which is the sheer mathematics of the contest, Carwyn Jones; the Finance Minister Andrew Davies; given that Labour Assembly Members need a total of and backbencher, Huw Lewis. With Mr. Andrews six nominations (themselves and five others) to offi‐ having removed himself from the leadership mur‐ cially enter the leadership contest. If the three Minis‐ murings, the real contest is beginning to shape up as ters gather the minimum of five supporting votes a two‐horse race between Carwyn Jones and Huw each, then Huw Lewis will have to garner the support Lewis. However, there are still a number of senior from the remaining AMs; which may prove difficult Welsh Labour figures who could broaden the field of with three Cabinet members in the running. The Valleys Job Crunch Grayling Political Strategy Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones was quoted in the Western Mail: “We will spare no effort in helping to The South Wales manufacturing industry has been on safeguard employment, find new opportunities for the receiving end of an onslaught of bad news in re‐ those affected and protect the interests of the commu‐ cent weeks with the announcement of numerous com‐ nity. I have already made it clear to Hoover Candy’s panies cutting jobs and production in the region. senior management that the Assembly Government will do everything in its power to work with the com‐ At the end of October, L’Oreal announced that it was pany to save the maximum number of jobs at the Mer‐ hoping to sell its factory in Talbot Green to the French thyr operation.” manufacturer Fareva. The sale is likely to lead to the loss of 200 workers out of the 260 currently on the pay‐ A mere 24 hours later, Bosch’s Miskin plant issued a roll. AMs and local councillors pledged to meet statement saying, that due to a decline in customer L’Oreal and attempt to reverse the decision or at least orders, “we expect that 250 jobs spread across all areas aid skilled workers in finding alternative employment. and functions within the plant are now at risk.” On 28 Commenting on the job losses, the Deputy First Minis‐ November, Maesteg was also hit, as a major employer ter and Minister for Economy and Transport, Ieuan in the area, Budelpack COSi, announced that they will Wyn Jones AM, said that it was “very disappointing” be cutting 263 jobs and he pledged to “do everything within our power” to help the workers and protect them from further job With the numerous job losses having a significant im‐ losses. pact on south Wales’ industry and the local economy, it will be interesting to see in the coming weeks and Another announce‐ months exactly what the Welsh Assembly Govern‐ ment came in mid‐ ment is able to do in consultation with these compa‐ November from the nies to reduce the number of job losses. The question Italian owned firm that remains is what the Welsh Assembly Government Hoover Candy that is prepared to do – and can do – to minimize the ef‐ 337 jobs at their Mer‐ fects of these redundancies on employees and the local thyr Tydfil plant communities, particularly in the current climate of re‐ were at risk. The cession. Plastic Bag Levy Nick Morris, Institute of Welsh Affairs a levy. The report suggests money from the levy should be used to fund environmental projects. Shoppers in Wales should pay a levy of 10 pence on plastic bags at checkouts, according to a report from The original petition was submitted by Neil Evans, the Assembly’s Sustainability Committee. from Carmarthenshire, as the winning suggestion in a BBC Wales project. Petitions formally submitted are The Committee issued the report after an inquiry in considered by the Assembly’s Petitions Committee. In response to a petition, formally submitted to the As‐ this case, after confirming Welsh powers to ban or im‐ sembly, that asked for plastic bags to be banned in pose levies on plastic bags, the Petitions Committee Wales. Mick Bates AM, the committee chair, said: ʺWe referred the petition to the Sustainability Committee do not consider that banning plastic bags in Wales who conducted the inquiry. would be a feasible option for the Welsh Assembly Winners of the Welsh Politician of the Year Awards Government. The committee believes that a levy is the best and most practical form of intervention that the • MP to Watch - Jenny Willott MP Welsh Assembly Government could make and that • Campaigner of the year - Nerys Evan AM profits raised from such a levy should be used for • Local Politician of the Year - Cllr John Davies environmental benefits.” • AM of the Year - Edwina Hart AM • Welsh MP of the Year - Paul Murphy MP • Lifetime Achievement Award - Dafydd Wigley A clause in the forthcoming Climate Change Bill in • AM to watch - Darren Millar AM Westminster will give the Assembly powers to impose Issue 13 — December 2008 IWA and Grayling’s recent activity The Institute of Welsh Affairs publications….