BUFFALO BRANCH, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK THE REGIONAL ECONOMY OF UPSTATE NEW YORK Economic Restructuring in Western New York State Over the past three decades, Buffalo and employment in Rochester’s signature Fall 2001 Rochester have seen their economies photographic equipment industry dropped dramatically restructured. In 1969, the two only 28 percent over the same period. Our metropolitan areas—the largest in western analysis shows that both cities have developed new specializations in consumer services— Buffalo Branch, New York—were both major centers of Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing. Buffalo had a relatively particularly in the areas of health and of New York diverse manufacturing base with particular education—and in “producer” services 160 Delaware Avenue strength in steel and automobiles, while targeted to other businesses. Buffalo has Buffalo, NY 14202 Rochester was highly specialized in the established a presence in commercial banking Tel: (716)849-5023 and mortgage brokerage services, while Fax: (716) 849-5218 production of photographic equipment. In the years that followed, however, the economies Rochester has excelled in high-growth services Barbara Walter of both cities were reshaped by national and such as communications and computer and Senior Vice President international forces: competition from data-processing. and Branch Manager manufacturers abroad, the relocation of factories from the Northeast to the South and Traded Goods and Services Reggie Melson In tracking structural changes, we focus on the Community Affairs West, and the emergence of high-level service Representative industries in which the United States showed industries that drive local economies: traded [email protected] a clear competitive advantage. As a goods and services. These industries are able consequence, in both cities, manufacturing to export their products and thus bring in Richard Deitz, Ph.D. revenues from outside the region.3 Regional Economist declined sharply as services rose in [email protected] importance. By 1999, service industries had The traded goods and services sector can thoroughly eclipsed manufacturing as a source be subdivided into three categories: goods Ramon Garcia of employment (Chart 1).1 Assistant Economist production and distribution (GP&D), producer [email protected] In this edition of the Regional Economy, services, and consumer services. GP&D we explore the distinctive patterns of Buffalo includes all agricultural, mining, and For the online version and Rochester’s economic restructuring in manufacturing industries, as well as those of this and other industries that transport and distribute goods economic research detail. We compare the broad structural published by the changes in Buffalo’s economy with those in wholesale—freight transport, trucking, Federal Reserve Bank Rochester’s, and the changes in both warehousing, and wholesale trade. The of New York, visit: metropolitan economies with those in the producer services category encompasses www.newyorkfed.org/ national economy. We also seek to understand industries that sell primarily to other rmaghome/regional the roots of these changes through an analysis businesses, providing intermediate inputs in Upcoming Event of industry-level data. What industries in each the production of final goods and services. The Office of Regional city have experienced significant employment Producer services can be further broken down Community Affairs at the gains and losses, and how have the cities’ into financial producer services, such as Federal Reserve Bank of industry specializations changed? banking, insurance, and real estate, and New York and its Buffalo nonfinancial producer services, such as Branch will host two We find that although Buffalo and luncheon roundtable computer and data-processing services, legal discussions exploring Rochester remain highly dependent on goods services, and accounting. The final category, Equity Capital in rural production and distribution, both cities have consumer services, consists of services communities.There will followed the national trend away from goods performed by physicians, professors, and other be one in Plattsburgh, producing industries and toward service skilled professionals and sold directly to NY on December 3 and industries.2 Buffalo has progressed further one in Canandaigua, NY consumers. than Rochester in this restructuring of its on December 6. To Note that many of the industries within register, please call 212- economy—in large part because its 720-5349 or e-mail manufacturing industries have suffered more the traded goods and services sector produce [email protected] severe job losses. Employment in Buffalo’s for local consumption as well as export, and two largest industries, steel and autos, dropped some serve local markets predominately. A 70 percent between 1969 and 1997, while good portion of health, education, and THE REGIONAL ECONOMY Chart 1 Chart 2 Manufacturing and Service Employment: Percentage Share of Earnings by Major Category Buffalo and Rochester Metro Areas, 1969-99 of Traded Goods and Services: Rochester and Buffalo Metro Areas and the Nation, 1969-99 Thousands of jobs 250 1969 1999 Goods Production and Distribution 200 Rochester Rochester Buffalo 150 manufacturing Buffalo service United States 100 Producer Services Rochester Buffalo service manufacturing Rochester 50 Buffalo 0 1969 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 United States Consumer Services Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Rochester communications services, for example, are provided to the local Buffalo community. Nevertheless, the producers of these services also target customers outside the region and can be active in external United States markets. Note too that in this sector, nonfinancial producer 0 102030405060 services and consumer services have made a particularly Percentage share of earnings important contribution to U.S. job growth over the past three Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional decades. Economic Information System, authors' calculations. The Rise of the Service Economy from producer services was still only about half that from GP&D. Analyzing earnings within the three categories of traded goods The share of earnings claimed by consumer services grew at a and services over time provides a good way to establish the similar pace in Rochester, Buffalo, and the United States between relative importance of each category and to observe broad 1969 and 1999, although the western New York cities were structural trends. Chart 2 shows the percentage of total earnings somewhat more dependent on this category than the nation. attributable to each of the categories in 1969 and 1999 for Buffalo, Rochester, and the United States. Overall, the patterns are largely Limiting our focus to Buffalo and Rochester, we observe consistent across both cities and the country as a whole: by that Buffalo experienced a greater relative decline in GP&D— undergoing a reduction in the production and distribution of and a larger relative increase in traded services—than did goods and an increase in the provision of traded services, Buffalo Rochester. This finding suggests that economic restructuring is and Rochester have followed the national trend. further along in Buffalo than in Rochester. Nevertheless, GP&D has historically dominated the traded How Have Industry Employment Patterns Shifted? goods and services sector in both metropolitan areas, and it Industry employment data provide another lens through which continues to claim a significantly larger share of earnings than to view the structural transformations of the Buffalo and either producer or consumer services. In 1969, GP&D was Rochester economies. By analyzing which industries within the responsible for about 50 percent of earnings in Rochester and traded goods and services sector have experienced significant Buffalo, compared with 38 percent in the United States as a job gains and losses, we obtain a more precise understanding of whole. By 1999, GP&D’s share of earnings had dropped to 36 the changing makeup of the cities’ economies and the shifts in percent in Rochester and 30 percent in Buffalo, while in the their industry specializations. While we would like to track these United States it had fallen to 26 percent. changes over the 1969-99 period, we have comparable data for 4 Producer services’ share of earnings increased significantly 1969 and 1997 only. between 1969 and 1999 in both Buffalo and Rochester—almost The distribution of employment within the traded goods and doubling. In the nation as a whole, producer services increased services sector for 1969 and 1997 is shown in Table 1. Goods proportionally. However, because the United States has production and distribution is broken down into five industry historically been more dependent on producer services than groups: western New York State, the growth in this category raised producer services’ share of total U.S. earnings to 25 percent, • resource-based manufacturing (agriculture, mining, just shy of the share of U.S. earnings from GP&D. By contrast, steel, and paper) in the western New York metropolitan areas, the share of earnings Buffalo Branch - FRBNY 2 Table 1 Distribution of Employment within the Traded Goods and Services Sector: Rochester and Buffalo, 1969 and 1997 Buffalo Rochester United States 1969 1997 1969-971969 1997 1969-97 1969-97 Employ. LQ Employ.