CALLS IN THE OPPOSITION FOR GREATER JANUSZ BUGAJSKI ON RUSSIAN-GERMAN HETMAN PAVLO SKOROPADSKY COORDINATION COULD COLLAPSE STRATEGIC COMPETITION AND PROJECT UKRAINE IN INTERNECINE WARFARE № 10 (52) JUNE 2013 THE FASCISTS OF THE FUTURE WILL BE CALLED ANTI-FASCISTS WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM Featuring selected content from The Economist FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION |CONTENTS BRIEFING FOCUS The Thousand and Anti-Fascism and the One Integrations: The Yanukovych Regime: The consequences of the latest government is imposing agreements between bandit rules under the Yanukovych and Putin guise of a struggle 4 against fascism 6 POLITICS Thugs for Hire: An army of street The Primaries Kick Off: How the opposition’s fighters is being established under declaration of deeper coordination could collapse the supervision of law enforcement into internecine warfare agencies 10 12 SECURITY Ukraine Incognita: Ukrainian politicians use NATO’s Dirk Brengelmann on the European platform to suit their own cooperation with Ukraine as a narrow personal interests non-aligned state, Smart Defence and the impact of financial crises on defence policies 14 16 NEIGHBOURS New Old Rivalry: Janusz Bugajski The Kremlin Plot Thickens: on Russian-German strategic A spy scandal that points to competition and its impact on the rising anti-Americanism in continent Russia 18 20 ECONOMICS United again whom? Exports to Russia fall despite a positive trend of the Russian economy and arguments in favor of joining the CU Good News, Bad Anders Aslund: Yanukovych’s 6 10 5 8 News, New News: presidency is essentially finished in 4 6 Exports to the EU, the terms of reforms. It is now a matter of 3 4 owth, % Customs Union and, muddling through and survival eal gr R USD bn 2 2 surprisingly, Africa 1 0 0 -2 I II III IV I II III IV I 2011 2012 2013 22 24 GDP, Russia (right-hand scale) Russia’s indurial output (right-hand scale) Imports of goods from Ukraine HISTORSources: State atiics committees ofY Ukraine and Russia Pavlo Skoropadsky: The Hetmanate: A Ukrainian hetman torn Accomplishments and failures between two loyalties of the 1918 reforms 26 28 CULTURE & ARTS Esthetic Education: Musician, photographer and film director Louis Franck talks about his experience as a foreigner in Ukraine and the limitless talent possessed by all human beings 30 E-mail [email protected] Tel. (044) 351-13-87 www.ukrainianweek.com The Ukrainian Week № 10 (52) June 2013 Editors address 37 Mashynobudivna str., Kyiv, 03067, Ukraine Founder ECEM Media GmbH Print Novy Druk LLC, 1 Mahnitohorska str., Kyiv, 03056, Ukraine Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Ordering number 13-6522 . Sent to print on 30 May 2013 Address Austria, Am Gestade,1, 1010 Vienna Print run 15 000. Free distribution State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Head of editorial board Roman Tsupryk Our partner Editors Anna Korbut, Natalia Romaneс, Shaun Williams № 10 (52) JUNE 2013|THE UKRAINIAN WEEK|3 BRIEFING| 16-29 May Lviv imposes a Journalists are injured in The Czech Republic complete ban on clashes between par- starts issuing multiple any advertising of ticipants of the opposition’s entry Schengen visas to alcohol Rise Ukraine! rally and the Ukrainians who travel anti-fascist march.The police there as tourists or for does not intervene (see p. 6) recreational purposes The Thousand and One Integrations Author: he government continues to that the signing of the relevant Current arrangements do not Oleksandr boast about the President’s memorandum will take place at bind anyone to anything though. Kramar successful foreign policy the CIS leaders’ summit on May 31 Their present status does not suit Tstrategy leading to “west- in Minsk, along with the declara- Moscow’s interests, therefore they ward and eastward successes”. tion of Ukraine’s intent to join the will not protect Ukrainian produc- The “accomplishments” in Euro- EEU, once established, as an ob- ers from obstacles in the export of pean integration advertised in server. their products to Russia and other mid-May were followed by those Similar to the CIS FTZ Agree- Customs Union member-states in cooperation with the Customs ment signed eighteen months ago, without further concessions to Rus- Union and Eurasian Economic this ritual move will have no practi- sia on the part of Ukraine. Community (EurAsEC) last week. cal consequences. After Ukraine Meanwhile, another crucial as- On May 26, Yanukovych and Pu- signed the CIS FTZ Agreement pect of Ukraine-Russia relations is tin had a secret meeting in Sochi. which was supposed to have facili- being kept a deep secret. Four years Ukraine’s President then partici- tated bilateral trade, Ukrainian ex- into his presidency, Yanukovych pated in the Supreme Eurasian ports to Russia shrank by USD has made zero progress in solving Economic Council meeting in As- 2.2bn (read more in Good News, the gas problem. Naftogaz’s finan- tana on May 29, where the presi- Bad News, New News on p. cial difficulties have been hidden by dents of Russia, Kazakhstan and 22). Its only possible impact is to buying hardly any gas in the last few Belarus approved the project for serve as a transition to the further months. It has now returned to the transforming the current integra- dragging of Ukraine into the Eur- idea of buying gas on credit from tion entities – the Customs Union asian Union. Sergei Glaziev, post- Gazprom. Energy and Coal Industry first and foremost – into the new Soviet integration advisor to the Minister, Eduard Stavytskyi, stated Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Russian president, confirmed this that he is expecting an advance pay- as of January 1, 2015. It entails right after the meeting in Astana: “It ment from Gazprom for the transit deeper economic integration, sim- is important for the Ukrainian pub- of its gas through Ukraine to Eu- ilar to that in the EU. In post-So- lic to realize that signing the Associ- rope in 2013, and gas purchase will viet reality, this is yet another step ation Agreement with the EU and be resumed with this money. Ac- towards the reincarnation of the participating in the Customs Union cording to the mass media, at their Soviet Union. The result of Yanu- simultaneously is impossible… the May 26 meeting, Yanukovych and kovych’s official visit with respect fact that we agreed to provide Putin talked about the transfer of to Ukraine, is observer status at Ukraine with observer status in the control over the main gas pipelines the Eurasian Economic Commis- Eurasian Economic Union which is in Ukraine to Russia, and the trans- sion (EEC), a standing body of currently being formed, signals fer of control over distribution pipe- EurAsEC within which the Cus- Ukraine’s intent to join the EEU, lines to one or several companies toms Union formally operates. Po- since observer status is only granted close to the Ukrainian government litical agreements have been to states that want to join our inte- – for instance, to Dmytro Firtash or reached and it was announced gration entities.” Serhiy Kurchenko’s VETEK (sources link him to the Family). The future of the GTS 15.2% 12.3% 9.8% 2.7% 0.2% Legislation is already being drafted A survey by the Razumkov Centre in May 2013 revealed public opinion GTS should be GTS should No GTS Other on what Ukraine should do if Russia commits to give Ukraine transferred to be leased answer should options to implement this. Draft law 2937 a gas discount in exchange for its GTS a consortium or transfer- be from April 26, entails amendments of Ukraine, red to Rus- priva- 59.9% Russia and EU sia tized to a number of laws and allow the GTS should remain ate-owned privatization of Naftogaz and its subsidiaries. On May 27, Eduard Stavytskyi stated that Ukraine’s gas transit system (GTS) had been The month in history 15 May 1873 23 May 1948 26 May 1953 Hetman Pavlo Skoropadsky Stalin’s regime deports The Norilsk uprising of is born (see p. 26) 40,000 family members political inmates, most of the anti-communist of them Ukrainians, resistance movement begins. It lasts until 4 participants in Lithuania in August operation Spring 4|THE UKRAINIAN WEEK|№ 10 (52) JUNE 2013 |BRIEFING The Vatican’s Fi- Vladimir Andreyev, the Rus- Lithuania’s Minister of nancial Information sian Consul General in Crimea, Foreign Affairs,L inas Authority releases its resigns after the scandal Linkevičius, states that the first annual financial caused by his discriminating EU is not ready to sign the report statement against Crimean Association Agreement with Tatars (see p. 32) Ukraine at the present time would plummet, contributing to the economic decolonization of Ukraine. Instead, with the GTS handed over to Russia, the latter will gain even more influence and power to drag Ukraine into its Russo-centric project. The surren- der of the GTS will end projects to diversify the gas supply, which will be economically redundant, thus increasing Ukraine’s energy de- pendence on Russia. The Ukrainian GTS includes several main pipelines, gas storage facilities, and distribution pipe- lines. If worse came to worst, Ukraine could lease or sell one or two main pipelines, not the whole GTS. This would leave some op- tions for Ukraine, such as the con- struction of additional branches to import gas from alternative sources or the transit of non-Russian gas, and shale gas in the future. The complete surrender of the GTS will evaluated by Baker Tilly, and the close to those in power will benefit leave Ukraine with minimal oppor- results would be published once from the surrender of the GTS. On tunity to use it for its own benefit in the reform of Naftogaz Ukraine is May 23, the Cabinet of Ministers the future, while Russia will end up completed.