1. INTRODUCTION ___________________________________________________________________________________ 197 1.1 PORT PLANNING PRINCIPLES .................................................................................................................................................... 198 1.2 MARITIME ECONOMIC REVIEW ................................................................................................................................................ 198 1.3 KEY PORT PLANNING TRENDS AND ISSUES .................................................................................................................................. 200 2. SOUTH AFRICA’S PORT SYSTEM ______________________________________________________________________ 201 2.1 PORTS OF SOUTH AFRICA ........................................................................................................................................................ 201 2.2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE PORTS SYSTEM ....................................................................................................................................... 202 2.3 POTENTIAL PORT SITES ........................................................................................................................................................... 202 2.4 PORT’S RAIL AND ROAD INTEGRATION ....................................................................................................................................... 204 2.5 TRANSNET PLANNING ALIGNMENT AND REFLECTION OF KEY GOVERNMENT STRATEGIES ..................................................................... 206 3. NEW EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES _____________________________________________________________________ 209 3.1 SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGIES ................................................................................................................................................... 209 3.2 VESSEL NAVIGATION .............................................................................................................................................................. 210 3.3 PORT OPERATIONS ................................................................................................................................................................ 210 3.4 PORT SECURITY ..................................................................................................................................................................... 213 3.5 PORT MAINTENANCE ............................................................................................................................................................. 213 4. PORT DEMAND FORECAST ___________________________________________________________________________ 215 4.1. NATIONAL CARGO DEMAND .................................................................................................................................................... 215 4.2 CONTAINER DEMAND .............................................................................................................................................................. 217 4.3 DRY BULK DEMAND ................................................................................................................................................................ 218 4.4 BREAK-BULK DEMAND ............................................................................................................................................................ 219 4.5 LIQUID BULK AND SBM CRUDE DEMAND ................................................................................................................................... 220 4.6 AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND ........................................................................................................................................................... 220 5. INDUSTRIALISATION SCENARIOS _____________________________________________________________________ 221 5.1 ALTERNATIVE DEMAND SCENARIOS ........................................................................................................................................... 221 5.2 FERROMANGANESE SMELTER AT THE PORT OF NGQURA ................................................................................................................ 222 5.3 OEM VEHICLE PLANT ............................................................................................................................................................. 222 5.4 CRUDE AND GAS REFINERY ...................................................................................................................................................... 223 5.5 “SASOL 4” PLANT .................................................................................................................................................................. 223 5.6 COPPER AND COBALT BENEFICIATION ........................................................................................................................................ 223 6. PORT CAPACITY PLANNING __________________________________________________________________________ 224 6.1 NATIONAL STATUS QUO ......................................................................................................................................................... 224 6.2 PORT PROPERTY PLANNING ..................................................................................................................................................... 225 6.3 CONTAINER CAPACITY PLANNING .............................................................................................................................................. 229 6.3.1 Durban Container Planning ....................................................................................................................................... 230 6.3.2 Cape Town Container Planning ................................................................................................................................. 230 6.3.3 Port Elizabeth Container Planning ............................................................................................................................. 231 6.3.4 Port of Ngqura Container Planning ........................................................................................................................... 231 6.4 DRY BULK CAPACITY PLANNING ................................................................................................................................................ 232 6.5 BREAK-BULK CAPACITY PLANNING ............................................................................................................................................ 233 6.6 LIQUID BULK CAPACITY PLANNING ............................................................................................................................................ 233 6.7 AUTOMOTIVE CAPACITY PLANNING ........................................................................................................................................... 233 Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2016 193 6.8 NON-FREIGHT SECTOR ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................. 234 6.8.1 Passenger Terminals .................................................................................................................................................. 234 6.8.2 Ship Repair Facilities .................................................................................................................................................. 235 6.8.3 Oil and Gas Offshore Supply Bases ............................................................................................................................ 235 6.8.4 Fishing Facilities ......................................................................................................................................................... 236 6.8.5 Navy Facilities ............................................................................................................................................................ 236 6.8.6 Port Fleet Requirements ............................................................................................................................................ 237 6.8.7 Terminal Equipment Overview .................................................................................................................................. 238 6.8.8 Vessel Sizes, Port Calls and Capabilities ..................................................................................................................... 240 7. INDIVIDUAL PORT DEVELOPMENT PLANS ______________________________________________________________ 243 7.1 PORT OF SALDANHA BAY .............................................................................................................................................................. 243 7.1.1 Role of the Port .......................................................................................................................................................... 243 7.1.2 Metro Context and Connectivity ................................................................................................................................ 244 7.1.3 Status Quo and Vessel Distribution ........................................................................................................................... 245 7.1.4 Demand ....................................................................................................................................................................