China and the New Asian Security Concept: The Case of post-2014 Afghanistan F.P. Dijksterhuis S1455885 06.08.2016 Thesis Supervisor: dr. I. d‟Hooghe Second Reader: Prof. dr. E. Bakker i. Foreword and Acknowledgements Before you lies my thesis „China and the New Asian Security Concept - the case of post-2014 Afghanistan‟. By completing this thesis, my time at the Leiden University studying Crisis and Security Management has come to an end. In this foreword I would therefore like to thank the people that contributed to the creation of this thesis. First of all, I would like to thank my thesis supervisor dr. I. d‟Hooghe for her constructive feedback and overall guidance to help me complete my research and write this thesis. I also want to take this opportunity to acknowledge the support of my study advisor ms drs. J.A.D. den Heijer. Second, I would like to express my gratitude to my respondents dr. F.P. van der Putten, mr. R. Pantucci and dr. B. Gill for sharing their expertise on the complex case of China‟s role in Afghanistan. Lastly, I want to thank my family, girlfriend and friends for their unconditional support during my studies and during the completion of my master thesis in particular. I hope you enjoy reading this thesis, Fokko Dijksterhuis Utrecht, Augustus 2016 © Front Page Photo: Taliban militiamen chant slogans as they drive toward the front line near Kabul in November 1997. (Photo: Courtesy Reuters), derived from www.cfr.org, [accessed 12-06-16] ii. Abstract In 2014, the war in Afghanistan came to an official end. Both the U.S. and the NATO announced the end of their combat operations and transferred full security responsibility to the Afghan Security Forces. Unfortunately, this did not mean Afghanistan was no longer in a state of war. On the contrary, the security situation in Afghanistan has only deteriorated over the last years. With western troop withdrawing, people speculated about China‟s capability and willingness to fill the Afghan „security void‟. While China repeatedly stressed that it was not willing to participate in military operations, Beijing did say it was willing to play a bigger role in Afghanistan. Insights into the Chinese approach to Afghanistan can be derived from the New Asian Security Concept. This concept entails the Chinese view on how to uphold and promote international security. This thesis entails a research of China‟s conduct in post-2014 Afghanistan, by examining whether Beijing has put the principles of the New Asian Security Concept into practice in the war-torn country. Most of the findings underscore a cautionary application of the principles: an approach that could be described as both modest and significant at the same time. There is no conclusive evidence that suggests that China violates any of the principles of the New Asian Security Concept. China‟s involvement with Afghan domestic political affairs does suggest that in Afghanistan, Beijing has moved towards a more „flexible‟ interpretation of the „non-interference‟ principle. In terms of the contributions to security that the concept prescribes, China has made small, but nonetheless important steps to support the Afghan government in the period after 2014. These contributions could be interpreted as modest when considering how much more China could offer or in comparison to commitments of other countries. However, in comparison to China‟s minimal contributions prior to 2014, there are significant steps forward. Finally, China‟s efforts to put the New Asian Security Concept in practice are best expressed by its willingness to cooperate with other countries to promote Afghan stability. In sum, findings indicate a modest, but significant application of the principles of the New Asian Security Concept in post-2014 Afghanistan. Reflecting on China‟s role in international security, these findings lead to a number of observations. Most importantly, China‟s conduct in Afghanistan underscores that Beijing is more willing to get involved with its external environment. Contrary to the oft-cited conflicts in the Chinese seas, this is not an assertiveness of the perceived „aggressive‟ kind that is associated with the „China Threat‟ ideas. In this case, China‟s behavior is constructive to Afghanistan‟s security and therefore more in line with the „China‟s Peaceful Development‟ theory. At the same time, Beijing‟s approach to Afghanistan is somewhat problematic. China highlights economic development as the foundation for stability, and has indeed made economic commitments in Afghanistan to that end. However, the Afghan central government is not able to fully protect Chinese investments in the country and China is still wary to provide concrete security or military support. Without a security component to help Afghanistan safeguard investments, it is questionable whether these Chinese investments will reach their full potential, if projects reach operational stages at all. In sum, the Chinese approach on the one hand stresses the interconnectedness between economy and security. However, by mainly emphasizing the impact of economic development on security, this approach consequently tends to overlook the impact of security issues on economic development. This case-study illustrates the difficulties of applying such an approach to a fragile country like Afghanistan, where overall security is such a big issue of concern. iii. Acronyms ABP- Afghan Border Police ANSF – Afghan National Security Forces ASEAN - Association of Southeast Asian Nations CICA - Conference on Interactions and Confidence-Building in Asia CPEC- China-Pakistan Economic Corridor ETIM – East Turkestan Islamic Movement FMPRC – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People‟s Republic of China ISAF – International Security Assistance Force MFAIRA- Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan NASC – New Asian Security Concept NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization NSC – New Security Concept OBOR – One Belt, One Road PRC – The People‟s Republic of China SCO – Shanghai Cooperation Organization UN – United Nations UNAMA – United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan US – United States XUAR – Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region Table of Contents Foreword and Acknowledgements .......................................................................................... i Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... ii Acronyms ................................................................................................................................. iii 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Post-2014 Afghanistan: a „security vacuum‟? .................................................................. 1 1.2 China and Afghan stability ............................................................................................... 2 1.3 China and international security: the New Asian Security Concept................................. 4 1.4 Research question ............................................................................................................. 5 1.5 Relevance .......................................................................................................................... 6 1.6 Reading guide ................................................................................................................... 7 2. Theoretical Framework: the New Asian Security Concept .............................................. 8 2.1 The origins of the New Asian Security Concept .............................................................. 8 2.2 The New Asian Security Concept .................................................................................. 10 2.3 International criticism of the New Asian Security Concept ........................................... 12 2.4 The China threat theory .................................................................................................. 14 2.5 The New Asian Security Concept and peace-building ................................................... 15 2.6 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 17 3. Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Research design .............................................................................................................. 19 3.3 Conceptual framework .................................................................................................... 20 3.4 Data collection ................................................................................................................ 25 3.5 Limitations ...................................................................................................................... 28 4. Context – China’s interest in Afghanistan ....................................................................... 29 4.1 Geopolitical motives ...................................................................................................... 29 4.2 Economic interests ......................................................................................................... 29 4.3 Security concerns ..........................................................................................................