ANTICIPATION IN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Shifting from Crisis Response to Shaping Future Resilience DONNA DUPONT Submitted to OCAD University in partial fulflment of the requirements for the degree of the Master of Design in Strategic Foresight & Innovation Toronto, Ontario, Canada DONNA DUPONT, Strategic Foresight & Innovation 2020 1 ANTICIPATION IN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Shifting from Crisis Response to Shaping Future Resilience DONNA DUPONT “ The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read or write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn” Alvin Toffer, Future Shock Creative Common Copyright Notice This document is licensed under the With the understanding that: Creative Commons Attribution- You do not have to comply with the license for NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International elements of the material in the public domain 2.5 Canada License. or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ No warranties are given. 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No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits. II ANTICIPATION IN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Abstract There is a need for the feld of emergency/disaster postnormal potentiality and levels of uncertainty management to shift from managing disasters, to as a diagnostic to highlight emerging policy issues, managing current and future risks and cultivation and opportunities to evolve the system’s structure of resilience-building as core targets to be reached towards stability and building resilience. In addition, by 2030. This is an evolutionary paradigm shift. the internal paradigm perspective was explored Disasters frequently exacerbate social inequalities to understand the anticipatory narrative, futures and existing power dynamics, and exposure and literacy and mental model. This report introduces vulnerability are on the increase. Extreme weather a potential pathway for a transformed paradigm, events and the risk of failure of mitigation and with discussion for change that proposes a frst step adaptation by government and businesses are to expand perspectives by building new mindsets growing concerns. Anticipating future risks and and skill-sets to support the emerging paradigm engaging in disaster risk reduction behavior is of resilience. This report concludes on the critical critical for human survival. Paradigm shifts are need to shift from reactive thinking and actions, to a conceptual transformation, and can be viewed consciously proactive thinking in order to address as a prototype for revolutionary reorientation. system anomalies, and reimagine new potential and This research project presents a paradigm analysis possibilities to transform structures to support long- based on a survey completed by those in emergency term fundamental solutions. management. This report identifes four archetypal patterns with systemic anomalies, explores DONNA DUPONT, Strategic Foresight & Innovation III Acknowledgements This research project has been both a personal on my professional journey is deeply appreciated. and professional journey in my quest to make a Your support helped me to bridge my worlds as an meaningful contribution to the feld of emergency emergency management professional and futurist. management and futures studies. The Covid-19 Thank you for providing opportunities for me to pandemic has highlighted many vulnerabilities learn and grow. Your encouragement has made all the within our system. Crisis can spark a turning point difference and has allowed me to fnd my voice as a for change, and can provide valuable insights into the futurist. The menagerie of post-normal times – black parts of our system that are no longer sustainable. A elephants, black swans and black jellyfsh will always deep understanding of system anomalies can reveal have a place in my work. the shape and structure of the emerging paradigm, and opportunities for change and transformation. A big thank you to Dr. Jose Ramos and the team at Participatory Futures Global Swarm. Being part My interest in foresight and systems thinking started of the swarm has transformed my understanding the frst day I walked into a provincial Emergency of how we can design more inclusive futures, and Operations Centre, that was in 2009 during the H1N1 the important role of anticipatory governance. The pandemic. The level of complexity and uncertainty opportunity to present my research at the 2020 was exceptionally high. My search to acquire new UNESCO Futures Literacy Summit as part of the team skills led me to OCAD University’s Strategic Foresight was a wonderful experience. The swarm’s support & Innovation Program. This program planted many and generosity is valued and appreciated. seeds that transformed my thinking and opened up a world of new possibilities. I’m so grateful for the My deep appreciation to Dr. Leon Young from the opportunity to have been a student in this program, Australian Defence Force and Dr. Philippe Beaulieu- and I would like to extend my appreciation to all the Brossard, Dr. Paul T. Mitchell and Dr. Richard program faculty. Goette from the Canadian Forces College (CFC) for providing opportunities for me to learn and grow as A sincere thank you to my primary academic a facilitator, designer and futurist. A special thank advisor Helen Kerr. Your patience and guidance in you to Brigadier General Simon Bernard from the supporting me on this journey has meant a lot to Canadian Joint Operations Command (CJOC) for me. Thank you for asking diffcult questions and expressing an interest in my research, and sharing challenging me to dig deeper to understand systemic your knowledge and experience. I’m inspired by challenges. This has forever changed the way I CFC and CJOC’s commitment to cultivate design approach design. It was an honour to have you as my competencies within the Canadian Armed Forces to advisor. navigate a turbulent, complex and uncertain world. My heartfelt thanks to my secondary advisor Dr. My heartfelt thanks to Desiree Matel-Anderson John A. Sweeney. Your generosity in assisting me from the Field Innovation Team for the opportunity Iv ANTICIPATION IN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT to deploy into the feld post Hurricane Harvey and My deep appreciation to my family, friends and learn about vulnerability, empathy and empowering colleagues for their continuous support and local communities frsthand. The experience has had encouragement throughout this project during a a profound impact on my approach to futures and turbulent time. A special heartfelt thank you to my design. mom and sister Denise, for teaching me the power of personal resilience from the heart. A sincere thank you to Simon Wells and Dr. Justin Veuthey, co-founders of the new Canadian Journal of Lastly, my heartfelt thanks to all the emergency Emergency Management (CJEM). I’m honoured to be managers and military professionals that took time part of the CJEM Advisory and Editorial Board. I look out of their busy schedule during a pandemic to forward to continuing to collaborate and support participate in this research project. Thank you for the advancement of emergency management as a your trust, openness and honesty in sharing your profession. knowledge and experience. This greatly helped to understand the current landscape, challenges and My heartfelt thanks to my mentor Monika Turner potential opportunities ahead. Thank you for your for your wisdom and guidance throughout my career commitment to public safety and building a more and transitions, from a Respiratory Therapist - Policy resilient future. and Planning Advisor - Emergency Manager and now Foresight & Design Strategist. You have inspired me to fnd the courage to dive into important policy issues and to keep reaching to create a better future. My sincere gratitude to Patricia Kambitsch for helping me to bring my research data to life and tell the story with powerful illustrations. A big thank you to Saumya Kishore for assisting me to transform a very detailed research report into a beautiful document that is easy to navigate and read. DONNA DUPONT, Strategic Foresight & Innovation v Table of Contents Glossary viii List of Figures x List of Tables xi Introduction 1 Statement of the Problem Purpose of the Study Methods 7 Results 10 Paradigm Analysis and Understanding System Anomalies 11 A. External View - Four Archetypes in Emergency 13 Management 13 Archetype: Shifting-the-Burden 20 Archetype: Fixes-that-Fail 31 Archetype: Growth & Underinvestment 37 Archetype: Tragedy of the Commons B - Internal Perspective – The Lens of Emergency