Journal of Hydrology 491 (2013) 23–39 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Journal of Hydrology journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol Water transfer as a solution to water shortage: A fix that can Backfire a,d, a b a c Alireza Gohari ⇑, Saeid Eslamian , Ali Mirchi , Jahangir Abedi-Koupaei , Alireza Massah Bavani , Kaveh Madani d a Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran b Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, USA c Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Abureyhan, University of Tehran, Iran d Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA article info summary Article history: Zayandeh-Rud River Basin is one of the most important basins in central Iran, which has been continually Received 19 October 2012 challenged by water stress during the past 60 years. Traditionally, a supply-oriented management Received in revised form 13 March 2013 scheme has been prescribed as a reliable solution to water shortage problems in the basin, resulting in Accepted 16 March 2013 a number of water transfer projects that have more than doubled the natural flow of the river. The main Available online 27 March 2013 objective of this study is to evaluate the reliability of inter-basin water transfer to meet the growing This manuscript was handled by Geoff Syme, Editor-in-Chief water demand in Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. A system dynamics model is developed to capture the inter- relationships between different sub-systems of the river basin, namely the hydrologic, socioeconomic, Keywords: and agricultural sub-systems. Results from simulating a range of possible policy options for resolving System dynamics water shortage problems indicate that water is essentially the development engine of the system. There- Water resources management fore, supplying more water to the basin without considering the dynamics of the interrelated problems Water transfer will eventually lead to increased water demand. It is demonstrated that the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin Zayandeh-Rud management system has characteristics of the ‘‘Fixes that Backfire’’ system archetype, in which inter- Gav-Khouni basin water transfer is an inadequate water management policy, causing significant unintended side- Iran effects. A comprehensive solution to the problem includes several policy options that simultaneously control the dynamics of the system, minimizing the risk of unintended consequences. In particular, policy makers should consider minimizing agricultural water demand through changing crop patterns as an effective policy solution for the basin’s water problems. Ó 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction evidence that water scarcity can be created or intensified by unsus- tainable decisions to meet the increasing water demands (Gleick, Water scarcity resulting from economic and population growth 1998; Cai et al., 2003). In arid regions, supply-oriented water man- is considered as one of the most important threats for human soci- agement schemes, although promising in the short-run, are typi- eties and a constraint for sustainable development (UN-Water, cally associated with unintended secondary consequences in the 2008). Within the next decades, water may become the most stra- long run (Madani and Mariño, 2009). In essence, the failure to de- tegic resource, especially in arid and semi-arid regions of the world velop sustainable water resources solutions at watershed scale is (UN-Water, 2005). Historically, policy makers in these regions have rooted in the lack of understanding about the interrelated dynam- tried to solve water scarcity problems through dam building, ics of different sub-systems of complex watershed systems (Mirchi groundwater recharge, cloud seeding, desalination, wastewater re- et al., 2010). use, and developing massive water transfer projects, among others Zayandeh-Rud River Basin is one of the most strategic Iranian (Hutchinson et al., 2010). However, there is a growing body of watersheds due to its significant agricultural, as well as industrial and environmental importance. In the past decades, growing pop- ulation, driven by urbanization, industrial, and agricultural devel- Corresponding author. Present address: Hydro-Environmental and Energy opment, coupled with occurrence of severe droughts have ⇑ Systems Analysis (HEESA) Research Group, Department of Civil, Environmental significantly increased water stress in the basin. To address this and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA. problem, different conventional engineering solutions have been Tel.: +98 311 391 3432, +1 407 823 2317; fax: +98 311 391 2254, +1 407 823 3315. practiced since 1952, including a multi-purpose reservoir and E-mail addresses: [email protected] (A. Gohari), [email protected] (S. three inter-basin water transfer projects. Given the inadequacy of Eslamian), [email protected] (A. Mirchi), [email protected] (J. Abedi-Koupaei), [email protected] (A. Massah Bavani), [email protected] (K. Madani). these projects to solve the water shortage problems, three addi- tional inter-basin water transfer projects are currently under 0022-1694/$ - see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.03.021 Downloaded from http://www.elearnica.ir 24 A. Gohari et al. / Journal of Hydrology 491 (2013) 23–39 development to increase the water supply of the basin within the sub-systems of Zayandeh-Rud River Basin system; (3) understand- next decade. ing the effects of different water management strategies and poli- Inter-basin water transfer from water-abundant regions (do- cies on the system and its sub-systems; and (4) identifying nors) to regions with water shortages (recipients) has been recog- sustainable solutions to water scarcity in the basin. A description nized as a solution to secure water supply for supporting of the study area and an overview of system dynamics and its development in recipient basins (Muller, 1999; Allan, 2003; application in water resources management are given in Sections Ballestero, 2004; Dyrnes and Vatn, 2005; Gupta and van der Zaag, 2 and 3. Sections 4 and 5 discuss the model development process 2008). Thus, numerous water transfer projects have been imple- and the results under different policy options for resolving water mented around the world (e.g., Australia (Wright, 1999), China shortagein the basin. The policy implications of the study and con- (Shao et al., 2003), Germany (Schumann, 1999), Iran (Abrishamchi clusions are given in Sections 6 and 7. and Tajirshy, 2005; Bagheri and Hjorth, 2007; Madani and Mariño, 2009), Mexico (Medellin-Azuara et al., 2011), and the United States (Israel and Lund, 1995; Varady, 1999; Lund et al. 2010; 2. Zayandeh-Rud River Basin Medellin-Azuara et al., 2011; Madani and Lund, 2012)). World- wide, approximately 14% of global water withdrawal is provided The Zayandeh-Rud River Basin (Fig. 1) covers an area of about through inter-basin water transfer projects and this portion is ex- 26,917 km2 in central Iran. Table 1 summarizes some of the main pected rise to 25% by 2025 (ICID, 2005). Water transfer initiatives characteristics of the basin. The population of the basin increased have relieved water stress by providing ‘‘sufficient’’ water for dif- from 3.1 million in 1996 to 3.7 million in 2006. More job opportu- ferent users (Muller, 1999; Ballestero, 2004), enhancing socioeco- nities and a higher economic growth relative to the neighboring nomic development (Israel and Lund, 1995; Klaphake, 2005; basins are the major reasons for immigration to the basin (Madani, Gupta and van der Zaag, 2008), and increasing freshwater avail- 2005). The basin contains six irrigation networks, located mostly in ability for ecosystem augmentation in the recipient basins the upper sub-basins that supply water for agriculture, which is (Scheuerlein, 1999; Gichuki and McCornick, 2008). However, water the major water consumer. The main traditional staple crops of transfer may entail negative long-term social, economic, and envi- the basin are wheat, rice, barley, and corn, which are highly water ronmental impacts, raising concern as to its effectiveness as a pan- consumptive. Irrigation is essential due to low precipitation cou- acea to water shortage (Matete and Hassan, 2006; Klein, 2007; pled with asynchrony between rainy and growing seasons (Zayan- Kittinger et al., 2009; Growns et al., 2009; Olden and Naiman, dab Consulting Engineering Co., 2008). Like in other parts of Iran, 2010; Yan et al., 2012). It has been argued that the need for addi- low irrigation efficiency of 34–42% is considered as one of the main tional water supply in water-deficient regions increases when reasons for high agricultural water demands. water shortage is addressed through water transfers with no con- The basin has a number of surface and groundwater resources. trol on water demand (Gichuki and McCornick, 2008). Zayandeh-Rud River with an average flow of 1400 million cubic Investigating the reasons for success or failure of water transfer meters (MCM), including 650 MCM of natural flow and 750 MCM projects can provide valuable lessons to water resources planners of transferred flow, is the main surface water resource of the basin. and policy makers, who have historically based their decisions on The river eventually flows into the Gav-Khouni