2019 Kent Property Market Cover: Caxtons’ Property Market Analysis Chapel Down Winery opened its new state-of-the art brewery and visitor centre, Curious Brewery in Ashford town centre in May 2019. The brewery includes a shop, tasting area, bar and restaurant. Photo: Curious Brewery / Ashley Gendek Photography Limited 04 10 16 Caxtons’ Property Market Outlook Industrial and Distribution Performance Rural Performance While the UK economy has succeeded in The weakness of sterling driven by It is remarkable how resilient the farmland withstanding a significant level of Brexit Brexit uncertainty has assisted exporting market has been this year, report Savills. related uncertainty over recent years, recent manufacturing companies to an extent, intensification is taking its toll on activity. but confidence and business investment 20 remains weak. This has not been reflected Residential Performance 06 in the industrial and logistics sectors which According to analysis for this report by Business Park Performance continue to deliver robust returns. Hometrack, Kent markets have generally Despite the uncertain political and economic outperformed the south east average with backdrop, the business park market in the 12 price growth of 0.18% over the 12 months south east has proved relatively buoyant Retail Performance to end of July. This compares with growth over the last year, contrasting with a more Vacant units are gradually being absorbed of 2.1% for the UK as a whole. subdued previous 12 month period. and independent retailers and restaurants are expanding their presence on the county’s 08 high streets, facilitated by the nationwide rent Office Performance rebase of recent years. Leisure uses are The ongoing expansion of agile working also seeing growth across the county, again and freelancing has brought further serviced mirroring a nationwide trend reported by office space provision to the county. Local Data Company. 02 Welcome An introduction to the 28th edition of the Kent Property Market Report, produced by Kent County Council’s Economic Development Division, Caxtons and Locate in Kent. 04 Ashford Designer Outlet: The expansion brings 500 jobs and 50 new fashion, food and homeware brands, a new food piazza and a redesigned, 07 interactive children’s play area. The HUB at Kent Science Park, Photo: Ashford Designer Outlet Sittingbourne, opened this Spring. Photo: Kent Science Park Kent County Council, Medway Council Locate in Kent Contributory Sponsors’ & Kent’s District Council Commentary Commentary Articles 14 22 52 Leisure and Tourism Performance Inward Investment Clague Architects The most recent Cambridge Economic Impact Model analysis Locate in Kent, the official invest- showed that in 2017 the county welcomed a record 65 million visitors, ment promotion agency for Kent 53 an increase of five million visitors on 2015 which included over one and Medway, review some recent Cripps Pemberton Greenish million international visitors for the first time. market trends and highlight notable investment projects in the county. 54 24 DHA Planning Infrastructure and Regeneration Kent County Council, Medway Council and Kent’s District Councils 55 commentary on infrastructure and regeneration. Handelsbanken 50 56 Green Infrastructure MHA MacIntyre Hudson Exemplar projects from Low Carbon Kent to sustainable urban drainage systems. 57 The O’Keefe Group 58 RICS 14 23 Lion Lodge at Port Lympne Hotel The Copper Rivet distillery is set in a Strategic Developments, & Reserve, near Hythe. magnificent Victorian Pump House on Photo: Port Lympne Hotel & Reserve Chatham Dockyard. Contacts and Photo: Locate in Kent Acknowledgements 60 Strategic Developments Location map and list of develop- ments by use class across Kent and Medway with contact details. 63 Contact details 64 Acknowledgements 35 Proposal for Canterbury Riverside from riverfront. Photo: Link City Kent Property Market Report 2019 01 Proposal for Clifton Slipways, Gravesend. Photo: Quinn Estates 02 Kent Property Market Report 2019 Welcome to the 28th Edition of the Kent Property Kent County Council’s Economic Development Market Report. Division works with public, private and voluntary Welcome sectors to support economic growth by encouraging The report is produced by Kent County Council, and supporting businesses; working closely with Caxtons and Locate in Kent. specific sectors to promote growth and finding ways to fund business critical infrastructure and unlocking The Caxtons Property Market Analysis reviews key development sites. property deals and activity during 2018-19 and covers: • Business parks Locate in Kent provides a comprehensive, • Offices confidential and free business relocation and • Industrial advisory service for all companies looking to • Retail relocate to or expand in Kent and Medway. • Housing The producers of the report thank sponsors and Locate in Kent provide details of the 70 companies contributors to the report: helped last year to set up, move or expand in Kent • Clague Architects and Medway, creating 1,665 jobs over 3 years and • Cripps Pemberton Greenish retaining 1,960 jobs. • DHA Planning • Handelsbanken The Infrastructure and Regeneration section • MHA MacIntyre Hudson features current and planned developments. • The O’Keefe Group It focusses on Kent’s growth areas, continuing • Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors regeneration of Kent’s coastal towns, rural property, tourism and green infrastructure as well as significant We hope you find the report useful and informative. investment in road and rail infrastructure. The Strategic Developments pages feature a comprehensive list of sites, useful contact details Mike Whiting and a location map. Cabinet Member for Economic Development, Kent County Council The full report can also be found at: www.kentpropertymarket.com Caxtons Chartered Surveyors, established in 1990, is one of the largest independent property practices Ron Roser in the South East offering a full range of agency, Chairman, Caxtons management, professional and surveying services across all property sectors. Gavin Cleary Chief Executive, Locate in Kent Ltd Kent Property Market Report 2019 03 Caxtons’ Property Market Analysis Components of All Property IPF total return Caxtons’ Property forecast for UK Commercial Property Market Outlook Annualised average over period 2019-2023 0.9% Rental growth 0.5% UK All Property annualised total return forecast 2019 Capital return -0.8% Source: Investment Property Forum Survey of Independent Total return 4.0% Forecasts for UK Commercial Property, August 2019 Source: Investment Property Forum Survey of Independent Forecasts for UK Commercial Property, August 2018. Forecasts derived from 24 leading fund/investment management houses and consultancies. While the UK economy has succeeded in withstanding a On the domestic front, consumer spending has remained PHOTO: MCARTHURGLEN DESIGNER OUTLET significant level of Brexit related uncertainty over recent years, relatively resilient despite the uncertainty. Record levels of recent intensification is taking its toll on activity. The Bank of employment have contributed to this outcome, although England’s average of independent forecasts indicates GDP with real incomes continuing to exhibit slow growth, the growth of 1.3% for 2019, well below the long term trend, with a potential for an expansion in spending currently remains more subdued 1.2% expansion in 2020. This said, all forecasts relatively mute even with a Brexit settlement. are currently accompanied by a plethora of scenarios and caveats given the current unique circumstances. Kent’s business park sector is looking ahead of the current turmoil. Established parks such as Kings Hill have seen robust Business investment has proved a casualty of this lettings activity, while the county’s science and technology uncertainty, compounded by a downturn in inward offering is developing rapidly with growth plans at Kent investment into the UK. Of course, the direction of Brexit Science Park, Discovery Park and Kent Medical Campus. travel may be clearer by the time of the publication of this The rapid expansion of technology and life sciences over report, but domestic issues are not the only concerns for the coming years will present tremendous opportunity. the UK economy. The global outlook is also less positive But success will depend on attracting top talent as well with the emergence of trade barriers in the US slowing as businesses across the spectrum, from start-ups to the growth in China and weak Eurozone growth. established. This year’s addition of further innovation space to the county’s existing supply will support this ambition. McArthurGlen Designer Outlet, Ashford. PHOTO: DISCOVERY PARK DISCOVERY PHOTO: Nationally, office market total returns have slipped over the Kent prime yields last year due to outward shifts in yields, despite occupier ntra Mtet ntra trton Offices ne Parks activity remaining relatively buoyant. Kent has seen values 10 remain stable, with robust demand and supply shortages driving rental growth, underpinning values. The county’s 90 towns with a critical mass of stock have seen greater activity, including increased representation of knowledge-based 80 industries. Strategies to boost creative industries as part of the Thames Estuary Production Corridor will further support 7.0 e high value jobs growth. 60 The delivery of new housing will be crucial to support these ambitions. While Kent remains relatively affordable on a south 50 east basis, this value is increasingly being recognised,