2 Acknowledgements and Contact Information This report was authored by Henrietta de Veer and edited by Christina Heyniger; it is produced solely by the Xola Consulting, Inc. team and is not sponsored by individual adventure industry companies nor by the national governments or tourism boards of the countries discussed in this report. All photos are by Christina Heyniger unless otherwise stated. Xola Consulting, Inc. (xolaconsulting.com) is a consulting and research services firm assisting tour operators, tourism boards and non-profit organizations with sustainable adventure tourism destination and product development, marketing and research. Xola launched Off the Radar (travelofftheradar.com) in 2005 to provide travelers with information about the best entrepreneurial adventure operators around the world – those who provide guests with a genuine, personal experience; who believe in sustainable, environmentally sensitive travel; and who believe in incorporating the local people and traditions of the places where they operate. Xola Consulting, Inc. Sante Fe, New Mexico Xolaconsulting.com Christina Heyniger President (202) 297-2206 [email protected] 3 Table of Contents Climate Change, Water Scarcity, Sustainability and Adventure Travel in Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China & Mexico (“BRICM”) .......................................................................... 4 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 4 The BRIC/BRICM Thesis........................................................................................................ 6 Climate Change and the BRICMs......................................................................................... 10 Overview of Tourism and the BRICMs ................................................................................. 13 Destination Performance Measurement and the BRICMs.................................................... 15 Brazil .................................................................................................................................. 19 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 19 Brazil’s Vulnerability to Climate Change............................................................................... 21 Brazil’s Climate-Change and Water-Infrastructure Policies.................................................. 24 Brazil’s Tourism Sector......................................................................................................... 27 The Russian Federation....................................................................................................... 37 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 37 Russia’s Vulnerability to Climate Change............................................................................. 40 Russia’s Climate-Change and Water-Infrastructure Policies................................................ 45 Russia’s Tourism Sector....................................................................................................... 46 Climate Change, Water Resources, and Sustainable Tourism and Adventure Travel in Russia ................................................................................................................................... 54 India ................................................................................................................................... 58 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 58 India’s Vulnerability to Climate Change and Water Scarcity ................................................ 62 India’s Climate-Change and Water-Infrastructure Policies................................................... 63 India’s Tourism Sector .......................................................................................................... 65 Climate Change, Water Resources, and Sustainable Tourism and Adventure Travel in India .............................................................................................................................................. 72 China.................................................................................................................................. 77 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 77 China’s Vulnerability to Climate Change .............................................................................. 79 China’s Climate-Change and Water-Infrastructure Policies ................................................. 83 China’s Tourism Sector......................................................................................................... 86 Climate Change, Water Resources, and Sustainable Tourism and Adventure Travel in China..................................................................................................................................... 95 Mexico................................................................................................................................ 99 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 99 Mexico’s Vulnerability to Climate Change .......................................................................... 102 Mexico’s Climate-Change and Water-Infrastructure Policies ............................................. 104 Mexico’s Tourism Sector..................................................................................................... 108 Climate Change, Water, Resources, Sustainable Tourism and Adventure Travel in Mexico ............................................................................................................................................ 115 Sources : Climate Change, Water Scarcity, Sustainability and Adventure Travel in Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China & Mexico ......................................................................... 118 4 Climate Change, Water Scarcity, Sustainability and Adventure Travel in Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China & Mexico (“BRICM”) Overview The issues and trends discussed in the 2009 Adventure Industry Research Roundup show a picture of growing complexity: there is so much happening on a global basis, with rapidly converging trends affecting a wide range of economies, industries and population groups around the world. Nowhere is it seen more starkly than in travel and tourism, an industry operating at the intersection of multiple industries and markets. To complement the 2009 Roundup, we offer the following analyses of specific countries that represent both rapidly emerging destinations for adventure tourism as well as sources for the next generation of travelers. We also provide snapshots of how adventure tourism is evolving on the ground in key regions of the world in a time of rapidly increasing concerns on climate change and water scarcity. We have focused on the BRICMs (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and Mexico), clearly emerging rapidly on a global basis economically but also providing interesting comparisons across many criteria, which will have implications not only for how adventure travel will evolve and develop in each of the countries but also for how each country’s consumers will become the next generation of adventure travelers. All five of the countries are facing significant challenges from climate change, hydrological variability and resulting water stress. Broadly speaking, over the last year, there has been progress amongst the BRICM countries, with all developing plans to reduce emissions: In particular, Mexico with recently set stringent emissions reductions, China focused on the implementation of energy efficiency targets, and Brazil with goals to reduce deforestation. However, though their views appear to be moderating, Brazil, India and China in particular have to date been outspoken in their views that the developed world must take dramatic steps to cut emissions ahead of the developing world and also bear the costs of climate-change mitigation and adaptation strategies adopted by the developing world going forward. At the present time, Brazil, India and China will not sign agreements that set mandatory emissions-reduction targets. 5 In terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, Mexico is leading the way, with China second, while Brazil and India have, surprisingly, not been as proactive. In a break with the rest of the BRICMs, Mexico has come out with a very ambitious program to cut emissions in half by mid-century and to move quickly toward a low-carbon economy. Mexico has also put forward a plan for a global climate-change mitigation and adaptation fund. These moves put the country in a strong position to be a leader in the climate-change debate over the coming years. China is less developed in its strategy, but it has put forward a plan that, if implemented, could slow emissions growth substantially. Brazil has historically had the position of being a leader in the climate-change debate. It uses a great deal of hydropower, a renewable source of energy, and ethanol is a major driver of its transportation sector. However, the continuing deforestation