Corso di Laurea magistrale Economia e Gestione delle Aziende – Management delle Imprese Internazionali Tesi di Laurea Reshaping Urban Mobility: Opportunities from the automotive industry crisis and the “peak car”. Relatore Ch. Prof. Francesco Zirpoli Correlatore Ch. Prof.ssa Chiara Mio Laureando Davide Caccin Matricola 822985 Anno Accademico 2012/2013 [Page intentionally left blank] ABSTRACT The Automobile Industry is one of the most important sectors of the European economy. Together with the decreasing production and new registrations of passenger cars, another trend seems to have been arising over the years: Europeans are driving less and are likely to continue doing so. The effects of such a phenomenon – also known as “peak car” – are intertwined with mobility regulations and future urban development plans. Very little evidence, however, exits on how the current industry players, in particular carmakers, are adapting to the new scenario. In this dissertation, I explore what are the opportunities for the industry main players of the “peak car” and the following changes in both the dominant architecture of cars as well as of urban mobility systems. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER 1 - AUTOMOTIVE MARKET OVERVIEW ............................................. 3 1.1 European Automotive Market ................................................................................... 4 1.1.1 Production ............................................................................................................. 4 1.1.2 Registrations .......................................................................................................... 9 1.1.3 Vehicles in Use .................................................................................................... 14 1.1.4 Trade ................................................................................................................. 15 1.1.5 Employment ........................................................................................................ 17 1.2 Italian Automotive Market ....................................................................................... 18 1.2.1 Production ........................................................................................................... 18 1.2.2 Registrations ........................................................................................................ 20 1.2.3 Vehicles in Use .................................................................................................... 27 1.2.4 Taxation on Automotive Sector ............................................................................... 29 1.2.5 Trade ................................................................................................................. 32 1.3 Present - 2013 .......................................................................................................... 33 1.3.1 Europe ............................................................................................................... 33 1.3.2 Italy ................................................................................................................... 34 CHAPTER 2 - PEAK CAR .......................................................................................... 35 2.1 Peak Car .................................................................................................................. 35 2.1.1 History ............................................................................................................... 35 2.1.2 Theoretical Bases .................................................................................................. 37 1. Travel Time Budget ........................................................................................... 38 2. The Growth of Public Transport ....................................................................... 40 3. The Reversal of Urban Sprawl ........................................................................... 42 4. Aging of Cities ................................................................................................... 43 5. Growth of Urbanism ......................................................................................... 44 6. Rise in Fuel Prices ............................................................................................. 45 7. Successful Traffic Reducing Policies .................................................................. 46 8. Car Sharing ........................................................................................................ 48 9. Unemployment .................................................................................................. 50 10. Services Enabled by ICT ................................................................................. 51 2.2 Peak Car in Italy ...................................................................................................... 54 2.2.1 Data Sources ....................................................................................................... 54 2.2.2 Mobility Trends .................................................................................................... 55 CHAPTER 3 - THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY .......................................................... 63 3.1 Modes Comparison ................................................................................................. 64 3.1.1 Data .................................................................................................................. 64 3.1.2 Analysis ............................................................................................................. 65 3.1.3 Results................................................................................................................ 69 3.1.4 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 75 3.2 Rethink Urban Mobility ........................................................................................... 78 3.2.1 Public Transport................................................................................................... 79 3.2.2 Change the Concept of Car ..................................................................................... 81 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................... 89 References ........................................................................................................................ 97 Graph 1: Passenger Car Production in the World| 2000-2012 Trend ................................... 5 Graph 2: Passenger Car Production in the EU and GDP | 2000-2012 ................................. 5 Graph 3: Passenger Car Production and New Registrations in the EU| 2000-2012 .......... 6 Graph 4: New Passenger Car Registrations in the EU and GDP | 2000-2012 .................. 10 Graph 5: Passenger Car Production in Italy and GDP | 2000 - 2012 .................................. 18 Graph 6: Passenger Car Production and New Registrations in Italy | 1970-2012 ............. 19 Graph 7: New Passenger Car Registration in Italy and GDP | 2000-2012 ......................... 20 Graph 8: Travel time (hours per person per year), distance (Km pppy) and trips (pppy), weekdays only ................................................................................................................................. 55 Graph 9: Passenger Car Ownership - Trend 1970 - 2012 - Population age 20-75 ............ 58 Table 1: Europe Top 5 Producers ................................................................................................ 7 Table 2: Trade in Volume - Million Euros ................................................................................ 16 Table 3: Trade in Volume - Units ............................................................................................... 16 Table 4: European Automotive Employment by Sector ......................................................... 17 Table 5: Top 15 Bestselling Models in Italy | 2011 - 2012 ..................................................... 24 Table 6: New Passenger Car Registrations per Region, Top 7 | 2012 ................................. 26 Table 7: Tax Revenues from the Automotive Sector | 2008 - 2012 ..................................... 30 Table 8: Travel Demand Dynamics (absolute values in millions) .......................................... 55 Table 9: Trips by distance (percentage values) .......................................................................... 56 Table 10: Motorized travel, mode share (in million of trips, % change) ............................. 56 Table 11: Distribution of urban trips by length and means of transport used (%)............. 59 Table 12: Trends in urban density in some Italian cities (ab./sqkm), 1990-2012 ............... 61 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS La mia più profonda gratitudine va a tutti coloro che mi hanno aiutato nella stesura della tesi con suggerimenti, critiche ed osservazioni. Vorrei ringraziare anzitutto il Professor Francesco Zirpoli, per i preziosi insegnamenti durante i due anni di laurea magistrale e per le numerose ore dedicate alla mia tesi. Un sentito ringraziamento va anche al Professor Andrea Stocchetti per il tempo dedicatomi e per gli importanti spunti di riflessione e suggerimenti. Grazie ai colleghi ed agli amici che mi hanno incoraggiato e che hanno speso parte del